Hurricane Irma

[karyo]

Was it yesterday's 12z ECM that also kept Irma out in the ocean?

[summer blizzard]

We sure she's only cat 2?

[karyo]

Consistent GFS, sending Irma crashing in the east coast and then slowly moving inland.

[AderynCoch]

5 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Lets just hope the gfs is doing its normal over the top stuff with this.

You're probably right. 878mb on the latest run, which would be an all-time record for the Atlantic. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

874hPa here, smashing the record.

[crimsone]

If I've learned anything from following hurricanes in North Atlantic over the years, it's to never say never... especially not with more than 3 days to go.

If it follows the south edge of the cone, it gets run ragged over the mountains of Cuba. North, and the Bahamas have an incredibly bad day, possibly followed by New York/Jersey. All the while assuming that the cone itself doesn't change too much.

 

Edited September 3, 2017 by crimsone
accidental premature submission

[Zephyr]

Irma now going in to warmer waters, MPI's went from 960 odd to 930s today so guessing she will be gathering some strength soon as Iceberg said earlier the drier / moisture issue on the southern flanks was choking her from building any strength over the course of the day but tomorrow will be different as every day is with forecasting/nowcasting 

 

 

 

[Iceberg]

Morning. 

Irma looks like she has had a good nights rest. The core has looked great at times but imho this morning is the first time she is starting to look healthy and fresh. Outflow is now good in most sectors. Inflow is still a little limited but a lot better than yesterday. Irma has grown by 50% in the last 12 hrs and I think will spend today growing into a good sized hurricane. 

Ssts are near to 29c allowing better internal growth. The dry air has been pushed away and lifted out so that it shouldnt be a problem. Although it will still limit the south imho for another few hours. 

Gfs takes a cat 5 into the carolinas and this is by far the most likely option. For the first 5 days it's moved considerably to the ec taking Irma closer to the islands. 

Recon will be in tonight to give us a true picture. 

I think at some point today Irma might develop a consistent eye. 

Anyway ec coming out so let's see what that does. 

Edited September 3, 2017 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

Ec rolling out and continues the general trend (apart from ec 12z) of digging the system sw. Gfs 00z was pronounced with this. 

Its an unfortunate trend for the islands , Irma has multiple impacts on this run some more some less. But it looks significant for the Bahamas. 

Little hope for a tough pick up on this so a mid us East coast hit seems likely. 

[Iceberg]

Ts winds into Florida. No trough and a weak ridge to the north. 

[Iceberg]

Bad run for Nassau straight through the eye of a cat 5. Notice it will almost impact Miami a little  

Irma looks to be 920mb so a very likely cat 5 just about to hit the Carolinas carbon copy of the gfs and good cross model agreement. 

 

[stodge]

For completeness, here's NAVGEM:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017090300&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=0

GEM 00Z has IRMA slamming into Florida and moving north through the middle of the state. Weaker than the GFS or ECM though with central MSLP at 949 MB compared with the sub-900 MB values seen elsewhere.

[summer blizzard]

One of the interesting things some may not have picked up on is that unlike most other runs which had Irma weakening from peak before landfall, both of the runs today have it hit at full strength. 

Catastrophic damage if so. 

[summer blizzard]

Since our own UKMO statistically poos on the GFS for tropical forecasting i'm curious as to how far south it is at day compared to the Euro and GFS.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/storm-tracker/#?tab=map&stormId=11L&stormName=IRMA

[Iceberg]

Nhc have updated now 100kts and strengthening which I can totally see. 

Track is shifting westwards. 

They also make Irma 120kts pretty quickly. 

[Iceberg]

Good consistance from the gfs 06 goes for the same again. 

[crimsone]

1 hour ago, Iceberg said:

Good consistance from the gfs 06 goes for the same again. 

Interesting little tropical depression/storm forming down at the Antilles in that model too.

[crimsone]

This would be bad. Very bad.

[knocker]

 

[crimsone]

30 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

Worth noting that he also says that Florida is still at risk though. They should probably make some basic preparations/arrangements just in case, and keep a close eye on the forecast at this point.

[Zephyr]

Looks like she is losing intensity in the last couple of satellite frames 

 

[crimsone]

3 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

Looks like she is losing intensity in the last couple of satellite frames 

It looks almost as though she tried to form a twin and ate her own tail in doing so.

[alexisj9]

5 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

Looks like she is losing intensity in the last couple of satellite frames 

 

That looks strange, will be interesting to see what she does now. Is there still dry air to her south.

[Cleeve Hill]

Here in Antigua supermarkets were so busy yesterday and extra water bottles batteries etc on sale. Petrol stations also very busy (not just fuel but people filling containers of diesel for generators). The first thing to go here will be electricity so quite a lot of locals will have generators. 

Government has the utility company working 24 hours lopping trees over power lines (something they should do all year round , not 72 hours before a storm) , but that's Antigua for you.

the storm is looking more likely to effect us now than a couple of days ago and the longer it takes the south of west direction the greater the risk for the northern leeward islands, Antigua, st Kitts in the main. We all want the storm to start the recurve sooner rather than later.

if it does hit I fear for the local people, many of whom live in wooden homes that are not secured to the land, often just built on concrete blocks. Many properties are uninsured.  There is a lot of poverty here and the economy could not withstand this. The island is dependent upon tourism with the main season running Nov - April so there is little money around at present and any significant damage now would impact on the 17/18 season. 

Anyway fingers crossed it turns north soon. Hurricane shutters going up today ! 

[Cleeve Hill]

It's now a CAT 3 and once it's over warmer waters this is forecast to become a larger 4 or 5 storm. It's been over SST of 27c the last 2 days. 28c is the point of refuelling.