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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

and after watching it for a bit i realised that it's a loop:nonono:

I thought it kept on going in reverse.. how bizarre, lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, cheese said:

I thought it kept on going in reverse.. how bizarre, lol.

Yes,the wind kept on switching from left to ritght and the palm tree was facing/blowing left all the time:cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
7 minutes ago, A Winter's Tale said:

Irma is now a Category 5 Hurricane again with sustained winds of around 160mph. It looks close to making a landfall around the Cuban keys.

Just looking at the latest and the track seems to take a more WSW  move and is hitting Cuba as we speak.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Irma has officially made landfall in Cuba as a Category 5 hurricane. This is the first time sine 1924 that a Cat 5 has made landfall in Cuba.

On most recent radar imagery, looks like it might be moving more WNW again. We'll see.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Irma is certainly wobbling about on the islands and keys off Cuba mainland. 

The nw quad is pretty ragged. However don't be fooled the structure is still intact and once she  moves back over clear water the convection can return within a few hours. 

Even a few mins ago recon are still finding cat 5 surface winds to the east. Pressure is uncertain due to the machine on board not working as well as it should. 

Gfs is still going for a more mid Florida hit. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Importantly ec which Wants to take it more west over Florida. Puts Irma further into cuba, see below from the 12z run

This is NOT happening on its current track it is more north. 

Ec 00z might shift Bit east when it comes out. 

Miami is NOT out of this yet and i think she will track to the east a bit of the nhc and ec tracks so far. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

00z ec has landfall over tampa. 

However it initialises Irma approx 50 miles too Far East, and to far south. Also a touch too fast. 

This puts it quite a bit further east before the pull and turn northwards   

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Latest NHC further west again and Miami may not see hurricane force winds at all. Landfall would appear headed for Tampa now. But surely the extended interaction with Cuba will moderate the winds a bit.

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Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but Rain!
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
Just now, Man With Beard said:

Latest NHC further west again and Miami may not see hurricane force winds at all. Landfall would appear headed for Tampa now. But surely the extended interaction with Cuba will moderate the winds a bit.

It is and should, but as the latest ECM shows the waters once it leaves Cuba are very warm and provide a rapid intesification opportunity for it, could end up being a cat 3 leaving Cuba yet a Cat 5 on land fall of the US. Really all depends on if it gets its toes into the Gulf as will be over warmer waters longer.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Ridge to the north will probably shift it further west still. Lets see.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Ryan Maue tweeted an hour ago:

HWRF 00z hurricane model +30 hours (early Sunday) has Hurricane #Irma rapidly returning to textbook Cat 5 hurricane in Straits of Florida. https://t.co/vGPkj14uTk

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
12 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I wonder how this impacts on Florida evacuations?

Thousands would have gone West now need to move East again. 

Was thinking this

i guess the main issue will be coastal flooding re the storm surge so the authorities will be making sure that vulnerable coastal areas are evacuated around the whole peninsula. I would make a comment about female unpredictability but then again ...................

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The ECM brings Jose very close to the east US coast towards the end of the run after meandering in roughly the same area all week.

There won't be a boring moment in the tropics for the foreseeable future.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Convection is starting to wrap around the west of the eye again protecting it. 

Re ec I can only say that ec in its latest run had Irma making landfall on main land Cuba 3-4 hrs ago and that still hasn't happened. She is still out in the islands. Personally I can only have faith in the ec when  it gets the beginning of the run right. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Convection is starting to wrap around the west of the eye again protecting it. 

Re ec I can only say that ec in its latest run had Irma making landfall on main land Cuba 3-4 hrs ago and that still hasn't happened. She is still out in the islands. Personally I can only have faith in the ec when  it gets the beginning of the run right. 

 

Initialisation is always going to be a big issue on something as unpredictable and important as this.  Whilst NHC would be desperate to have ec op guidance this morning they will have to wait another 11 hours for it!  one assumes that the short range higher res products will be heavily leaned on for info now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
14 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Convection is starting to wrap around the west of the eye again protecting it. 

Re ec I can only say that ec in its latest run had Irma making landfall on main land Cuba 3-4 hrs ago and that still hasn't happened. She is still out in the islands. Personally I can only have faith in the ec when  it gets the beginning of the run right. 

 

I'm sorry I'm not following that. This seems to agree with the ecm

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

According to this forecast from a few hours ago, they appear confident that the westward shift will not lead to strengthening. They expect landfall as category 4.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-hurricane-irma-friday-0908-story.html

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