Hurricane Irma

[Mokidugway]

No webcams in the region at all now ,for obvious reasons I guess

[chillyblast]

If you look on periscope.tv you can find the odd live stream there:

https://www.periscope.tv/search?q=hurricane+irma

[cowdog]

7 minutes ago, chillyblast said:

They said on the news (yesterday) due to the effect on trees and also the storm surge, either way, mind blowing. The footage is other worldly, like a human colony on Neptune or something.

cowdog^^^^ the footage has since changed, it was live, showing people trying to rescue passengers from an over turned coach but they couldn't get to them due to the wind.

Its not live footage. In fact the bit it was just showing isn't even from this hurricane its from years ago!

The webcam that the previous footage was from is linked pages back in this thread, it died hours before the worst hit.

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather FB live

 

[Yarmy]

Large differences as early as T30 on the GFS 12z op. Confidence in the track is a long way off. 

[Mokidugway]

12 minutes ago, chillyblast said:

If you look on periscope.tv you can find the odd live stream there:

https://www.periscope.tv/search?q=hurricane+irma

Cheers 

[cowdog]

GFS 12Z showing it going over the top of Miami, also seems to be slowed in its movement so any damage will be increased.

[Iceberg]

Yep 12z much slower keeping it over water and effecting Florida and the keys far more sub 900 on landfall and the eye over Miami. 

I wouldn't discount this run. Very similar to ec. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Irma's eye giving Miami a kiss

[Barbmac]

Crazy winds in this livestream:

https://www.facebook.com/livemap/#@18.019221727766823,-64.44580078125,9z

[karyo]

It is only a small shift west but it makes quite a bit of difference.

Then a second landfall to Georgia/South Carolina border.

[cheese]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

It is only a small shift west but it makes quite a bit of difference.

Then a second landfall to Georgia/South Carolina border.

Yup.. that's the thing. Even a small shift makes a big difference. I remember Hurricane Charley in 2004 was supposed to make landfall in Tampa, but it went about 50 miles south. Tampa still got strong winds, but not a direct landfall from a Cat 4 (Punta Gorda got a direct hit instead).

I suspect we won't have a firm grasp of the track until a day or two out..

Edited September 6, 2017 by cheese

[karyo]

Just now, cheese said:

Yup.. that's the thing. Even a small shift makes a big difference. I remember Hurricane Charley in 2004 was supposed to make landfall in Tampa, but it went about 50 miles south. Tampa still got strong winds, but not a direct landfall from a Cat 4.

I suspect we won't have a firm grasp of the track until a day or two out..

Yes, it just occurred to me that the Florida hit (if it happens as shown on the 12z gfs) is less than 100 hours away but still too far out.

[toggerob]

Sobering to think that 389,714 people live in San Juan, and Irma still isn't letting-up in the way of sustained windspeeds. 

[Kiwi]

Eye now beginning to move over Virgin Gorda.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states-regional/pr/san-juan

 

[Gray-Wolf]

But we do know , at this point, that some places are/will get it bad ( Virgin isles next up)   

 

[philglossop]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Statement by the Hon Gaston Browne. Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda

 

If this is verified this is the best news of the day given that at 4am watching this barrel down in Barbuda with the eye crossing it seemed more worrying than this. Sadly I do think there will be a few loss of life in Barbuda but given our worries even up to a couple of hours ago... 

In these days of unstable and nightmare Politics this man and the government  of A and B have avoided the nightmare Cat 5 with honour.

With increased metrology knowledge the islands have prepared, dealt with and survived. And that has to be a good thing. 

[Kiwi]

1 minute ago, Gray-Wolf said:

But we do know , at this point, that some places are/will get it bad ( Virgin isles next up)   

 

Eye passing over BVI now. Looks like Necker Island (where Richard Branson is sheltering in his wine cellar) stays on the edge of the eyewall ...and will get hit by the NE quadrant (strongest winds?) as the eye passes.

[Yarmy]

GEM and UKMO on the same page as the GFS: destination Miami.  Let's see what the ECM does. Consensus does not necessarily imply correctness.

[Mokidugway]

8 minutes ago, Kiwi said:

Eye passing over BVI now. Looks like Necker Island (where Richard Branson is sheltering in his wine cellar) stays on the edge of the eyewall ...and will get hit by the NE quadrant (strongest winds?) as the eye passes.

Necker might join his fleet of 747s under those conditions 

[Iceberg]

Recon have just done a pass through the nw quad. 

Pressure still at 916mb and surface winds still of 150kt+

still 100% a cat 5

[toggerob]

 

[Barking_Mad]

There's a weather station here you can keep an eye on in the Virgin Islands. If you want it's precise whereabouts, it's the little white mark again the small jetty here.

Currently showing gusts of 71 knots.

 

Also as previously mentioned the Soggy Dollar Bay web cam, here which is in the US Virgin Islands and is a little further west.

Edited September 6, 2017 by Barking_Mad

[Iceberg]

The problem with the gfs and tbh whatever the path is going to be. Is that the Irma travels straight up the coast. The surge will be monsterous with 30 hrs up every each of the east side of Florida. 

This is of course after a Miami hit and the winds effecting the major towns and cities 

[Mokidugway]

Storm surges can reach 10 meters plus ,almost a tsunami albeit slower .