Hurricane Irma

[toggerob]

[SalopWatcher]

What a time to leave your boot open

[crimsone]

Getting a bit disturbed by the fact that places with facebook livestreams that then see the eye tend not to have facebook live streams afterwards.

Doubley so, because some pretty bloody strong webcams aren't surviving the first pass of the wall, though that could be down to power as much as the cams.

Tripley so because even if you survive the first pass of the eyewall and get into the eye, the wind then blows in the other direction against a weakened structure.

I desperately want to see the aftermath in one of these islands, just to know one way or the other.

[Had Worse]

Like you said, phone mast survives first pass as does power and then on the reversal, the power , mast or both fail.

[toggerob]

St.Maarten in the eye of Irma

[Soaring Hawk]

4 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Getting a bit disturbed by the fact that places with facebook livestreams that then see the eye tend not to have facebook live streams afterwards.

Doubley so, because some pretty bloody strong webcams aren't surviving the first pass of the wall, though that could be down to power as much as the cams.

Tripley so because even if you survive the first pass of the eyewall and get into the eye, the wind then blows in the other direction against a weakened structure.

I desperately want to see the aftermath in one of these islands, just to know one way or the other.

Feel the same.  That poor Brett Fetterolf's live stream suddenly stopped.  His house was leaking and he sounded extremely stressed. I hope he's alright, especially as I've just seen Snow Joke's photo of devastation taken in the eye. Was listening to an interview on Facebook and they said they would lift the hurricane warning from Barbuda and Antigua around 1pm our time although they have still had no communication from Barbuda. 

 

5 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Getting a bit disturbed by the fact that places with facebook livestreams that then see the eye tend not to have facebook live streams afterwards.

Doubley so, because some pretty bloody strong webcams aren't surviving the first pass of the wall, though that could be down to power as much as the cams.

Tripley so because even if you survive the first pass of the eyewall and get into the eye, the wind then blows in the other direction against a weakened structure.

I desperately want to see the aftermath in one of these islands, just to know one way or the other.

 

[MattTarrant]

11 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Getting a bit disturbed by the fact that places with facebook livestreams that then see the eye tend not to have facebook live streams afterwards.

Doubley so, because some pretty bloody strong webcams aren't surviving the first pass of the wall, though that could be down to power as much as the cams.

Tripley so because even if you survive the first pass of the eyewall and get into the eye, the wind then blows in the other direction against a weakened structure.

I desperately want to see the aftermath in one of these islands, just to know one way or the other.

I absolutely agree with you. I don't want to sound lame but no one should be live streaming in the middle of a category 5 hurricane. People's lives matter much more than giving viewers excitement in my honest opinion. 

[toggerob]

The strongest of the winds have been observed to the NE quadrant of Irma since yesterday, where the 185mph sustained winds were recorded. Unfortunately for St.Maarten unless there's a major wobble by Irma which isn't likely, the island will be entering those strongest winds within the next half-hour. Just hoping that those in the eye who are taking pictures and livestreaming via FB haven't wandered away too far from their shelters.

[crimsone]

Brett Fetterolf, the poor sod, is still updating... 

... but the stress is only going up, and the building is only getting more unstable. I am deeply concerned for his life. As, I suspect, is he.

His is probably the one livestream I approve of; trapped in the strongest building you can find, and potentially facing the end of your life having never expected it'd get so bad, what else to do but communicate with the world?

[Barking_Mad]

Some footage of flooding in St Marteen

Also here

 

https://twitter.com/RCI_GP/status/905381154970329088

 

[crimsone]

For a moment I thought that a dot on the facebook livestream map over Barbuda might be a sign of life. Alas, it's ABC news streaming a radar image

[wellington boot]

Question for everyone. Is a close glancing blow, for instance what GFS currently shows for Miami, really significantly better than a direct hit? Looking at the peak wind speeds on the maps or the standard pressure maps, hurricane force winds aren't that tight to the centre of the hurricane - surely if it passed that close to Miami, the city would experience a significant hurricane regardless of whether the landfall was properly made?

[crimsone]

4 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

Question for everyone. Is a close glancing blow, for instance what GFS currently shows for Miami, really significantly better than a direct hit? Looking at the peak wind speeds on the maps or the standard pressure maps, hurricane force winds aren't that tight to the centre of the hurricane - surely if it passed that close to Miami, the city would experience a significant hurricane regardless of whether the landfall was properly made?

Very different for anything that took the direct hit.

Currently, anything that goes through the eyewall comes out the other side completely devastated. We've yet to see what happens after passing through the eyewall a second time.

[Methuselah]

The tenor of this thread has (quite rightly) changed, during the past couple of days: what was 'oh, what a lovely hurricane!' has changed into 'oh, bloody hell, the world's facing yet another natural disaster!'...With each passing hour, the potential scale of tragedy is rising!

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

Question for everyone. Is a close glancing blow, for instance what GFS currently shows for Miami, really significantly better than a direct hit? Looking at the peak wind speeds on the maps or the standard pressure maps, hurricane force winds aren't that tight to the centre of the hurricane - surely if it passed that close to Miami, the city would experience a significant hurricane regardless of whether the landfall was properly made?

I think one may find that the storm surge may be more of a problem Most of the Everglades are less than five feet above MSL

[toggerob]

And from the French side - Marigot St. Marti

Edited September 6, 2017 by SNOW_JOKE

[MattTarrant]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The tenor of this thread has (quite rightly) changed, during the past couple of days: what was 'oh, what a lovely hurricane!' has changed into 'oh, bloody hell, the world's facing yet another natural disaster!'...With each passing hour, the potential scale of tragedy is rising!

I feel incredibly worried about St Marteen, possibly being hit by the NE Eyewall will be likely to flatten almost every building. For anyone currently there and stuck in it, this includes St Barts, Antigua & Barbuda, I would probably be correct in saying that this forum is sending prayers and best wishes your way. 

Edited September 6, 2017 by MattTarrant

[Singularity]

Looking at this, Irma has actually performed a wiggle sufficient to place St Barth's in the northern eye wall. Talk about tough luck!

That bit of westward movement certainly unnerved some in PR but a NW movement does look to have resumed now, albeit based on only the last two frames.

In terms of the eye and CDO as a whole, there seems to be a bit of a balancing act going on between increased mid-level wind shear and increased available energy from the waters; the CDO has become slightly elliptical but the intensity of convection has increased slightly to compensate.

As a result, the storm is officially maintaining peak sustained winds of 185 mph despite a less than optimal structure. Should wind shear relax again any time soon then we could see that run at 190 mph+ depending of course on the timing of EWRCs - one of which the storm appears to be gradually approaching as the eye has slowly been shrinking during the past few hours.

[Barking_Mad]

Miami is 6ft above sea level. 

[AderynCoch]

Poor Anguilla is now getting the strongest part of the storm. That photo of St. Maarten is terrible, and the fact there's still nothing coming of Barbuda is very concerning.

The British Virgin Islands are in big trouble, especially Anegada (the northernmost member).

[Singularity]

Never mind the translation; the point is clear enough. That's a very low pressure to experience first-hand by those who are still on the island.

[Barking_Mad]

 

"Tropical storm Jose, the weather system behind Irma, is now forecast to become a hurricane by tonight. It is forecast to hit the Caribbean islands currently being lashed by Irma, at the weekend. Another tropical storm, Katia, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico."

[jvenge]

43 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

St.Maarten in the eye of Irma

That looks expensive...

[crimsone]

Bit of good news... this livestream still being active...

There's a sign of life on St. Maarten still.
 

 

[Barking_Mad]

Stream here from 

 

Philipsburg, Netherlands Antilles

https://www.facebook.com/stfysant/videos/2101048946587693/

 

Edited September 6, 2017 by Barking_Mad