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Here is a new thread as we start the Autumn quarter.

Today's model runs continue to indicate a pretty mobile Atlantic pattern through the coming week by the looks of things.

A glance at the latest fax for Monday shows plenty of frontal activity heading in from the west ending our short little fine spell for today and tomorrow.

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and below we have ECM mean chart for the end of next week, continuing to show the westerly theme

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Low pressure moving across to the north and the Azores high only able to ridge briefly between the rain bands the new month looks to start on a rather unsettled note with, as often the case in this setup,the best of any brighter spells further south and east.

This seems to have been the story of much of our Summer and this pattern seems set to continue for now. 

 

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Evening All , Despite an unsettled outlook , there will be some fine spells of weather in between the rain bands , models struggling with any detail , but looks as though there will be some flirty pressure rises :yahoo:

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Thanks Phil for the new thread:)

i just hope that the GEM isn't right:shok:

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looking at most of the main models,low pressure does seem to show a NW-SE tragectory with the influence of high pressure over scandi forcing them that way,well it is the first day of autumn.

 

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GFS has probably one final blast of heat as we move through week 2 of the month

GFSOPUK00_276_2.thumb.png.ee8dff50dbbad13b3f2d0c8a4ab02dfc.pngGFSOPUK00_276_17.thumb.png.6a74c26c67eee2b6a2677bbe8ef3e8a7.png

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And a heart shaped cold green blob for parts of scotland with 10/11c, talk about rubbing salt in the wounds of the last 3 months..roll on winter!:D

Edited by Frosty.
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No real change to yesterday's outlook with the expected onset of Atlantic weather for the coming week.

A look at the UKMO day 4 chart sums shows the establishment of the westerly flow with the Greenland/ Icelandic trough becoming more dominant with time and any Azores ridging heading east into the continent.

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Last night's Ht anomalies for days 6-10 reflecting this expected setup.

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so a fairly early spell of Autumnal weather to come it seems with the north seeing the worst of any wind and rain as low pressure is expected to head across to the north later in the week. 

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13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS still going for summer to return at the start of week 2

GFSOPUK06_252_17.thumb.png.41e48209c947ae69108203afd39b7b50.pngGFSOPUK06_276_17.thumb.png.542e5d86d11323d45ef48e47d4301c78.png

Week 2 shows what could happen when we see more wavering of the jet flow.

Compare the differences in the way the 2 main models handle this for the Uk,of course this is around 10 days away so just for illustration really

gfs-0-234.png?6ECM1-240.GIF?02-12

As you show SS a brief taste f Summer as warm air from S.Europe wafts northwards ahead of a slow moving cut-off low out west.However look at the way ECM models this with a much more Autumnal cooler cyclonic period.

Either scenario is possible of course if this splitting of the jet occurs.:)

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Yes phil the anomaly charts, a bit variable recently as they always are when tropical storms/hurricanes get into the Atlantic mix, but an unsettled outlook is what seems the most likely overall pattern for 6-14 days at least. Obviously a break now and then, 48 hours perhaps, and probably the usual Nw-SE differences.

NOAA 8-14 below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

ECMWF-GFS

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

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I really won't mind the unsettled spell later next week  as the Gfs 12z shows if it's followed by what happens in low res which is a complete transformation into a spell of very summery weather..a price definitely worth paying!:D

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Edited by Frosty.
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Need to keep an eye on next Saturday, defiantly looking Autumnal at the moment.

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You can see it's not just the Gfs 12z operational which goes all summery as we head towards and during the mid month period. The GEFS 12z mean also indicates there is plenty of support for a gradual change from unsettled to settled with increasing height's to the east extending west across the uk with help from the azores bringing a lovely spell of anticyclonic weather for all areas..fingers crossed.:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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A change to warmth (if it arrives) looks like it will be proceeded by a spell of autumnal weather

ECM 00z

ECMOPEU00_192_2.thumb.png.9204eae18f9dec67b4f90f2bb8d98219.png

12z

ECMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.1322ef36f9b0cf029fcc26f2504926db.png

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At D7 we have ECM & GFS going westerly with UKMO going north westerly

ecm2.2017090912_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.2b9c26c8f9bac1b4544b223d0e1d10d0.pnggfs2.2017090912_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.22d90404ec13fcda37e8104f0baf3571.pngukm2.2017090912_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.9bdac65de20b60dc42e33041ba4f77b8.png

 

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The ECM London ens shows the Op is overcooking the low somewhat around next Sunday

 

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean isn't as extreme as the operational regarding the unsettled spell from later next week, it looks like the north bears the brunt from the low pressure / unsettled weather whereas southern areas are not too badly affected, nothing like as bad as the op showed for the south. I really hope once we get through next week that week 2 will bring a marked improvement as the Gfs 12z op / Gefs 12z mean show in the run up to and including the mid september period.:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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The ecm much on the same page as the gfs but has a different interpretation next weekend.

At T156 it has the new disturbance running further south and is just west of Cornwall and within the circulation of the main low which is just north of Scotland. It then tracks rapidly east whilst forming an intense little depression that by 06z on Sunday is over N. Germany. This will bring some very wet, and quite windy, weather to the southern half of the UK and also France and Germany. Obviously the detail for next weekend is still to be resolved

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GEM remains consistent in the first storm of the season next Sunday a number of runs now have had a big low developing over the UK

00z

GEMOPEU00_180_1.thumb.png.89217b8de3a57d76291048cb49eb4fc1.png

Yesterday 12z

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ECM London ens shows the Op has pressure about 10mb higher than last nights run with the mean marginally lower

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Last night's ens

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Just a continuation of the garbage we've had to endure for most of July and august then (barring a few recent days). Jet is on a mission this year it seems, constantly firing west to east at a rate of knots.

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Actually it's not all bad news in this Atlantic pattern with something of a respite between the weather systems around mid-week.

Fax for Wednesday for example

fax84s.gif

not great but drier with some brighter weather around,maybe a few showers further north.This window probably extending into Thursday before it all goes downhill as the next low moves in.

 

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Considering how dry the first half of the yr was ,im not surprised that the second half will overall be likely much less settled

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There are signs on this morning's EPS means of the Iceland/UK trough weakening and drifting east whilst at the same time the Azores HP pushes north just west of the UK and also drifting east. This would portend a much more settled scenario with the temps nudging above average.

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16 minutes ago, knocker said:

There are signs on this morning's EPS means of the Iceland/UK trough weakening and drifting east whilst at the same time the Azores HP pushes north just west of the UK and also drifting east. This would portend a much more settled scenario with the temps nudging above average.

around Mid-September?

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