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It's has taken a while for power to be restored and proper wifi connectivity here in Antigua, but we're now back to normal.  Looking back at some posts on here and also the local 3 hourly Irma fo

Seems Global Warming was in effect in the early 20th Century as well. The 1900 Galveston Hurricane being one of the worst but also 3 Miami Strikes in years 1926, 1928 and 1935 Link to the worst a

It would appear that trumps resort on the smaller islands already impacted is devastated and now his beloved Mar a lago id in line for a pretty strong hit. It would be the irony of ironies if he

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Cat 5 at landfall in the Florida Keys.. shocking. Cat 4 upon landfall in the mainland. Looks like Miami will miss the worst but not good news for western areas of Florida. Looks like Tampa could receive a direct strike.

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27 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

There's a twitter post that says that the water level off Miami Beach think it was has dropped... is that a possible phenomena relating to before the storm arrives? 

Can u post link of post?

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12 minutes ago, crimsone said:

I love that you can basically make out the hadley cell model in operation on that loop, right with the mid-latitude cell, even if the polar cell is somewhat obscured by static data. Nice little image.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animvis.html

for a closer view of current activity

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2 minutes ago, Martin/Baldie said:

There was three scenarios for Irma ..turns north before Florida,hits Florida or ends up the Gulf. I would be more inclined to think the Gulf option may play out,just an opinion.

 

Taking into account of the super computers (et al') analysis over the last two weeks i think it quite unlikely that Irma is going to hang left into the gulf of Mexico - but hey you called it first (-;

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1 minute ago, Pixel said:

Taking into account of the super computers (et al') analysis over the last two weeks i think it quite unlikely that Irma is going to hang left into the gulf of Mexico - but hey you called it first (-;

Well, I did say that that n'ward turn would cause people to disbelieve it. :p

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1 hour ago, Martin/Baldie said:

There was three scenarios for Irma ..turns north before Florida,hits Florida or ends up the Gulf. I would be more inclined to think the Gulf option may play out,just an opinion.

 

Not far off happening, it has moved so far west. Miami less in danger now, 100mph rather than 160/170mph likely (still pretty bad but should survive).

The area most at risk is the Naples area. 300,000 inhabitants, one of the richest districts in the world, lots of rich people with grand properties. Currently in line for a category 5 hit.

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Not far off happening, it has moved so far west. Miami less in danger now, 100mph rather than 160/170mph likely (still pretty bad but should survive).

The area most at risk is the Naples area. 300,000 inhabitants, one of the richest districts in the world, lots of rich people with grand properties. Currently in line for a category 5 hit.

If westward shift keeps happening then Louisiana a possible target time will tell

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To me certainly it looks like it’s going to make landfall on Cuba with the first proper land interaction not good for them but spares Florida destruction. I for once do not think it is going to be as bad as some are making while I understand the caution. I forsee it making landfall on the mainland as a category 2/3 a weak category 4 for the keys, storm surge perhaps the bigger concern. 

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12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

To me certainly it looks like it’s going to make landfall on Cuba with the first proper land interaction not good for them but spares Florida destruction. I for once do not think it is going to be as bad as some are making while I understand the caution. I forsee it making landfall on the mainland as a category 2/3 a weak category 4 for the keys, storm surge perhaps the bigger concern. 

I would love to see you right, but I think the very high SST's south of Florida along with no/low wind shear will pep it up.  I note that the NHC are now forecasting Irma to re-intensify back to a Cat 5 as it makes landfall over the Keys.  This storm is historic and I really don't see it significantly weakening until it's properly over Florida.

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31 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

I would love to see you right, but I think the very high SST's south of Florida along with no/low wind shear will pep it up.  I note that the NHC are now forecasting Irma to re-intensify back to a Cat 5 as it makes landfall over the Keys.  This storm is historic and I really don't see it significantly weakening until it's properly over Florida.

We’ll see :) 

a fascinating period for us weather geeks!

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1 hour ago, Ice Day said:

I would love to see you right, but I think the very high SST's south of Florida along with no/low wind shear will pep it up.  I note that the NHC are now forecasting Irma to re-intensify back to a Cat 5 as it makes landfall over the Keys.  This storm is historic and I really don't see it significantly weakening until it's properly over Florida.

Agreed.

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