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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The low, 977mb at 00, is currently way west of Ireland with fronts approaching same and over the next 36 hours it will track north east to be north of Scotland by Tuesday 00. On it's travels it will bring a fair amount of rain to the north west, particularly western Scotland accompanied by some strong winds. Once this general rain has cleared  the UK will be in an unstable north westerly with frequent squally showers but again the north being the worst affected as high pressuremoves  in from the south west.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.e74308d2a3d04f3522bb91c40ae797a3.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.3ac20469b311905155d3b8fbd0396d0a.gifaccumprecip_d02_49.thumb.png.d51b035c76da85ef78480fb3bb08a55c.png

The fronts that have absorbed Maria bring some light rain to the south west Monday evening before the next set of fronts arrive over Scotland Wednesday evening' quickly joined by a small low that has formed in the circulation of the main low pressure area which is now east of Iceland. Thus more rain, and perhaps briefly strong winds for a time in the north, and the rain will spread south as the fronts track south east on Thursday. So by the end of the week we find the Azores HP becoming more influential but as ever it's orientation to the south west is not ideal as systems can, and do, nip around the top.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_16.thumb.png.49035e32cc68d5f124a7b58205306313.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_21.thumb.png.d8cbf671fa176b65db21965606dce1ea.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_27.thumb.png.420b4a65a627efca34831d1114b63b1b.png

And so on and so on. All in all rather a benign period of weather for the next ten days apart from the north at times, with temps varying around the average.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_39.thumb.png.8484f083683d581a0fd6ad847c5561c4.pnggfs_tprecip_uk2_39.thumb.png.85ec8280895eaacfd4c2ffa4bfbcf150.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Differences between the GFS and Euro this morning in that the Euro has both a stronger jet and a more amplified one so that the UK is quite cool and unsettled. GFS keeps the high pressure somewhere near. 

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Perhaps one thing worth mentioning this week is as the main low sinks south east into the Baltic States it will likely initiate northerly gales in the North Sea which could well impinge on the east coast. Might be a case for thermals if on an Autumn break at Skeggy

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_19.thumb.png.caf1b60f07dcd97f540f95e026fcf296.pnggfs_t850a_natl_20.thumb.png.b0c6a48389d4dd612dd834f20a22b4d0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Hello All and Hope you have had a great weekend. Both gfs and ecm show a traditional spell of Autumn weather , and now the muddy waters of the ex Hurricanes moving away , both models show cold and milder spells with some fine weather in between with some weak ridges building allowing for some sparkling sunshine by day but some frost at night. Overall the Atlantic wins out ,so I should imagine the Scottish Mountains at times will see some snow in the next ten days .....Ps ...Nice to hear the BBC using the word cold rather than cool . perhaps they have listened to me!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
21 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hello All and Hope you have had a great weekend. Both gfs and ecm show a traditional spell of Autumn weather , and now the muddy waters of the ex Hurricanes moving away , both models show cold and milder spells with some fine weather in between with some weak ridges building allowing for some sparkling sunshine by day but some frost at night. Overall the Atlantic wins out ,so I should imagine the Scottish Mountains at times will see some snow in the next ten days .....Ps ...Nice to hear the BBC using the word cold rather than cool . perhaps they have listened to me!!!

edmund.png

edmundx.png

... or maybe because there is actually some cold weather in the offing, rather than just cool weather. :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The weather today, and to a much lesser extent tomorrow, over the UK will be dominated by the main area of low pressure currently to the north of Scotland. The winds being the main feature in the W/NW flow, particularly in N. Ireland, Scotland and the north of England where gusts up to 60mph are possible. Frequent squally showers in these areas as well so all in all a quite unpleasant day.

Much less so on both counts further south although the frontal remains of Maria will bring light rain for a time the SW/S for a time this evening.

A much quieter day tomorrow, although still breezy in Scotland, as the Azores HP ridges in from the south west.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.ac89c9856b818082a1216dd393a0c4a3.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.af46c8aad027950d65a3898c0c5934f9.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.c644a81bde05dc65426a56cbaed75d36.gif

Wednesday dawns fairly quiet in England and Wales but a front and rain is quickly into Scotland and the gfs has a small low developing on it and the whole caboodle tracks south east overnight to be in over the Netherlands Thursday morning. Thus by 00 Friday with the main low now down over the Baltic States and the Azores HP ridging quite strongly to the west the wind veers northerly over the UK bringing showers to the north west and gales in the North Sea which may just impact the east coast as well

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_13.thumb.png.ce0a037adc6bf8ee46f47dbad6876fe7.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_17.thumb.png.bc66829400f5208cff8d13275463a384.png

From here and into next week the high pressure generally holds sway but with the Atlantic continuing to knock on the door weakening a fronts do make progress east although as usual having more impact in the west and north west. So still looking like a rather benign seven or eight days with again any significant rainfall confined to the W/NW of Scotland. I haven't got around to taking a close look at the anomalies this morning but certainly last night the EPS was indicating a more unsettled spell, with temps below average, starting from around the middle of next week as it develops the Greenland trough in the eastern Atlantic.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_28.thumb.png.b9d7904c9fdb59dbb09a86d8ce15b20d.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_35.thumb.png.935cf32ecb03484986d10d2efc713d33.pnggfs_tprecip_uk2_36.thumb.png.6264c02ada9180e96ae49b98aca41be3.png

 

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Broadly speaking the ecm is not too different to the gfs until next week where it maintains strong heights to the NE blocking the troughs to the NW As this is marked change from the previous run best wait for the EPS

ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.e44621421b405cace70dc1d12f48dada.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

To me it just looks like a continuation of what we've seen through most of the summer....

ECM1-192.GIF?12

Models forecast a decent height build around the UK in the medium term, only for low pressure to be much more dominant nearer the time:

ECM1-72.GIF?02-12

Nothing to get overly excited about today. Let's just plod along for the next 6 weeks until it's cold enough for silly season to be in full effect.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

At first glance this morning at the GEFs, EPS and NOAA anomalies does not instill high confidence in the evolution but on closer inspection it would appear to be a matter of timing. The GEFS is very much at odds with the EPS but wind it on a day or two and it falls into line as seen below. So keeping that in mind the outlook for the next 14 days, apart from a short period when the Azores HP may become more influential, remains changeable and in fact there are indications that it will become more unsettled with temps dipping below average.

So essentially we have low pressure over N. Canada/Greenland, positive anomalies in the Svalbard/Franz Joseph area and a trough south east Europe Thus a strong upper westerly flow in mid Atlantic abating somewhat and tending to split as it nears our shores which portends changeable conditions over the UK with nothing too drastic and temps around average. As ever the det runs will sort the detail

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.47771a2f35aa2dee78218284f35b519b.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_47.thumb.png.ad9a88bee1bfbd59bb8eb98d2282e3e6.png610day_03.thumb.gif.3b8e85d7038cc336665ddb5716760d53.gif

As already alluded too earlier in the ext period the Greenland trough starts taking closer order stretching south east to the UK and with possible height rises in the western Atlantic (the GEFS currently makes a bit more of this) which would indicate the aforementioned unsettled weather with temps dipping below average.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.8729da5c97ddfc0c7c094015fb52349d.png814day_03.thumb.gif.a74a4c0ee5b00375874051a4ca686e21.gif

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

After a not bad day tomorrow the ecm whips the little feature into the north late Weds and tracks it south overnight  to introduce some quite inclement weather into northern Germany and a showery north westerly flow over the UK.  This veers quite quickly northerly as the Azores ridges strongly to the west and briefly there are gale force winds in the North Sea which just impact the east coast.

The ridge is very transient and is quickly squashed by the energetic Atlantic and an unsettled westerly regime becomes more influential  The end of this run is a million miles from the previous.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_4.thumb.png.a4fa5a7b7905505aff0f425f035fde13.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_6.thumb.png.3dc6f513e514017f5e236a1fadc45ea6.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_8.thumb.png.77b07973f76e43d0f230a2a898e5a74d.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Very standard early October fayre on the cards. Changeable is the word to describe the outlook, broadly atlantic driven with weak azores high ridging by the end of the week. Thursday and Friday will bring quite chilly conditions as winds turn to the NW. By the weekend back to a westerly/south westerly flow.

Longer term - signals portend to the a deep longwave trough digging down from Greenland with the jet aligned more NW-SE hence a propensity for cooler conditions mid month - certainly cool enough for some snow on highest scottish ground. The synoptics of Thursday evidence that the trough is gaining the upper hand against any ridging. 

I'm seeing a very seasonal October on the way, bit of everything, gales, blasts of rain, some wintry precipitation very highest ground, and some drier frosty conditions at times, most likely third week of Oct.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening! Well an undulating jet stream bring just about everything Autumn offers Enjoy as this is proper Autumn certainly different from the previous few....Just heads up for Scotland during Wednesday time , a very strong jet streak associated with a small but viscious low pressure system may bring some daminging winds for a time ,one to watch.....

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

With low pressure to the north of Scotland and high pressure pushing in from the south west the UK is  in a north westerly surface flow. Still quite breezy in the north, but less so than of late and fewer showers. but lighter winds further south. The wind picking up once again later to night as a cold front pushes into Scotland accompanied by more rain.

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Apart from Scotland where it is wet and very windy once again tomorrow will be a fine day for the rest of the UK but it get it gets quite interesting later as a wave depression tracks very quickly east to be over N. Ireland by 1800 as it begins to swing southeast across England and Wales  Over the next 18 hours the depression duly tracks into Poland whilst the front and rain slide slowly south to be just clearing the south coast by 12 Thursday leaving the UK in a light north westerly flow as the Azores HP ridges in and briefly some strong winds down the east coast.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_8.thumb.png.412b17a87abc5fabbaad7378c313d2d6.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_11.thumb.png.b9a353d53dfce4d01ab25a8f20fe7ded.png

What follows over the weekend and well into next week is the usual battle between the troughs to the NW/N and Azores HP to the SW/S or if you like the cooler and warmer air. How  they phase very much determines the detail of the weather over the UK.which so often has a N/S bias in these patterns. Thus over the weekend the ridge is quickly squashed as fronts push in from the west before again reasserting itself before once more fronts encroach from the north west by the beginning of the week. This is probably best illustrated by a quick look at the 500mb wind field with strong winds running ENE marking the 'boundary' between the airmasses.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_19.thumb.png.d230fbda6e286a662a5dae2f62f3c8a4.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_27.thumb.png.cf1b3e2aacf5c46ffeee7cff05b334d1.pnggfs_uv500_natl_27.thumb.png.bdd9bbe0cf3c64d6a2e0f9c57c86475f.png

This continues until midweek when the trough begins to gain ascendancy and dominate, much along the lines indicated by the anomalies and some quite wet and windy weather could be in the offing with severe gales, but of course this is way down the road.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_41.thumb.png.31b6f83e4fb5977e1bccf620076e16b8.pnggfs_uv500_natl_27.thumb.png.9e7705b07536cf9da6e9c3e042ec224a.png

In a nutshell changeable, with the usual N/S bias, for the foreseeable, deteriorating as next week progresses with the possibility of gales, perhaps severe at times.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I've just noticed I've posted to wrong chart at the end there and now of course I can't correct it. I meant to post this 250mb chart showing the very strong jet and not to repeat the other chart.

gfs_uv250_natl_40.thumb.png.dd608d966a37722b5ea53b2d64ff6ebf.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Looking at the ecm, and I tended to skate over this earlier, this little depression tomorrow night could bring some heavy rain and, briefly, some some strong winds to the north and the Midlands overnight.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Need to keep an eye on the low developing later tomorrow and into Thursday it could give a period of heavy rain and strong winds for some parts

ECU1-48.GIF.thumb.png.347e03727d102ea6fc8fb8da8692a1da.png

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Need to keep an eye on the low developing later tomorrow and into Thursday it could give a period of heavy rain and strong winds for some parts

ECU1-48.GIF.thumb.png.347e03727d102ea6fc8fb8da8692a1da.png

much as the post above from knocker!

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

As Knocker stated above  a nasty little feature could effect parts of the North of England , Midlands,Wales over the next few days.  Arpege 0z  take on the wind speeds  show a vast area could be exposed to 50-65 Mph winds    

arpegeuk-11-54-0.png

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
3 hours ago, knocker said:

I've just noticed I've posted to wrong chart at the end there and now of course I can't correct it. I meant to post this 250mb chart showing the very strong jet and not to repeat the other chart.

gfs_uv250_natl_40.thumb.png.dd608d966a37722b5ea53b2d64ff6ebf.png

This isn't entirely unexpected with a tight thermal gradient off the NE of the USA/Canada:

gfsnh-1-234.png

I've got a feeling this autumn will be more stormy than average!

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

It's October, so why not drag the CFS out and say hello November. :whistling:

cfs.thumb.png.93c5b8147f8d2105d3acd784472987d7.png59d35c4b836ea_CFS850.thumb.png.d14dfc968f001d4fe06d258e559b7268.png

Always held this model in high regard..... :ninja: we can dream right...

It is pretty bullish about Russia going into the freezer and parts of Eastern Europe as early as the end of October.. I'm sure we could make an anagram of bullish if we can throw a "t" in.

coldies.thumb.png.286f29dc68531dc989965de0247959d6.png

 

Copious amounts of Northerly blocking around in the charts at the moment and the PV doesn't look like ramping up soon. A proper cold end to October and start to November is not out the equation if this continues.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Big climb-down from ECM on level of blocking this evening, good job it isn't yet the season of madness. :D

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