Hurricane Irma

[Iceberg]

4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Just watching the Weather Channel and they're now reporting that Irma is back to a Cat 4 with maximum sustained winds of 130mph.  

They've taken the 111kts and then bumped it up as it's close to the states. Cat 4 is 113kts. A sensible decision as this will get carried on news channels and get people's notice a bit quicker. 

[Ice Day]

7 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

They've taken the 111kts and then bumped it up as it's close to the states. Cat 4 is 113kts. A sensible decision as this will get carried on news channels and get people's notice a bit quicker. 

That's possible and I suppose with the pressure dropping as it is, they can be pretty confident that the wind strength is going to increase accordingly.  

[Polar Bear]

Just trying to get up to speed from last night. So she still is hogging Cuba, has she started to track north yet? 

Ive seen a few tracks and comments and the view was she would track up West Florida now. Is that still the case? 

Isn't the Hamilton's exclusive properties located along that side? 

Checked all those beech webcams too and yep no signal. 

[Barbmac]

A guy on the Keys with an IR camera thru his window

 

https://www.facebook.com/livemap/#@24.56273686820862,-81.61674499511719,10z

[Snow and storms]

I am reading from various online sources that all of Key West has lost power now hence the cams being down. The last images from the cams suggesting the water had risen quite a bit.

[Snow and storms]

https://www.facebook.com/livemap/#@24.56211235799689,-81.61674499511719,10z

Found this guy on Facebook live using thermal cam recording.

[Iceberg]

Naples , fort mayers etc over 1 million people. 

The storm surge over 9ft for some areas and over 2-3 miles inland. 

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-irma-naples-20170909-story.html

according to this and other stories too late to evacuate. 

Red is 9ft blue 1 ft 

[Iceberg]

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8724580

key west info as Irma slowly approaches. 

[Polar Maritime]

Another chart 're storm surge from NOAA.

 

 

[Kiwi]

23 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

Just trying to get up to speed from last night. So she still is hogging Cuba, has she started to track north yet? 

Ive seen a few tracks and comments and the view was she would track up West Florida now. Is that still the case? 

Isn't the Hamilton's exclusive properties located along that side? 

Checked all those beech webcams too and yep no signal. 

2:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 10     ie 7am uk time
Location: 23.7°N 81.3°W
Moving: NW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 931 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

Heading NW away from Cuba now, towards Key West and west coast of Florida. NHC now predict hugging the west coast all the way up Florida towards Tallahasse

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/034247.shtml?gm_track#contents

[Polar Bear]

Just now, Kiwi said:

2:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 10     ie 7am uk time
Location: 23.7°N 81.3°W
Moving: NW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 931 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

Heading NW away from Cuba now, towards Key West and west coast of Florida. NHC now predict hugging the west coast all the way up Florida towards Tallahasse

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/034247.shtml?gm_track#contents

Thank you Kiwi, excellent. 

[Barking_Mad]

 

 

 

[SMU]

Just on model performance

once again UKMO > all again.

[Kiwi]

5 minutes ago, Barking_Mad said:

 

 

 

If the eye remains just offshore does this mean that Irma is likely to maintain her strength all the way up the coast?

Particularly bad news for the Tampa Bay area I'd have thought.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Just on model performance

once again UKMO > all again.

Amazing isn't it!  Believe the latest ukmo guidance now has it further east than the gfs/ecm so it seems ukmo was best in the 4/6 day with ec honing in on the west coast of the panhandle route best in the sub T72 period 

[SMU]

UKMO 00z 6th

all other models were east of florida generally!

[SMU]

That westward shift is very bad news for places like Tampa where the storm surge is worst when the are just in the NE quadrant under SW winds forcing the water inland-

Generally that track will be worse case scenario for the west coast --

s

[staplehurst]

Tracks from 4 days ago (6th), where only a small minority of ensemble members had Irma going up the west coast of Florida, or even staying out over the eastern Gulf.

  

There were a couple of runs of the GDPS that had Irma going as far west as New Orleans a few days ago.

 

and of course just a week ago Irma was forecast to be either a fish storm or make landfall somewhere in North Carolina according to the majority of NWP guidance back then...

[chillyblast]

These are the only cams I could find still working, I was watching the Seaport cam at about 2am and large fish were being washed up against the property on the cam as the sea had breached the wall, so it must be pretty bad now.

 

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/miamiandthebeaches/?cam=miamibeach1

 

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/miamiandthebeaches/?cam=miamibeach3

http://www.windjammerresort.com/webcam.html

 

Edited September 10, 2017 by chillyblast

[knocker]

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

So for this model to be right, Irma will have not to deepen anymore till landfall as the pressure is at 931mb now.

[AderynCoch]

Key West radar:

http://www.weather.gov/key/

[Had Worse]

Does this radar have its own power source?

I suppose the structure itself could fail given the intensity.

[chillyblast]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-20

 

[The PIT]

Looks like a eyewall replacement going on the latest loop