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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Interesting that gfs is still keen give the cut off upper low in south east Europe a more influential role and it develops a broad low pressure area to the S/SE with conduit to the Atlantic trough which to say the least would be quite an interesting development but one we could do without.

gfs_z500a_natl_14.thumb.png.c109014b32389250cfdfb6941d001af0.pnggfs_z500a_natl_30.thumb.png.5a5708eae378a290e0fdecc8063f338f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The low in SE Europe is also playing a role with the ecm as it impacts the high pressure to the east and facilitates the Atlantic trough in it's ducking and diving east and thus fronts ingress the UK by midweek

ecm_z500_anom_natl_11.thumb.png.68e28a52e3db4d4d8886bdf3c79aa7b1.pngecm_t850_anom_natl_11.thumb.png.c425aff1d3088e07b9ce04692229ebf2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening All! Its quite clear the ex hurricane and tropical storm Josa  is causing serious problems with the outlook from gfs and ecm  at the ten day range although the general consencus is for a big pressure rise to the northeast of the uk ,but pending on the jet stream will this high be close enough to influence our weather? Perhaps for a while ., ecm makes more of ex Josa than gfs. but both models show a quick return from the Atlantic, whatever happens nice to see proper Autumn weather rather than the boring lifeless Autumns of the last few years :yahoo:Looking forward to Hurricane Maria and seeing what she will do to the uk in the days ahead......Interesting Times:yahoo:

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Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Quite an interesting outlook, strong pressure rise forecast to our NE, but we also have a quite erratic uncertain atlantic with ex-tropical storms in the mix. I suspect we will see quite a sharp elongated trough set up shop to our west, its where the energy decides to go which remains questionable. Might we see some sort of shear effect, with energy splintering both SE and NE.. leaving the UK under a wet mess, with heights to the NE too far away to prevent atlantic frontal attacks, but significant enough to prevent any zonal onslaught.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Not complete agreement with the anomalies tonight but the GEFs and EPS are both indicating the eastward movement of the Atlantic trough perhaps being a little earlier than previously indicated and thus perhaps a return to more unsettled weather be the middle of next week, Not a total surprise if this is the case.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.a3031e9c0d110f3c1501e6947c4cee9f.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.e864e70d3fb7cf255c8aa4aeaac866e2.pnggefs_z500a_nh_41.thumb.png.0265ab018aba0bd66f9c79fd4a2067cd.png

610day_03.thumb.gif.670c63d506a2d419c5973999705d8344.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Once early morning fog clears today should be a fine day for all  Later with the low tracking north just to the west fronts will edge in bringing some light rain to the NW overnight and more generally through the day tomorrow as they slowly tracks east. Not a huge amount of rain, the exception being parts of N.Ireland, western and northern Scotland.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.2ea52dff624464c7aa47bcb7844f617d.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.cc0a3340f04854ab91a747429257ca60.gifgfs_tprecip_uk2_13.thumb.png.4441c49e5d7970c0e0813f6c6041aaae.png

The fronts eventually clear to the east and now the battle between the high pressure to the north east and the energy/trough in the Atlantic begins in earnest with the UK situated on the western flank of the high and thus in the battle zone. Thus by 12 Saturday there is a deep area of low pressure SW of Iceland with the associated front orientated N/S across western Ireland. This traverses the UK over the weekend but slowly disintegrates under pressure from the ridging HP so merely sporadic rain for England. At the same time the cut off upper low in SE Europe is spreading it's wings north west displacing the high pressure north so that by 00 Tuesday a quite complicated analysis of fronts knocking on the door to the west, low pressure to the south and the high cell to the north east is the order of the day.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_25.thumb.png.0ce2d77692bcc19d7d6e6d6f6ab4c36d.pnggfs_z500a_natl_25.thumb.png.ef5e12f77e5400748a6be3ddf3357930.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_29.thumb.png.d07b3b17860eb34b12e6a862fd545125.png

The high actually hangs on in there through midweek as the trough attempts to establish a foothold courtesy of the low pressure to the south but this would appear to mark the slow transition to a more influential Atlantic and more unsettled weather. The detail of all of this is a long way from a done deal.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_37.thumb.png.893a029a023f98f40997f9d8bc1aa43b.pnggfs_uv500_natl_37.thumb.png.6314065e92ebe626cd52d045f63b2e17.png

So in a nutshell over the next nine days or so not a huge amount of rain, with N.Ireland and Scotland being the exception with next weekend being the main culprit, with high pressure generally in charge and temps maybe trending slightly above average.

gfs_tprecip_uk2_37.thumb.png.792367f6ba9b7d476daa993e5927dd7d.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

A couple of deep lows on this mornings ECM the 1st later this week tracks towards Iceland with the far west of Scotland and Ireland likely to be breezy with rain at times

ECMOPEU00_96_1.thumb.png.7da6c1b74ce1846a66d3b3f3a2167c6a.pngECMOPEU00_120_1.thumb.png.a77184c3777b5d693d37063173974b3b.png

The next deep low whips up mid next week bringing a spell of stronger winds and rain for all parts

ECMOPEU00_192_1.thumb.png.1a2073b3cce9e5cbb5371ea5f42e76b1.pngECMOPEU00_216_1.thumb.png.fe04401782a1a50967334c317b69c2a8.pngECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.40263aa9a9196e63192be4378b4b8560.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

this Thursday though SS, is a complete write off, not sure sods law, or scientific reason these washout systems arrive at my location in the day, 8am to 5pm, washout, but dry Wed and Thurs night

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM much more unsettled this morning - I'm guessing the fact that Hurricane Maria has unexpectedly intensified into a category 5 storm (all expert opinion yesterday said max cat 3 or maybe touching cat 4) will throw further chaos into the forecasts as it curves north into the Atlantic. Take any forecast with a large dose of salt for the next fortnight.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The slow transition from high pressure influence continues next week with the upper pattern edging east and the Atlantic trough becoming the influential factor helped by a very a strong jet. But the detail of this remains a long way from being resolved.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_51.thumb.png.207a9d40de0cec41a907a72b0218bfb9.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_35.thumb.png.830a8be594609e858cf460668383487f.pnggfs_uv250_natl_35.thumb.png.71999986f533c275bfbbbd7cbe87a1db.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm this evening has the wave on the front impacting Scotland tomorrow evening bringing some very wet weather overnight before it clears well to the north by 12z Thursday leaving the front to track east during the day over England and Wales.

Another little disturbance tracks NE on Friday bringing a little rain as it loses it's identity against the high pressure block to the east. Meanwhile a deep Atlantic low is tracking NE and then north to be in the Iceland area by 00 Sunday with the associated fronts over the Irish Sea attempting to progress east  but also dissipating against the high pressure so just some sporadic showery activity. The high just about hangs in there with light southerlies until late Wednesday when the Atlantic makes a more serious attempt to dominate as fronts progress further as the HP block slips slowly east.

ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.d4cb89f7168dd4794f2bc45cd00d87cf.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A better Ecm 12z run compared to the 00z where the atlantic eventually bulldozed through..there is more of a battle with the anticyclonic block to the NE putting up a good fight against the atlantic!:)

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240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Big Scandi High develops for the last few days of September. Just had a look through the archives. Scandi Highs developed during the last few days of September of the following years - 1946, 1962, 1981 & 2010. Just saying ;)

Don't be such a tease :D

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

It would appear from last night's anomalies and supporting evidence that the main question still to be answered is the timing and decisiveness of the progression of the trough(s) from the Atlantic as the block to the east moves slowly in that direction around midweek time. Perhaps today will firm up on this.

Anyway today will be dry and fairly pleasant in most of England and Wales but rain is quite quickly into N. Ireland and Scotland as a small wave develops on the front  Thus quite a wet day in these parts and light rain will also ingress to west Wales and western England later as the front tracks slowly east which is also essentially the story for tomorrow across the rest of England and Wales with only the south east remaining dry.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.7e40b1d6f9d4b43d688b25d494684d85.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.28d38cd3c8884d4533adfa02e224941b.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.f321559e365f0bd3cab9cdd07e01378e.gif

accumprecip_d02_49.thumb.png.cee4a796b93411c3ef71d4e1bdbc6d8f.png

The front eventually clears away to the east but Friday sees the next shallow system wing in from the SW bringing more rain to all but the south east. This quickly clears and is really the signal for the battle lines to be drawn between between the HP block to the east and the energy driven trough to the west. Thus by 12z Saturday we have a deep depression just SWS of Iceland ( the pressure distribution forcing it to track north)with the associated fronts lying across western Ireland. Over the weekend these dissipate as the slowly track east against the high pressure.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.24ea5adbd141fdd2584b5454b070ad21.pnggfs_uv500_natl_15.thumb.png.dcae55661e80216b2110ba006a078af5.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_21.thumb.png.0ce81b1c73b6f0d0a1533fa84c56f11b.png

The beginning of the week sees a rerun of this with another Atlantic low merging with the one previously mentioned to be centered around southern Greenland and once more the associated fronts, that have become somewhat divorced from the main circulation, lying across western Ireland by 12 Tuesday. They again make little progress east against the block and most of the precipitation is confined to N. Ireland and Scotland with west Wales and England also just about in the frame.  But with the energy piling up in the west and the high cell moving slowly east this may signal the collapse of the block and the capitulation to the Atlantic. But it's all very messy and a long way from being definitive.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_27.thumb.png.621c653e71673b93d8788489d16f0ccc.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_35.thumb.png.45bc589355f19d1a377ae505f9371d40.pnggfs_uv250_natl_35.thumb.png.af7a1538b03d404c83722fbcafa5d49f.png

So all in all the next week pretty dry and with temps quite reasonable temps a little above average in England and Wales but as ever N. Ireland and Scotland is in the firing line of systems coming up against the block copping most of the rain.

gfs_tprecip_uk2_36.thumb.png.946bc2a82cd9bab01f4cef384deee5fb.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Very much an west/east split developing over the next week. In my neck of the woods it looks great - dry, settled, not windy, and not cold. Out west however, it could be a bit dreich. Full on breakdown seems quite a way off at the moment, so best keep that on the back burner for the time being.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Although varying in detail the ecm is in the same ball park as the gfs and actually ends the run with the main question still unresolved with a deep low south of Iceland and the associated fronts down the Irish Sea. Thus the rain once more concentrated over Scotland with most of England and Wales in a warmish southerly drift. So the detail still unresolved for next week.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.thumb.png.68c6879bc12d3cca73e4f1eeaf5cb0c8.pngecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.1e0420d3c6ecd36c5a6b83830d2f40c0.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

WOW,if only it was winter:bomb:,a trend:whistling:

gfsnh-0-384.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
32 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

WOW,if only it was winter:bomb:,a trend:whistling:

gfsnh-0-384.png?6

There are mentions on the Strat thread of below average zonal winds in the Start as we move into October, this kind of chart would reflect that outcome.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

A warmer feeling day today as at last we now have winds from a more southerly part of the Atlantic.

fax0s.gif?2

Modelling now developing a quite persistent Blocking high over the Scandinavian area for the next week or 10 days so we may well see day to day variations on an east/west battle between the stalling Atlantic and the orientation of the high with fronts trying to move into the UK against the block.We can see this situation arising over the next 48hrs as frontal systems struggle across the country.

fax36s.gif?1

A look at the general 500hPa forecast for days 5 and 10 from the ECM mean charts.

   EDH1-120.GIF?20-12EDH1-240.GIF?20-12

shows the expected outlook with the pattern taking us into October.It would certainly raise interest in Winter as others have said but at this time of year it will bring some late warmth into some areas,further south especially, with temperatures quite possibly into the 20'sC.

Much depends really on the influence of the Atlantic with western and north western areas at times seeing less settled and cooler weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Just a little something for any new comers to chart viewing and to the term blocking high.

The NW xtra jet stream charts show how the block sees the Atlantic jet stream gradually slow and weaken near the UK and then is steered well north around the Scandinavian high.

Compare today and then over the coming few days.

j1.thumb.png.f5558a0f1d3eacba63e156bc724f4b41.pngj2.thumb.png.ef79db7cba7dcf575771be1369602e13.pngj3.thumb.png.1ddbbc9d197117b103b0b48eae4ae8ab.pngj4.thumb.png.58986cd4fbadb2d0a02f521178c33d70.png

A bit like a river or steam hitting a big rock with the flow diverted.This set up would be of great interest for cold lovers later on in the year as this sort of pattern can block out the mild Atlantic influence and instead bring us cold easterly winds around the south of the high,hence the reference made earlier why this would be an interesting outlook in Winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The ECM weeklies show temperatures starting to recover from next week nothing majorly above average on the way probably hovering around or a bit above normal

Monthly_Anomalies_T2m_20170918_w2.png

Monthly_Anomalies_T2m_20170918_w3.png

Monthly_Anomalies_T2m_20170918_w4.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The weekend is looking fairly reasonable with high pressure to the east and a deep low tracking towards Iceland with only the far west at risk of some rain and winds

UKMOPEU12_72_1.thumb.png.bb407be9f6952de75a12f34c420be0bf.pngUKMOPEU12_96_1.thumb.png.88c124bbe6cda0145ef2e5ec97a132e7.png

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