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Incredible drama, tragedy and everything else between with this historical super-storm (and the supporting acts) all week. You really couldn't make it up. To culminate in this slow, terrifying, theatrical turn towards Florida, and still complete uncertainty about what will follow in many ways is just about as astonishing as it gets. This storm is truly like some other worldly thing at this stage. If it proceeds to roll up along the Florida west coast I think we will have witnessed something that will go down as the most fantastical storm of all recorded time.

 

In my humble opinion it looks like it's going to go at least a bit more west in the next 12 hours. After that, if it stays at this utterly suspenseful pace, it's anybody's guess as other factors likely to come more into play. It is only short of having a giant orchestra play the apocalypse movie climax score at this stage.

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Well, when I went to bed Irma was stalled against the Cuban coast, looks like it has finally found the weakness in the subtropical ridge but even now with the turn it's still trying to bounce slightly further west.

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Landfall? Hmmmm, I joked early last week about a terrible 'Natural' disaster' taking the 9/11 crown...... now I think I should have kept quiet!

The drop in forward speed is the worst possible thing we could see allowing extra time over those 90f 'bath tub' waters. The latest EWRC has finished so now we expect intensification of the storm. Key west already getting Hurricane force gusts and they are 70 miles away from the storm!!!

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23 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

CNN predicting it weakens to Cat 3 prior to mainland hit.

Is there windshear preventing further intensification as its over very warm waters?

But where will landfall be? If it hugs the coast but doesn't quite hit, then I guess there will be slight weakening, but in the process it would tear up a far longer area of coast.

Or the very worst could stay offshore? Surely not impossible?

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NHC are bringing hourly updates from here on in so we won't need 'forecasts' as we will be in 'nowcast' territory!

Maybe , as we saw along Cuba's coast, having half the storm over land cuts it off from its fuel so lowers strength but then we will have 'brown ocean' effect over the soggier bits of Florida ( everglades etc?).

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7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

But where will landfall be? If it hugs the coast but doesn't quite hit, then I guess there will be slight weakening, but in the process it would tear up a far longer area of coast.

Or the very worst could stay offshore? Surely not impossible?

Last report was it would make land somewhere below Talehasse. 

 

Edit but frankly who knows. It's moved a fairly long way west already. 

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4 minutes ago, sherrie said:

Someone on my Facebook posted that Jose has done an about turn and now heading straight for the Florida straights, is this true?

Not the most reliable source of info is Facebook Sherrie , strictly this should be in another thread but José is forecast wander about for a few days out there.

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