Hurricane Irma

[karyo]

27 minutes ago, stodge said:

Morning all

For completeness, here's GEM 00Z OP at T+240:

The Gulf of Mexico option is back on the table here with landfalls in Bahama and Florida first.

The NHC guidance now suggests a turn back to the WNW at the weekend which will spare Martinique and probably Puerto Rico from direct hits but whether the Bahamas and Florida will be so fortunate is impossible to say at this time.

This looks like yesterday's ECM.

The 6z GFS keeps Irma mostly away from land. Some impacts for Nova Scotia but no blockbuster landfall.

[Iceberg]

Got to say the Irma doesn't look great at the moment. 

Really quite ragged and I would suggest maybe only a cat 1. 

I am not sure the reason for this except maybe the small cdo through lack of convection and low sst's. 

It should get better eventually but when is anybodies guess. 

[MattTarrant]

1 hour ago, Iceberg said:

Got to say the Irma doesn't look great at the moment. 

Really quite ragged and I would suggest maybe only a cat 1. 

I am not sure the reason for this except maybe the small cdo through lack of convection and low sst's. 

It should get better eventually but when is anybodies guess. 

Irma is currently tracking through an area West North West of the Cape Verde Islands. This area has somewhat lower SST's, thus inhibiting its development recently and likely for the next 6 - 12 hrs.  

I imagine this is the reason. The attached Images showcase Irma's location, with the Blue Box representing where Irma is currently with regards to the SST's. The speckled dots Is Cape Verde and its related Islands. 

[Iceberg]

Yep another 12-18 hrs under sub 28c ssts. 

I do wonder whether there was a tad bit of shear as well. I know the models didn't prog any but....

anyway t numbers went down to around 70kts but just recently she seems to have improved in structure. Currently waiting for dvorak to respond accordingly. 

We should know before 8pmish if Irma will have another go at a cat 4 prior to hitting higher ssts and increased moisture field. 

[Iceberg]

Raw t numbers have indeed shot up and are now almost the strongest they have been for Irma. 

Back to major strength imho. 

On sat we are seeing a bigger cdo, better defined eye and more of a saw look to the cdo edge all classic ri features. 

If anything outflow now seems to be inhibited to the south so maybe a touch of shear effect kt outflow I've got a feeling Irma has simply moved into a slightly more favourable environment which has allowed its inner core to sort it self out after some kind of erc 

Edited September 1, 2017 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

Dvorak is now the strongest it has been for Irma. It currently indicates that Irma is closing in on a cat 4. 

Visually irma looks the best it has as well and has grown quite a hit for ages. 

Ecm is rolling out and has a quicker deeper trough which means a bigger ridge and Irma likely to hit the us is a major way. 

Edited September 1, 2017 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

A scary weeble cat 5 sat on the door step with 915mb pressure

[Daniel*]

She means business!

 

[knocker]

This is an interesting thought

 

[stodge]

Evening all

Indeed it is Knocker. I wonder if there is a complex inter-relationship between these major storms which isn't well understood at present.

As to Irma, the 12Z models are showing some convergence and two options appear to be on the way out - the "fish" storm and a storm ploughing through the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico.

Concensus seems to be building toward a NW and later more NNW'ly shift taking Irma through the Bahamas but keeping her to the east of Florida but with landfall somewhere along the east coast of the US looking probable but anywhere from Georgia/Carolina up to New Jersey and even New York all at risk. There's less chance of a clean re-curve back into the Atlantic with Irma making landfall and being absorbed into a trough over Canada. 

She's looking a very strong storm with central pressure below 920 MB.

[Iceberg]

Irma has just been upgraded to 105kts by nhc. 

Personally I think that's rather conservative and she is nearer 115kt but a mute point really. 

Recon isn't due until Monday. So a long wait until we get a real sample  and at that point I think she might be rather a monster. 

I do think she's come off the boil a bit in the last 30-45 mins. 

[crimsone]

SSTs look pretty tasty wherever it ends up.



Hopefully not the texas coast though, by which time temps will have all but recovered from Harvey.

[karyo]

18z gfs: Irma makes landfall somewhere around Boston and then travels north across eastern Canada.

[summer blizzard]

Personally i'm 40% fish and 40% a Carolina hit. I don't really buy a Florida hit or GOM track. 

[knocker]

This morning's gfs. It should be emphasised all of this is still very problematic Last night's GEFS ens had it further south , I suspect because it loses the east North American trough.

Edited September 2, 2017 by knocker

[Iceberg]

Yes gfs has the other likely scenario. Which could be equally as bad as the ec track. Gfs is probably as doomy as it could be with a cat 5 hitting Delaware and New Jersey. 

[knocker]

The GEFS still trending to an upper trough in the south east

 

Edited September 2, 2017 by knocker

[January Snowstorm]

@ knocker.....sometimes your turn of phrase is confusing to me. I presume 'upper trough' means the hurricane we are discussing? 

[Iceberg]

The ec just rolling out shows how variable the path can be even in the short frame.  It interacts Irma with the islands and Puerto Rico even at t120. 

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

@ knocker.....sometimes your turn of phrase is confusing to me. I presume 'upper trough' means the hurricane we are discussing? 

No JS the upper trough is a reference to the overall pattern over N, America and the trough in the south east and high pressure to the north which has a bearing on the steering direction of Irma. The trough associated with the latter is east of Florida. It's really only of academic interest at the moment though.

[Iceberg]

Ec getting worse if that's possible. 

[Nick L]

4 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Ec getting worse if that's possible. 

Yep, EC is determined to smash Florida with this. Anyone going on holiday in that area in the next couple of weeks needs to keep an eye on this. Georgia and the Carolinas too.

Edited September 2, 2017 by Nick L

[Iceberg]

Purely of interest as the path will change but the ec moves the upper trough away more quickly Hence less interaction with Irma and therefore a position further west and south. 

This looks like a direct Nassau hit to me a sub 920 cat 5. 

[Iceberg]

From everything I've seen the potential cone seems to be mid Bottom of Miami to New York. I.e. The entire eastern seaboard. 

Chances of a fish are dropping dramatically and chances of a gom entry are fading rapidly. Imho 

[karyo]

The US east coast will wake up today to some terrifying model runs! The only good news is that the track will change but the chances of landfall have increased a lot today.