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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
    2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    I agree. Just a very amateur forecast, but the SST's to the south of Florida will surely provide an additional boost to Irma as she approaches Florida and the Keys?

    Vertical shear may be a factor.

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    It's has taken a while for power to be restored and proper wifi connectivity here in Antigua, but we're now back to normal.  Looking back at some posts on here and also the local 3 hourly Irma fo

    Seems Global Warming was in effect in the early 20th Century as well. The 1900 Galveston Hurricane being one of the worst but also 3 Miami Strikes in years 1926, 1928 and 1935 Link to the worst a

    It would appear that trumps resort on the smaller islands already impacted is devastated and now his beloved Mar a lago id in line for a pretty strong hit. It would be the irony of ironies if he

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    18 minutes ago, chillyblast said:

    Thats the NHC experimental model- certainly in with a shout with that value ---

    The ave seems to be kicking around 900MB on landfall !

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    Posted
  • Location: East Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder / lightning, Freezing rain, snow, ice and blizzards!
  • Location: East Mids

    This just came up looks pretty bad now:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    1 minute ago, crimsone said:

    Vertical shear may be a factor.

    It would but I given what I've seen I don't believe shear is an issue until Irma get up towards northern Florida

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Jeff piotrowski just now is saying that he is staying for this hurricane:shok:

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    3 minutes ago, crimsone said:

    Oh god, please no.

    Screen Shot 2017-09-07 at 23.22.46.png

    30 foot waves?

    That doesn't mean size of surge directly, I don't think/hope.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder / lightning, Freezing rain, snow, ice and blizzards!
  • Location: East Mids

    All FB streams down now, just the YouTube stream left.

    I think the SS was more like 40-45?

     

    Edited by chillyblast
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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
    2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

    30 foot waves?

    That doesn't mean size of surge directly, I don't think/hope.

    :shok::shok::shok:

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    Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

    Here's what it says about "significant wave height" rather than "swell wave height".

    I don't know how accurate this modelled radar is, but by damn, I'm hoping it's off by a country mile.

     

    Screen Shot 2017-09-07 at 23.31.49.png

    Edited by crimsone
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    Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    12z ECMWF ensembles suggest there's no dodging a bullet for Florida :closedeyes:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I  have been keeping an eye on these hurricanes via mobile, when I can. I have just caught up reading through this thread, and I want to say a thank you to all of you posting updates and charts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Jose now a major hurricane, upgraded to cat. 3 with 120mph winds, unfortunately it looks like it could affect Antigua and Barbuda on Saturday, before swinging away NW then N towards Bermuda, by which time it may have weakened a fair bit. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme.....
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex
    9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    I  have been keeping an eye on these hurricanes via mobile, when I can. I have just caught up reading through this thread, and I want to say a thank you to all of you posting updates and charts.

    Ditto xxx

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
    49 minutes ago, crimsone said:

    Here's what it says about "significant wave height" rather than "swell wave height".

    I don't know how accurate this modelled radar is, but by damn, I'm hoping it's off by a country mile.

     

    Screen Shot 2017-09-07 at 23.31.49.png

    I think it is based on the GFS model. The ECM has the same figures.

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/bahamas/sign-wave-height-direction-ft/20170908-0000z.html

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    Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
    Just now, Gael_Force said:

    I think it is based on the GFS model. The ECM has the same figures.

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/bahamas/sign-wave-height-direction-ft/20170908-0000z.html

    Indeed.

    Seems sufficient to overwash one or two of these islands with quite some force.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    1 minute ago, crimsone said:

    Location of the eye (117mph winds found on the way in):

     

    Screen Shot 2017-09-08 at 00.45.18.png

    that's weakened a lot, which is a good thing, or am I misunderstanding.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder / lightning, Freezing rain, snow, ice and blizzards!
  • Location: East Mids

    still looks absolutely immense.

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