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22 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Just been watching the Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda describing the extent of the damage on Barbuda on his visit there this evening - this screenshot explains why (amongst many things) the residents of Barbuda couldn't make any contact with anyone...

 

59b07b9751f97_ScreenShot2017-09-06at23_47_47.thumb.png.bfa13fb8e8384711ffa660d8f524b323.png

 

The aerial footage etc can be found here: 

 

 

I'm happy to see that people did survive over there. They will be very lucky though if the death tol doesn't rise. I'm hoping it doesn't but expecting to hear otherwise.

Edited by alexisj9
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It's has taken a while for power to be restored and proper wifi connectivity here in Antigua, but we're now back to normal.  Looking back at some posts on here and also the local 3 hourly Irma fo

Seems Global Warming was in effect in the early 20th Century as well. The 1900 Galveston Hurricane being one of the worst but also 3 Miami Strikes in years 1926, 1928 and 1935 Link to the worst a

It would appear that trumps resort on the smaller islands already impacted is devastated and now his beloved Mar a lago id in line for a pretty strong hit. It would be the irony of ironies if he

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7 hours ago, staplehurst said:

Just been watching the Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda describing the extent of the damage on Barbuda on his visit there this evening - this screenshot explains why (amongst many things) the residents of Barbuda couldn't make any contact with anyone...

 

59b07b9751f97_ScreenShot2017-09-06at23_47_47.thumb.png.bfa13fb8e8384711ffa660d8f524b323.png

 

The aerial footage etc can be found here: 

 

 

Feeling stunned especially with the imminent risk of a repeat from Jose. Where will all these shocked and homeless people sleep tonight, next week, next month? How will the Government of Antigua and Barbuda find the money to rebuild virtually the entirety of Barbuda's infrastructure and houses?

With Irma churning mercilessly onwards, focus will inevitably be on the risk to Florida and this small island's struggle and the struggles of St Martin, St Barthélemy, Anguilla et al may get lost in that coverage. I hope not.

Just hoping that Jose's track avoids Barbuda and the other damaged Leeward Islands. 

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I posted some links to twitter accounts last night and later on viewed the photos on them.

 

I was speechless. The track of this storm has been near perfect for destruction less Cuba and Porto Rico

Edited by Had Worse
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For the latest op runs, the UKMO takes her up the W coast of the panhandle before moving inland. As mentioned above, the ECM more or less directly targets Miami, while the GFS and GEM take her further E, just avoiding landfall. It's somewhat moot though as they all diverge so early on.

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I don't think Irma is strengthening ATM. She seems to have briefly gone sub 910 yesterday prior midnight as 909.6 was recorded. But since then a steady leak in pressure can be seen.Cloud tops are warmer and the eye wall is weaker. Dvorak has decreased from t7.4 to t6.7. Recon are finding pressure around 918 or so. 

Irma is still a cat 5 and very dangerous but not 160kt I would go for 150 possible 155kt ATM. 

The above is normal though she will flucatuate in strength and probably needs a change in eye wall to get sub 900. No model can forecast this so very much watch and wait. 

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10 hours ago, crimsone said:

Pivot, Jammer, AND blocker.

#DerbyJoke
#ProbablyTheOnlyOneThatGotIt
#SorryNotSorry
#ThisThingIsIntenseAndINeedToHaveHumour

Haha not the only one to get it.. 

#retiredjammerhurricanefollower

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To compound the worry todays ECM ( all be it a long way away ) has Jose forecast to follow pretty much the same track as Irma !

 

ECM 72 this morning is a direct hit to Miami & continues to be about 100 miles west of GFS track...

Edited by Steve Murr
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https://www.facebook.com/pg/stmartinnewsnetwork/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1439449566108784

In case you missed it, this is a collection of photos showing the total devastation left from the path of Irma.

I cant begin to think of how one can move on from this, its going to take years of rebuilding.

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Possibly a two-faced analysis is appropriate this morning as Irma's eyewall has become less symmetrical but at the same time the CDO has recovered on the western side such that the braoder structure is more symmetrical. As such one could conclude that if the eyewall sorts itself out again within the next few hours, another round of strengthening is likely to take place.

Whether that'd be to more than 185 mph it remains to be seen. Heat content increases for the storm over the Bahamas, but so does land interaction, albeit to a very minor extent. I've not been able to locate a wind shear forecast as my usual sources have been inundated with impact-related discussions (understandably so).

I expect I'm not alone, though, in suspecting that the true peak winds edged nearer 190 or so for a time during the dip in pressure sub-910 mb. It depends of course on how the surrounding pressure environment has changed, if at all; higher than usual pressure around the storm has allowed for stronger winds than usual relative to core pressure so if that conditions has subsided at all, the dip in pressure will have been balanced against with winds not peaking above the 185 figure. It does appear that the NHC have been running with, supported by recon data where possible.

I want to believe that the storm has hit its lifetime peak and will not pack quite such an extreme punch for the Bahamas, but storms like Joaquin of recent years indicate that a second peak in Irma can't be ruled out at this time. Fingers crossed it doesn't come to pass.

 

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7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

To compound the worry todays ECM ( all be it a long way away ) has Jose forecast to follow pretty much the same track as Irma !

 

ECM 72 this morning is a direct hit to Miami & continues to be about 100 miles west of GFS track...

Not exactly on the way there, but I get what you mean by where it ends up;

bf9789579ddbc5ee8d124f1ebff1638bac612d9f

It does look pretty 'circumstantial' though; the trough-ridge sequence has to be just-so for such a loop to take place.

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25 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

https://www.facebook.com/pg/stmartinnewsnetwork/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1439449566108784

In case you missed it, this is a collection of photos showing the total devastation left from the path of Irma.

I cant begin to think of how one can move on from this, its going to take years of rebuilding.

Climate change unfortunately.

People have been warned often enough what will happen if action isn't taken to tackle the problem.

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17 minutes ago, knocker said:

nest_uv900_31.thumb.png.ab8613c024cc88eb521e45243bca1b51.png

Looking at this morning's models, I think Florida will escape a direct hit. With the exception of the ECM, the rest show a slight eastwards shift which often happens as we approach T0.

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6 minutes ago, karyo said:

Looking at this morning's models, I think Florida will escape a direct hit. With the exception of the ECM, the rest show a slight eastwards shift which often happens as we approach T0.

UKMO, JMA, and CMA all take her W of the panhandle. I'm wary of reading too much into any of these forecast tracks. There's divergence at T24.

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4 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

UKMO, JMA, and CMA all take her W of the panhandle. I'm wary of reading too much into any of these forecast tracks. There's divergence at T24.

I don't check the secondary models (JMA, CMA, GEM etc) as I find them unreliable. The UKMO still brings Irma to Cuba and weakens her somewhat as a result.

We will have a better picture this afternoon providing they come to some sort of agreement.

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