Hurricane Irma

[SnowBear]

22 minutes ago, crimsone said:

I'm kind of sad that Kold Weather seems to have gone away at some point. Kold was really good with hurricanes. Alas, I disappeared for a while (well, for a few years), and (less than) suddenly all the names changed. I'm still proudly parodying Pete's signature though

2005 was the best year on here, we had a good bunch tracking Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan and then of course Wilma. A year where they ran out of names and went to Zeta in the Greek alphabet! There was a wealth of information on miniobs etc, tracking, sat images, wonderful discussions and we were pretty close on tracks even a few days out. 

Then I guess real life got in the way and we all drifted off! lol

[crimsone]

Storm surge threat just got even more serious. Updated forecast has 10-15 feet along the coast near Naples.
 

Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida
Keys...5 to 10 ft
Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay...4 to 6 ft
Isle of Palms, South Carolina to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to North Miami Beach...2 to 4 ft

 

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Ragged Island in the Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Central and Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

 

[crimsone]

Waterspout warning...

It's like a tornado warning, except instead of tornado it's called "special marine"...
 

BISCAYNE BAY...
  COASTAL WATERS FROM KEY BISCAYNE TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 10 NM...

* UNTIL 1215 PM EDT

* AT 1201 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
  WATERSPOUTS WAS LOCATED NEAR CAPE FLORIDA...MOVING WEST AT 50 
  KNOTS.

Edited September 9, 2017 by crimsone

[crimsone]

These things coming thick and fast, it seems...

 

* Tornado Warning for...
  South central Collier County in southwestern Florida...

* Until 1230 PM EDT

* At 1208 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located 10 miles southwest of Big Cypress National
  Preserve, or 11 miles northeast of Chokoloskee, moving west at 45
  mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.  
HAIL...<.75IN

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

Edited September 9, 2017 by crimsone

[Mokidugway]

20 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Storm surge threat just got even more serious. Updated forecast has 10-15 feet along the coast near Naples.
 

Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida
Keys...5 to 10 ft
Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay...4 to 6 ft
Isle of Palms, South Carolina to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to North Miami Beach...2 to 4 ft

 

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Ragged Island in the Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Central and Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

 

Not good the highest point on key west apart from mount trashmore is 5 m,and other keys are much lower 

[SMU]

Just reviewing the sat loops Irma is hugging the coast-

Everyone is waiting with baiting breath for the turn North & the potential rapid intensification-

If it was to bomb to sub 900 then what a storm this will have been ....

eyes down for the next 12-18 hours---

[toggerob]

Jeff Piotrowski Periscope link, he's heading south I believe to intercept Irma

https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1ZkKzOkllLqGv

[BurntFishTrousers]

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=byx&product=NCR&loop=yes

Irma is now under the scope of Key West radar, so hourly [NHC] updates will begin at 1600 UTC.

[Chris.R]

Jeff now tracking multiple tornado warned storms. He also reports that people who were evacuated from the east coast to the SW are now being sent back East. https://www.pscp.tv/w/bIK5wjFQbUVxWFhOWk1Oam98MW1uR2VtT1lxTUFHWHhubFq-GVAvlnxGQYWI1yrgb2FPzxqbU4qXIDmc5iui

[crimsone]

Overlapping new tornado warning

 

* Tornado Warning for...
  South central Collier County in southwestern Florida...

* Until 1245 PM EDT

* At 1222 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located near Carnestown, or near Chokoloskee, moving
  west southwest at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. 

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Everglades City, Chokoloskee, Plantation Island and Carnestown.

[in the vale]

34 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Storm surge threat just got even more serious. Updated forecast has 10-15 feet along the coast near Naples.
 

Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida
Keys...5 to 10 ft
Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay...4 to 6 ft
Isle of Palms, South Carolina to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to North Miami Beach...2 to 4 ft

 

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Ragged Island in the Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Central and Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

 

Shine a light. Captiva is about 4ft ASL.

[crimsone]

Screenshot from Jeff's periscope

[Iceberg]

Irma is starting to develop quite an angry red ring around the eye. Cloud tops are getting increasingly cold. 

T numbers have just started to increase quite markedly. 

Irma is still quite close to land and this intensification is a Surprise. 

I think things are already on the bad side of the intensification scale   

I've also popped a shot in from earlier so folks can see how much and how quickly things are starting to ramp up. 

[Chris.R]

Latest from Jeff: tracking a tornado warned storm near Everglade city, trying not to be attacked by a panther.  

[SMU]

Agree that looks solid late 3 or early cat 4

[cowdog]

2 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Irma is starting to develop quite an angry red ring around the eye. Cloud tops are getting increasingly cold. 

T numbers have just started to increase quite markedly. 

Irma is still quite close to land and this intensification is a Surprise. 

I think things are already on the bad side of the intensification scale  

.. SNIP..

 

If memory serves the current sea temperatures ramp up around that point, so would explain the intensification. Wish I had saved the link to that chart.

[Gray-Wolf]

Are we just seeing a 'wobble' or are we seeing the eye pull away from shore in the last few frames of the floater loop?

If so then we move back a shade east with forecast track and maybe even a 'clip' of NW Florida before a second landfall further down the west shore?

[Chris.R]

What is it with Jeff and animals today; he's just had a close shave with a hawk now! 

[knocker]

[BurntFishTrousers]

A wobble or a turn ?

http://www.wjhg.com/templates/2015_Fullscreen_Radar

[cheese]

Yes, looks like it could be making the north turn now.. would put it east of current forecast track if so.

[SnowBear]

Looking at the latest rainbow loop it looks like a sharp turn tbh. Next sequence will confirm. If it is a turn then it won't be West Florida in my opinion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-animated.gif

Edited September 9, 2017 by SnowBear
Correction

[BurntFishTrousers]

Note how Jose has grown on that loop.

[crimsone]

2 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

Looking at the latest rgb loop it looks like a sharp turn tbh. Next sequence will confirm. If it is a turn then it won't be West Florida in my opinion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-animated.gif

Yeah... Irma wasn't forecast to do that... in the current models. She was forecast to do that in earlier runs though. Can't dismiss it as a distinct possibility. Either way, she's pulled of the coast a little way sooner than expected, which can only give her time to get it together.

Rapid intensification ahead, I suspect.

[knocker]

28 minutes ago, cowdog said:

If memory serves the current sea temperatures ramp up around that point, so would explain the intensification. Wish I had saved the link to that chart.