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4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Just watching the Weather Channel and they're now reporting that Irma is back to a Cat 4 with maximum sustained winds of 130mph.  

They've taken the 111kts and then bumped it up as it's close to the states. Cat 4 is 113kts. A sensible decision as this will get carried on news channels and get people's notice a bit quicker. 

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7 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

They've taken the 111kts and then bumped it up as it's close to the states. Cat 4 is 113kts. A sensible decision as this will get carried on news channels and get people's notice a bit quicker. 

That's possible and I suppose with the pressure dropping as it is, they can be pretty confident that the wind strength is going to increase accordingly.  

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Just trying to get up to speed from last night. So she still is hogging Cuba, has she started to track north yet? 

Ive seen a few tracks and comments and the view was she would track up West Florida now. Is that still the case? 

Isn't the Hamilton's exclusive properties located along that side? 

Checked all those beech webcams too and yep no signal. 

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23 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

Just trying to get up to speed from last night. So she still is hogging Cuba, has she started to track north yet? 

Ive seen a few tracks and comments and the view was she would track up West Florida now. Is that still the case? 

Isn't the Hamilton's exclusive properties located along that side? 

Checked all those beech webcams too and yep no signal. 

2:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 10     ie 7am uk time
Location: 23.7°N 81.3°W
Moving: NW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 931 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

Heading NW away from Cuba now, towards Key West and west coast of Florida. NHC now predict hugging the west coast all the way up Florida towards Tallahasse

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/034247.shtml?gm_track#contents

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Just now, Kiwi said:

2:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 10     ie 7am uk time
Location: 23.7°N 81.3°W
Moving: NW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 931 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

Heading NW away from Cuba now, towards Key West and west coast of Florida. NHC now predict hugging the west coast all the way up Florida towards Tallahasse

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/034247.shtml?gm_track#contents

Thank you Kiwi, excellent. 

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5 minutes ago, Barking_Mad said:

 

 

 

If the eye remains just offshore does this mean that Irma is likely to maintain her strength all the way up the coast?

Particularly bad news for the Tampa Bay area I'd have thought.

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Just on model performance

once again UKMO > all again.

Amazing isn't it!  Believe the latest ukmo guidance now has it further east than the gfs/ecm so it seems ukmo was best in the 4/6 day with ec honing in on the west coast of the panhandle route best in the sub T72 period 

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That westward shift is very bad news for places like Tampa where the storm surge is worst when the are just in the NE quadrant under SW winds forcing the water inland-

Generally that track will be worse case scenario for the west coast --

s

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Tracks from 4 days ago (6th), where only a small minority of ensemble members had Irma going up the west coast of Florida, or even staying out over the eastern Gulf.

11L_gefs_latest.thumb.png.efe0c65cc5f7d19490be3bc741943b74.png 11L_geps_latest.thumb.png.7695110d078efd6bc8bd4286760b6697.png 11L_tracks_latest.thumb.png.bd363f6e010ff57d26923bf94d6a080d.png

There were a couple of runs of the GDPS that had Irma going as far west as New Orleans a few days ago.

59b4e760d8104_ScreenShot2017-09-05at07_08_20.thumb.png.48770f7fff643953fd900404fdadd9c7.png 59b4e77529624_ScreenShot2017-09-05at07_09_04.thumb.png.0a6f487a7ffd6be6abd52c73cb66d900.png

and of course just a week ago Irma was forecast to be either a fish storm or make landfall somewhere in North Carolina according to the majority of NWP guidance back then...

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These are the only cams I could find still working, I was watching the Seaport cam at about 2am and large fish were being washed up against the property on the cam as the sea had breached the wall, so it must be pretty bad now.

 

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/miamiandthebeaches/?cam=miamibeach1

 

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/miamiandthebeaches/?cam=miamibeach3

http://www.windjammerresort.com/webcam.html

 

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