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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Leaving aside the medium term outlook this morning as there was no good agreement between the anomalies last night, particularly the GEFS and EPS. Suffice it to say the percentage play is remaining unsettled but the Azores could play a more influential role in the south with the upper flow remaining westerly but perhaps veering a possibility.

On to more pressing matters. Today the remnants of the overnight front should quickly clear the east coast leaving a fairly warm pleasant start to the day for most. But the occlusion from the deep depression west of Ireland is already affecting the latter and the western side of the UK with cloud and slight rain and this will move east during the morning and early afternoon, fragmenting  as it goes. Clear with showers behind the front.

Saturday starts fine and will remain so for the eastern and northern half but the Atlantic is busy getting itself sorted and fronts from the next major low are approaching the SW coast by early afternoon, ex tropical storm Lee has merged into one of them, and they will slowly move east during the latter part of the day. So for most Saturday not too bad.

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So on to this morning's gfs. By 12 Sunday one lot of fronts have cleared the south but the main low is now NW of Scotland where it is still wet and windy and fading ex tropical storm Maria is away to the south west about to slip into the main circulation.

This it duly does as it merges into the frontal system and runs quickly ENE into the north of England and Scotland bringing more rain and possibly westerly gales early Monday and these will slide across the rest of the UK during the day as the main low tracks more ESE.

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Essentially what happens for the rest of the week and the weekend is basically what the anomalies are indicating and that is the interplay between the energy driven troughs tracking east and the Azores attempting to ridge north and it is how this phasing occurs that determines the detail. Thus a somewhat changeable week, as noted for Weds/Thurs, but tending very much towards the proverbial N/S split. temps varying around the average,

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm has some very inclement weather for Scotland by 12 Sunday with fronts from the main low to the north west bringing heavy rain with westerly gales, perhaps severe The heavy rain swings north east during the afternoon as the trailing front crosses England

In the meantime the decaying Maria is away to the WSW which quickly becomes absorbed into the front which tracks quickly east to be over Cornwall by 00 Tuesday.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
4 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

I know it's right at the end of FI and has practically zero chance of happening but, looks like quite a potent arctic blast lining up in the GFS.

Roll on winter! :):cold:

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Yep, if this was Mid winter and I had faith in long range GFS I'd be quite exited looking at this!! Shame it's not, still, nice to see what "could" be!!  

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

NetWx-MR in house Model's take on wind gusts re Sunday/Modays Low. 

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Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 6z shows plenty of chilly very unsettled weather at times with even a risk of sleet and snow on northern hills / mountains..great to see!..looking forward to the first wintry showers and proper frosts sometime in october!:cold::D 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

No sign of anything chilly with the 12oz. Looking fairly well on one side of average or on the other side of average.  Nothing really stormy either shown either. Looking fairly unremarkable so far.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There's something for everyone on the Gfs 12z which shows some pleasant settled weather at times, especially further south with chilly nights bringing mist and fog patches and cold enough for a touch of frost in rural areas but there is also some chilly unsettled spells too, especially further north, possibly cold enough for some wintry ppn on the Scottish mountains at times. We are heading towards more interesting times for coldies if we get polar / arctic maritime incursions..hopefully there will be plenty of that during the coming months!:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Once the weekend is out of the way the ecm has the Azores high pressure ridging north to the west of the UK but more of interest it has an upper trough centred near Greenland stretching a long way south west This spawns some very active lows in the region north east of Florida and one of them tracks quickly north east on a very strong jet which curves around the aforementioned ridge to pass close to northern Scotland 968mb 00 Thursday as explosive cyclogenesis takes place.Obviously this is a few days away but as it stands it could bring gales or severe gales to Scotland and also a fair wack of rain as the associated fronts slip south easy over Thursday. Need to see if this develops.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_5.thumb.png.0bb10e76941c2ac6a0761b0e92f9552e.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_6.thumb.png.0099aac54b2d6a560b5a706df7311bc7.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_7.thumb.png.3d132579b325aed47505da574ebdd1d1.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Good Weekend Folks! Looks like a rollercoaster ride especially from ecm ,gfs less so , but with a strong jet stream making its home across the nation it really looks like a traditional mix of rain wind cold ,even frost as weak ridges develop and milder days too, but the next few days ahead look interesting , with extropical activity moving towards us...... Just watch the skies in the next day or two and some of us will see something interesting:hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

I've recently read a theory that, in the last 30 years, global warming has bloated the Azores High and other sub-tropical high pressure systems (the Hadley Cell) way beyond it's usual, historic autumn and winter latitudes. Looking at the models the last week I'd say that it's ready to form in it's autumn/winter/interesting-weather killing position once again. Even in poor summers the SE benefits from the over-inflation of the Azores high and its ridging into France and it is now pretty rare to get truly awful summers in the SE quarter of the UK these days. This is something I'm going to be looking out for this winter. The funny thing is, if the high becomes ridiculously bloated it could end up in and around Greenland, accidentally plunging us into the freezer!

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

A couple of off topic posts deleted. There are relevant threads for discussing climate change, although if your sole intention is to pay no attention to science then please stay away from those areas :)

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 hours ago, LRD said:

I've recently read a theory that, in the last 30 years, global warming has bloated the Azores High and other sub-tropical high pressure systems (the Hadley Cell) way beyond it's usual, historic autumn and winter latitudes. Looking at the models the last week I'd say that it's ready to form in it's autumn/winter/interesting-weather killing position once again. Even in poor summers the SE benefits from the over-inflation of the Azores high and its ridging into France and it is now pretty rare to get truly awful summers in the SE quarter of the UK these days. This is something I'm going to be looking out for this winter. The funny thing is, if the high becomes ridiculously bloated it could end up in and around Greenland, accidentally plunging us into the freezer!

Actually, you are not far off with assessment.

I believe that there has been research done on this very topic and I think the main consensus was that the high pressure belt is expanding northwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This weekend can best be described as Autumnal. Currently the main depression is south of Iceland with the UK in a south westerly airstream. Cloudy with showers in Wales and the south west spreading east through the day. North west England, N. Ireland and Scotland may well see the best of the sunny intervals.Late in the day the main low has drifted north and the next low and frontal systems, containing the absorbed Lee,  are rapidly approaching from the west.

By 12 Sunday the the new low is west of Ireland 977mb and the fronts have brought a fair amount of rain and quite strong wins to most but particularly  N. Ireland and Scotland. Over the next 24 hours the low tracks north east to be north of Scotland thus the surface wind veers north west over N. Ireland, England and Wales with many blustery showers but with the continuation of more organized rain and strong winds over Scotland.

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At the same time ex tropical storm Maria is west of Cornwall busy being absorbed into the frontal system which will affect the SW/S as it swings SE during Monday.courtesy of the Azores high pressure building to the west; This duly moves east tending to squashes as the gfs nods in the direction that the ecm took last evening when it produced some ex[plosive cyclonenesis. Namely an elongated upper trough to the west of the HP which spawns a number of lows, one of which tracks north east over the next 24 hours running close to Scotland bringing some rain and wind but without any explosive deepening. Needs to be kept an eye on though.

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The battle between the upstream energy and the Azores continues with the next low arriving on the scene over Scotland bringing more rain and potentially strong winds on Friday. Despite a generally unsettled picture it is very much a N/S split as seen by the  rainfall figures with many places being relatively dry but with potentially one or two vigorous depressions around it may be wise to keep an open mind for next week

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Not a complete surprise but the ecm has dropped (for now) the explosive cyclogenesis idea, although id does bring a vigorous system into N.Ireland and Scotland on Wednesday which then tracks south east overnight bringing with it a fair bit of rain, particularly to the north and Scotland.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

Certainly looking more and more benign with time, if we're to take this mornings output at face value. The general rise in pressure anchored to the southwest going into week 2 doesn't look transient in nature by any means. For now at least!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

A quick look at the main 3 this morning for Thursday and it's ECM which is the odd one out by pushing the high back south

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
On 29/09/2017 at 07:22, cyclonic happiness said:

I know it's right at the end of FI and has practically zero chance of happening but, looks like quite a potent arctic blast lining up in the GFS.

Roll on winter! :):cold:

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Hey up!!!,the gfs is at it again:D:cold::bomb:

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

A quick look at the main 3 this morning for Thursday and it's ECM which is the odd one out by pushing the high back south

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While it's fair to say the Ecm does push the high back south but it's not for long as the high exerts its influence again very much in the days that follow

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Looking at this morning's GEFS and EPS mean anomalies and last night's NOAA there is little indication of any sign of anything apart from a continuation of changeable weather in the next 14 days. This doesn't of course preclude periods when the Azores HP may be briefly more influential with the surface high cell most likely to be parked to the south west

So the general pattern in our neck of the woods is an  upper low over N. Canada with associated trough Scandinavia giving a zonal westerly flow across the Atlantic with Azores struggling to push north. How successful it will be will be determined by the det. runs but the percentage play is the remain unsettled with a north/south bias and temps around average.

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And as previously stated no indication of any variation in the ext period.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

Very strange GFS evolution right at the back of FI (so you know it won't happen, but it's interesting non the less)

This chunk of the polar vortex drops a loab down from Greenland.....first pic.

 

 

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Then it produces a very nasty little storm just off the south west of Ireland?weird.png

Edited by cyclonic happiness
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Blizzard alert!!

The gfs develops a low in the circulation of the Iceland low in the vicinity of the front on Wednesday and intensifies it and whips it east into southern Norway bringing copious amounts of snow to that area

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Relax Sidney

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