Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[blizzard81]

30 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Big climb-down from ECM on level of blocking this evening, good job it isn't yet the season of madness. 

Indeed. The difference between this run and this morning's is laughable. 

[feb1991blizzard]

10 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

It's October, so why not drag the CFS out and say hello November. 

Always held this model in high regard.....  we can dream right...

It is pretty bullish about Russia going into the freezer and parts of Eastern Europe as early as the end of October.. I'm sure we could make an anagram of bullish if we can throw a "t" in.

 

There's been a few good runs for late Oct and early Nov, the next 9 month run to come out will bee a stonker for mid November as well, the 6z 9 mois 3/10/2017 - should be out around 2am.

[Stozzy]

35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There's been a few good runs for late Oct and early Nov, the next 9 month run to come out will bee a stonker for mid November as well, the 6z 9 mois 3/10/2017 - should be out around 2am.

Is that not the same model that predicted constant easterlies / northerlies all last winter that never materialised ? 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Stozzy said:

Is that not the same model that predicted constant easterlies / northerlies all last winter that never materialised ? 

It predicted a wide range of things over a month out but usually corrected to mild around 1-1 and a half months out.

[knocker]

Pretty close to the ecm

 

[knocker]

The detail for today and tonight quite complicated so this is very broad brush.

currently wet and strong winds in N. Scotland, heavy showers in the central area, cloudy with some drizzle in the north of England and elsewhere not bad with a fairly bright start to the day. But this will change quite rapidly by the afternoon as cloud, rain, and strong winds arrive in N. Ireland and then the north of England as the wave depression develops to the west and moves rapidly east to be Tyneside 999mb at 00. So in a nutshell strong gale force winds and bouts of heavy heavy rain in many areas later before things quietening down tomorrow with showers in the north and west.

Back with the gfs and we have ridging over the UK on Friday but with the high pressure centred as ever to the south west and this is always prone to systems progressing, around the top and temporarily suppressing the ridge which allows weakening fronts to cross the UK as seen on Saturday and Monday.

Throughout the week this changeable picture continues and in fact becomes more unsettled as the Atlantic starts revving up and the troughs to the NW/N become more influential with periods of rain and gale force winds are on the cards at times, albeit still with a NW/SE bias

So in summation a continuation of the unsettled theme, in fact more so as the ten day period progresses, with temps varying around the average and precipitation confirming the NW/SE bias. the output this morning also falls well withing the pattern indicated by the mean anomalies of the increasing influence of the Greenland.Iceland upper trough

 

[knocker]

The ecm output is generally very similar to the gfs and it also becomes very unsettled towards the middle and end of next week with periods of rain and probably gales courtesy the upper trough

Edited October 4, 2017 by knocker

[johnholmes]

Just to add to the posts knocker does each morning, thanks for these k, good place to get a quick idea of how things seem to be shaping up.

Re the 3 anomaly charts I use all 3 in varying degrees suggest the 6-10 day period is going to have a 500 mb trough in the vicinity of the UK. Differing details but that is the overall idea it seems to me. Beyond that and NOAA 10-14 suggests a somewhat flatter Atlantic flow and with little indication of any marked height rises pretty much anywhere on the chart.

Anyway below are the links for folks to give their own interpretations.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[Polar Maritime]

Already covered very well by Knocker, But here's a snapshot of this evening & overnight from NetWx-SR in-house Model. Some pretty high rainfall totals for some with gales locally for the Midlands/Wales & Northern England. One to keep an eye on as theres still time for slight adjustments.

 

[karlos1983]

Yes, also peak gusts look to coincide with high tide for Blackpool as an example, so could be some big waves. 

Done a little mock up below that shows detail. (GFS HR)

Bit far for a road trip for me 

Edited October 4, 2017 by karlos1983

[karlos1983]

Extended outook to my eye looks "blocky" I think looking at this tweet  for us? Tired to embed tweet but didn't work, so below are the images from the tweet (if that's allowed)? Higher than normal heights to our North and North East as time progresses.

https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/915539416252403719

 

 

Edited October 4, 2017 by karlos1983

[phil nw.]

As we head further into Autumn we can see the increasing influence of the expanding Canadian/Greenland trough.Here on the UKMO model

 

So with time the more unsettled conditions further north will become more widespread next week as the Azores ridging is flattened.

Edited October 4, 2017 by phil nw.

[knocker]

No great surprise that the ecm is very unsettled for the last part of the run with a deep upper trough ensconced in the eastern Atlantic.

[Newberryone]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

No great surprise that the ecm is very unsettled for the last part of the run with a deep upper trough ensconced in the eastern Atlantic.

The last chart, Ecm day 10 that is, would suggest there's the possibility that any unsettled spell may be relatively short lived. The vast area of high pressure in mid Atlantic will more than likely topple in behind that vigorous low, having the effect of at least quietening things down a tad, especially for more southern areas. 

Edited October 4, 2017 by Newberryone

[damianslaw]

A broadly westerly airstream set to dominate affairs, only tentative weak ridging, with low pressure gaining the upper hand - text book autumnal October fayre. Longer term, signs the jet may elongate again and align on a NW-SE axis, with a deepened long wave trough making its home over the eastern atlantic, turning it cooler for all, and under any clearer conditions courtesy of weak ridging cold at night - tomorrow synoptics are foretaste for mid month I think..

[knocker]

As far as the UK is concerned the key aspects of last night's GEFS, EPS and NOAA anomalies continue to be be low pressure N. Canada with associated negatively tilted Greenland/Iceland trough and the twin trough/ridge scenario in eastern Europe.Thus a very strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic into the UK indicating a period of unsettled weather with temps around average. The one fly in the ointment to this straightforward scenario is the GEFS which has a different orientation of the Greenland trough which could promote pressure rises in the eastern Atlantic to some extent and perhaps a more N/S split over the UK.

There is no agreement in the ext period with the GEFS continuing to retrogress the Greenland trough and build positive anomalies in the east whilst the others are not that interested although the EPS does nod in that direction towards the end. So for the moment a watching brief for a couple of days but perhaps indications of more settle weather towards the end of the period, certainly in the south.

Meanwhile back to the here and now. last night's low moves quickly east and at the moment a front lies across the midlands moving south and should clear the cloud and rain into the Channel by late morning. The UK will then be left in a cool NW airstream as the ridge moves in  with most of the showers and stronger winds in the north west.  These will tend to die out and the wind to ease overnight and there could well be some ground frost in places before the next system edges in from the west as tomorrow progresses.

.There is not a lot to say about the gfs output this morning without sounding like a stuck record. The aforementioned front duly crosses the UK on Saturday bringing light rain as it does before the ridge once again briefly moves in on Sunday before the next low 980mb arrives south west of Iceland by 12 Monday with the associated fronts already impacting N. Ireland and Scotland. The front and rain track south east over Monday and the low does likewise and impacts Scotland in the early hours of Tuesday bringing more rain and perhaps some strong winds for a time,

The rest of the week, including the weekend, is dominated by the usual battle between the eastward bound energy/troughs and the Azores resulting a strong westerly gradient and very much a N/S split over the UK

[stainesbloke]

We got off fairly lightly this morning, parts of Benelux, Germany and the Czech Republic are being battered by wind gusts of up to 70mph.

[knocker]

Yes as the models were forecasting some time ago. I think they did a pretty good job with this tricky low from the get go

[Man With Beard]

Hey, nice shape on the chart for a little warm spell modelled on ECM/GFS tonight. Low twenties possible from that

    

[LightningLover]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Hey, nice shape on the chart for a little warm spell modelled on ECM/GFS tonight. Low twenties possible from that

    

nooooooooo, I want cold, wintry, crisp weather!

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, LightningLover said:

nooooooooo, I want cold, wintry, crisp weather!

ok would this do for you?

[knocker]

After quite a chilly start today will start bright and sunny in most areas and will remain so in England and Wales but cloud and some rain, associated with the next depression tracking NE, will impact N. Ireland and then western Scotland later in the day bringing cloud and some rain. These will track SE across the country on Saturday, clearing behind with showers but remaining cloudy with outbreaks of rain further south.

There is not too much to say this morning about the gfs  that differs from earlier scripts so will keep the waffle to a minimum. Essentially will are looking at changeable weather becoming more unsettled next week

Sunday sees some brief ridging but by Monday the next fronts have arrived bringing more rain as they cross the country Monday evening/Tuesday with a slight complication as disturbances occur in the circulation of the main low near Iceland and track quickly east bringing more intense rain and briefly strong winds to northern Scotland. After these clear for the next couple of days the UK is in a brisk westerly regime bringing showers to many areas with again the south and east tending to be drier bur by Thursday 00 the next low has arrived NW of Ireland again tracking north east on a very strong 500mb gradient.

The low continues to deepen and the associated fronts traverse the country on Thursday bring rain to all, particularly Scotland; accompanied by strong winds which could well be gale force in N. Ireland, Scotland and N. England. These clear quickly but there is little respite as the next quite intense low zips into N. Ireland by Friday evening bringing more rain to all and briefly more gales perhaps in the north

This morning's GEFS supports the det (or I should say the other way around) with the Greenland/Iceland upper trough dominating proceedings and the precipitation illustrates the NW/SE bias in this pattern

[knocker]

no great new revelations with the ecm, perhaps slightly more emphasis on a N/S split but this can vary from run to run.

[Man With Beard]

Still showing the UK in a prime position for mid-October warmth this morning

  

 

It is currently remarkably hot over Iberia (still in the 90s) - what these charts show is something sourced not far from there, but some small adjustments could see very warm weather head our way, particular if a front stalls against the high and turns the flow more Sly rather than SWly.

 

SOmething more like this

 

Edited October 6, 2017 by Man With Beard

[Man With Beard]

Well like last night, I see my tone regarding some warmer weather did not go down well with everyone, so I'll try to fit in round here by reporting on tonight's charts in a more Netweather-like way:

      

Disappointingly, this poor October looks like going on and on. The charts above show that we are stuck in mild muck, even potentially record breaking mild muck if there's a straight draw from Iberia. Unfortunately, we are faced with t-shirt weather and the endless misery of sunny days and BBQ evenings for some time. Hopefully, the fronts from the Atlantic will push the warm southerly draw quickly so we can get our umbrellas out again and put the heating on again soon.

Edited October 6, 2017 by Man With Beard