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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eric Webb was arguing on twitter that the size of the storm made a cat 5 restrengthening unlikely in his opinion 

he also commented that in his experience, storms that go cat 5 and then make landfall which weakens them will not regain cat 5 again 

Its already done it once so storm proving him wrong already.

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eric Webb was arguing on twitter that the size of the storm made a cat 5 restrengthening unlikely in his opinion 

he also commented that in his experience, storms that go cat 5 and then make landfall which weakens them will not regain cat 5 again 

This storm has not followed the script so far so it's a big shout from Mr Webb.

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Just now, draztik said:

Actually, it does; as the wind gusts would be significantly higher. 

It's the difference between a catastrophic storm and a devastating storm. A Cat 4 hurricane is nothing to celebrate.

A lot of people seem to be grasping at straws lately - even talking about the entire thing going off to Louisiana. 

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Just now, cheese said:

It's the difference between a catastrophic storm and a devastating storm. A Cat 4 hurricane is nothing to celebrate.

A lot of people seem to be grasping at straws lately - even talking about the entire thing going off to Louisiana. 

I'm sure LA would appreciate that, having just about got over Katrina (aren't some of those abandoned neighborhoods still there?

 

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A bit of good news at least is that the Royal Netherlands AF KC10 is landing somewhere in the N.Caribbean this hour. The RAF have also been mobilized today to provide relief and clean-up efforts.

Untitled.thumb.jpg.750a0b288c517db8a5a8b84a8d6d406b.jpg

 

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6 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I think we are all on a learning curve here as to just what 2017 hurricanes can do and that includes Mr Webb! all we can do is wait and see what the next 20 hrs or so brings?

I  think the learning curve should also consider the hiatus of the last 12 years....

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3 minutes ago, crimsone said:

I'm sure LA would appreciate that, having just about got over Katrina (aren't some of those abandoned neighborhoods still there?

 

New Orleans never fully recovered and I'm pretty sure their population is still below where it was in 2005 prior to Katrina.

Even if it didn't landfall in Florida it would still landfall somewhere. A landfall in Texas or Louisiana is no better - probably much worse.

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1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

I  think the learning curve should also consider the hiatus of the last 12 years....

I think the ramp up in the pacific including our first 'super Typhoons' answered that as we saw upper level imbalance between Atlantic and Pacific Basins leading to unfavourable upper atmosphere ( with record breaking shear over the Caribbean). The 'naturals' in the Pacific ended this back in 2014 and so we have been slowly moving toward this point since then with plenty of storms forming but only the strongest making strong cat storms? They were also all pretty 'fishy' but now we are back to 05' type conditions with another 15yrs of warming across the globe to now add into the mix.

I'd say look at the last time the basin saw a run of active years and then make those storms at least 1 Cat higher?

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Just now, ThundersnowDays said:

Irma hasn't really made any landfalls yet only small islands and scraping the coast of Cuba.

It did drop from cat 5 and then recover after the islands and could well do so after cuba too. I am  hopinv it dorsn't though. 

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3 minutes ago, suffolkboy_ said:

No, it wasn't. 

Hurricane Irma.png

I meant above Cuba and it looks pretty close to it on that picture. My original point was that islands like Anguilla and Barbuda didn't effect its strength only once it got a bit further on towards Hispaniola.

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