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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

I agree. Just a very amateur forecast, but the SST's to the south of Florida will surely provide an additional boost to Irma as she approaches Florida and the Keys?

Vertical shear may be a factor.

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Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder / lightning, Freezing rain, snow, ice and blizzards!
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL

This just came up looks pretty bad now:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
1 minute ago, crimsone said:

Vertical shear may be a factor.

It would but I given what I've seen I don't believe shear is an issue until Irma get up towards northern Florida

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Jeff piotrowski just now is saying that he is staying for this hurricane:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
3 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Oh god, please no.

Screen Shot 2017-09-07 at 23.22.46.png

30 foot waves?

That doesn't mean size of surge directly, I don't think/hope.

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Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder / lightning, Freezing rain, snow, ice and blizzards!
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL

All FB streams down now, just the YouTube stream left.

I think the SS was more like 40-45?

 

Edited by chillyblast
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

30 foot waves?

That doesn't mean size of surge directly, I don't think/hope.

:shok::shok::shok:

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

Here's what it says about "significant wave height" rather than "swell wave height".

I don't know how accurate this modelled radar is, but by damn, I'm hoping it's off by a country mile.

 

Screen Shot 2017-09-07 at 23.31.49.png

Edited by crimsone
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

12z ECMWF ensembles suggest there's no dodging a bullet for Florida :closedeyes:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I  have been keeping an eye on these hurricanes via mobile, when I can. I have just caught up reading through this thread, and I want to say a thank you to all of you posting updates and charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Jose now a major hurricane, upgraded to cat. 3 with 120mph winds, unfortunately it looks like it could affect Antigua and Barbuda on Saturday, before swinging away NW then N towards Bermuda, by which time it may have weakened a fair bit. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme.....
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex
9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I  have been keeping an eye on these hurricanes via mobile, when I can. I have just caught up reading through this thread, and I want to say a thank you to all of you posting updates and charts.

Ditto xxx

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
49 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Here's what it says about "significant wave height" rather than "swell wave height".

I don't know how accurate this modelled radar is, but by damn, I'm hoping it's off by a country mile.

 

Screen Shot 2017-09-07 at 23.31.49.png

I think it is based on the GFS model. The ECM has the same figures.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/bahamas/sign-wave-height-direction-ft/20170908-0000z.html

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
Just now, Gael_Force said:

I think it is based on the GFS model. The ECM has the same figures.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/bahamas/sign-wave-height-direction-ft/20170908-0000z.html

Indeed.

Seems sufficient to overwash one or two of these islands with quite some force.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 minute ago, crimsone said:

Location of the eye (117mph winds found on the way in):

 

Screen Shot 2017-09-08 at 00.45.18.png

that's weakened a lot, which is a good thing, or am I misunderstanding.

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Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder / lightning, Freezing rain, snow, ice and blizzards!
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL

still looks absolutely immense.

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