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It's has taken a while for power to be restored and proper wifi connectivity here in Antigua, but we're now back to normal.  Looking back at some posts on here and also the local 3 hourly Irma fo

Seems Global Warming was in effect in the early 20th Century as well. The 1900 Galveston Hurricane being one of the worst but also 3 Miami Strikes in years 1926, 1928 and 1935 Link to the worst a

It would appear that trumps resort on the smaller islands already impacted is devastated and now his beloved Mar a lago id in line for a pretty strong hit. It would be the irony of ironies if he

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New advisory out from the NHC:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 100257
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

...IRMA TAKING ITS TIME MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 81.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 81.0 West. Irma is moving
slowly northwestward away from the north coast of Cuba near 6 mph
(9 km/h).  A turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in
forward speed is expected through late Monday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Irma is expected to cross the Lower Florida
Keys Sunday morning and then move near or along the west coast of
Florida Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.  Irma should then
move inland over the Florida panhandle and southwestern Georgia
Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Irma is forecast to restrengthen a little
while it moves through the Straits of Florida and remain a powerful
hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and the west coast of
Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches).
 

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Forecast cone for Irma just published, seems she won't make landfall till later than previously thought - more time over the sea, more time to strengthen again?

213811_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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Irma looking very very strong this morninG

The eye is now crystal clear, not ragged at all - very good rotation & banding-

I would go with ~ 920 MB & moderate Cat 4 ATM

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Irma looking very very strong this morninG

The eye is now crystal clear, not ragged at all - very good rotation & banding-

I would go with ~ 920 MB & moderate Cat 4 ATM

She's getting their 926mb 123 flight winds and 111kts surface winds. Just 5 mins ago. 

A high end cat 3. 

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Cool

lets see how the next 8 hours go as we get the optimal time over water-

We would 3mb an hour to get close to 900 which isnt out of the question --

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Irmas eye is probably the best I've seen for potential intensification since prior Barbuda. 

Shes struggled with an erc a lot and because of that pressure has been 910-925 most of the time in the atlantic. 

Now though she looks to have a real large solid eye and intensification is probably true ri now. A drop of 5mb in 1.5hrs. 

Despite the preside of 926 she has lots of intensification points to achieve, clearing out the eye stronger eye wall, better cdo shape, better temp differential, colder cloud tops etc. 

Add on the fact that she beaekt seems to have moved since I sent to bed at 10pm. 

A cat 4 by next nhc update at 10am is certain.  A sub 900 cat 5 prior landfall is the question?

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