Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Recommended Posts

It would appear that trumps resort on the smaller islands already impacted is devastated and now his beloved Mar a lago id in line for a pretty strong hit.

It would be the irony of ironies if he was bankrupted by storms showing augmentation from the recent changes to our global climate ( esp. moisture content of the air above the warm oceans?).

This (Irma) was another 'fast developer' ( along with Harvey) and we may see Jose display the same trend ( Katia did! she was supposed to already be ashore and not make it beyond TS?).

After seeing Patricia, last year?, grow so fast in the Pacific basin prior to coming in as a Cat 5 we might have raised an eyebrow but now it seems likely that we are seeing an alteration to the way storms form and intensify? With some sat. calibrations used to gauge strength ( Dvorak) running low compared to the dropsonde data we do look to have some questions to answer?

We are now half way through this season and have already had a seasons worth of Depressions/storms/TS's/Hurricanes so how will the rest of the season pan out?

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

It's has taken a while for power to be restored and proper wifi connectivity here in Antigua, but we're now back to normal.  Looking back at some posts on here and also the local 3 hourly Irma fo

Seems Global Warming was in effect in the early 20th Century as well. The 1900 Galveston Hurricane being one of the worst but also 3 Miami Strikes in years 1926, 1928 and 1935 Link to the worst a

It would appear that trumps resort on the smaller islands already impacted is devastated and now his beloved Mar a lago id in line for a pretty strong hit. It would be the irony of ironies if he

Posted Images

1 minute ago, Gray-Wolf said:

It would appear that trumps resort on the smaller islands already impacted is devastated and now his beloved Mar a lago id in line for a pretty strong hit.

It would be the irony of ironies if he was bankrupted by storms showing augmentation from the recent changes to our global climate ( esp. moisture content of the air above the warm oceans?).

This (Irma) was another 'fast developer' ( along with Harvey) and we may see Jose display the same trend ( Katia did! she was supposed to already be ashore and not make it beyond TS?).

After seeing Patricia, last year?, grow so fast in the Pacific basin prior to coming in as a Cat 5 we might have raised an eyebrow but now it seems likely that we are seeing an alteration to the way storms form and intensify? With some sat. calibrations used to gauge strength ( Dvorak) running low compared to the dropsonde data we do look to have some questions to answer?

We are now half way through this season and have already had a seasons worth of Depressions/storms/TS's/Hurricanes so how will the rest of the season pan out?

Let's hope that this hurricane season acts as a wake up call for Trump and other people of power to take action. Maybe the US will stay in the Paris agreement after all.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Seems Global Warming was in effect in the early 20th Century as well. The 1900 Galveston Hurricane being one of the worst but also 3 Miami Strikes in years 1926, 1928 and 1935

Link to the worst and similar path to Irma below

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1926_Miami_hurricane

I agree we are not helping our planet but still not converted to AGW, am a firm believer in Cycles but not getting into all that stuff on this thread

You have missed out some of the cataclysmic weather events of the 17th century. I can recommend the fine book by Geoffrey Parker, Global Crisis: War, Climate Change & Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century if you haven't already read it. Brilliant book but like your post totally irrelevant to the current global warming and the science upon which it is based.

Edited by knocker
  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, knocker said:

You have missed out some of cataclysmic weather events of the 17th century. I can recommend the fine book by Geoffrey Parker, Global Crisis: War, Climate Change & Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century if you haven't already read it. Brilliant book but like your post totally irrelevant to the current global warming and the science upon which it is based.

Thanks Knocker,

No never heard of that but will definately find that book as all that Historic Weather Fascinates me! Also the big storms of the Uk in the 1700's which wiped out thousands of people. Remember the Uk has also had 2 EF5 Strength Tornadoes and again one a thousand years ago and another in the 1700s

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Thanks Knocker,

No never heard of that but will definately find that book as all that Historic Weather Fascinates me! Also the big storms of the Uk in the 1700's which wiped out thousands of people. Remember the Uk has also had 2 EF5 Strength Tornadoes and again one a thousand years ago and another in the 1700s

 

Ahhh the 1700's, a time when a loose stool would wipe out 10,000 people.

Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Seems Global Warming was in effect in the early 20th Century as well. The 1900 Galveston Hurricane being one of the worst but also 3 Miami Strikes in years 1926, 1928 and 1935

Link to the worst and similar path to Irma below

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1926_Miami_hurricane

I agree we are not helping our planet but still not converted to AGW, am a firm believer in Cycles but not getting into all that stuff on this thread

Unsurprisingly for me it's simple and linkable to Irma. 

We saw the difference with Irma moving from 27.5c waters to 28.5c waters had. 

If you have agw and the spread of warmer waters expands then you will get stronger hurricanes for longer. 

I agree you could quantify this but it would be difficult. Some effect though is beyond approach imho. 

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Iceberg said:

Unsurprisingly for me it's simple and linkable to Irma. 

We saw the difference with Irma moving from 27.5c waters to 28.5c waters had. 

If you have agw and the spread of warmer waters expands then you will get stronger hurricanes for longer. 

I agree you could quantify this but it would be difficult. Some effect though is beyond approach imho. 

Yes no brainer with the warmr SST's as we all know thats what makes Hurricanes survive! But with no data Pre 1851 in the Western Atlantic how do we know with certainty that fluxuations never occured 300-500 years ago, thats what I am trying to get across and until someone convinces me 110% that it could/would not have happened then I wont believe in it. 

The guy above is suggesting that a breeze would kill numerous in the 1700's if I am reading that correctly, but with Vineyards in the South of England and a balmy climate in Scotland 300 years ago then surely such differences were found around the world as well, and that surely could not be blamed on AGW ?

Link to the 1703 Storm by the way in case anyone thought that was a 990 LP that hit the Uk 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1703

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yes no brainer with the warmr SST's as we all know thats what makes Hurricanes survive! But with no data Pre 1851 in the Western Atlantic how do we know with certainty that fluxuations never occured 300-500 years ago, thats what I am trying to get across and until someone convinces me 110% that it could/would not have happened then I wont believe in it. 

The guy above is suggesting that a breeze would kill numerous in the 1700's if I am reading that correctly, but with Vineyards in the South of England and a balmy climate in Scotland 300 years ago then surely such differences were found around the world as well, and that surely could not be blamed on AGW ?

Link to the 1703 Storm by the way in case anyone thought that was a 990 LP that hit the Uk 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1703

I am following your line of argument, but there are Vineyards in the South nowadays. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Unfortunately, no matter what we do, these events will continue to happen regardless. 

I do think it is a bit far fetched to believe that all of these recent disasters are to be blamed directly on supposed global warming or 'climate change'. Who knows what may happen in the future. It will be interesting to see what happens during this solar minimum fast approaching. 

Anyhow, we are where we are and unfortunately it is looking pretty bleak for Florida and the Bahamas right this minute. How are they going to cope with this projected storm surge, and will the new building codes pass the biggest test possibly yet to date since Andrew in 1992.. The short timeframe will soon tell. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Goodness, all this nonsense blaming the strong Hurricanes on global warming / climate change. 

https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/905820404765179904

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/905926505825488897

https://twitter.com/SteveSGoddard/status/905882176326995968

https://twitter.com/ClimateRealists/status/9057635253516288

 

 

P.S, how do I embed tweets in to post? Normally I paste the link and it happens automatically. 

 

 

Edited by tomp456
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, tomp456 said:

Please don't go spamming climate denier twitters in here. 

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Unfortunately, no matter what we do, these events will continue to happen regardless. 

I do think it is a bit far fetched to believe that all of these recent disasters are to be blamed directly on supposed global warming or 'climate change'.

So do I so it's just as well that no reputable climate scientist is doing so.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree unless it's directly relavent to Irma let's leave agw out of it. 

Nhc have updated and Irma is now a cat 4. Path is the same and nhc has a Florida cat 4 hit as before. 

Nhc alsk talk about an erc. I see plenty of evidence for this. Including the strong outer wall on Cuba Doppler. However the inner wall is still strong and this is a. If unknown 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone know what happened to Charlie MC Charlie who had the facebook live from that Hotel in Turks & Caicos last night ? Was watching until 1230am our time but then all the facebook feeds went down ? Was that due to them cutting the electricity like all the other Islands have done ?

Would like to see how that one went as he had a great location

Link to post
Share on other sites

Caption

At 2:57 a.m. AST/EDT on Sept. 7, Infrared imagery from Suomi NPP revealed cloud top temperatures as cold as (white) 190 kelvin (minus 83.1 degrees Celsius/minus 117.7 degrees Fahrenheit) from Irma's northern quadrant, stretching through the eastern side to the south of the eye.

Credit

Credits: NOAA/NASA/UWM-CIMSS, William Straka III

149980_web.jpg

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Anyone know what happened to Charlie MC Charlie who had the facebook live from that Hotel in Turks & Caicos last night ? Was watching until 1230am our time but then all the facebook feeds went down ? Was that due to them cutting the electricity like all the other Islands have done ?

Would like to see how that one went as he had a great location

He just went to bed, had his feed running until it was to dark to really see anything.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning all :)

The aspect I'm struggling with is the huge divergence in MSLP across the models. GFS is still going sub-900 MB as Irma approaches Miami while GEM has the storm at 970 MB which is an enormous difference.  ECM has Irma in the 930s which makes more sense given the current data suggesting more a high Cat 4 than a Cat 5 at this time.

Link to post
Share on other sites

NOAA Storm Surge page: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/035421.shtml?inundation#contents

Turkey Point nuclear plant is looking at over 3ft to possibly over 6ft.

Homestead on the east coast looks vulnerable and the very small Everglades City (411 people) over on the west side looks like it's going to get a large storm surge too.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, stodge said:

Morning all :)

The aspect I'm struggling with is the huge divergence in MSLP across the models. GFS is still going sub-900 MB as Irma approaches Miami while GEM has the storm at 970 MB which is an enormous difference.  ECM has Irma in the 930s which makes more sense given the current data suggesting more a high Cat 4 than a Cat 5 at this time.

I read a quote form twiter saying the Euro model had predicted the track better, but the GFS had done better with the strength. Any truth in this?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Typical... the moment Irma is taken a whisker below category 4 strength, deep convection wraps neatly right around the eye... as if in angry retort!

It will be interesting to see how much impact Cuba's high mountains along the eastern-south coastline have on the storm. Every moment the storm moves west increases the likely impacts of Cuba as a whole of course... and of Irma on Cuba. It's unfortunate that the most direct impacts look to occur across the lowest-lying central parts of Cuba but what can you do.

I must say, Irma's done a great job of threading between most of the Bahamian islands. If it wasn't such a massive storm that would have really kept the damage down.

I sure hope the pattern changes by October in favour of cyclones staying out at sea - not that I'm seeing many signs of that in the longer-range at the mo... 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...