Hurricane Irma

[crimsone]

6 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Can we please keep discussion to Irma, even if the potential carnage is on a vast and potentially tragic scale. 

Thankyou.

 

[phil nw.]

A further off topic post has been removed. Please pm if you wish to continue a personal exchange,this is not the platform for such an exchange. 

Thank you. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Isn't Florida mainly limestone and so quickly draining into the rock below? I think part of Miami's flooding at high tides comes not from 'breaches in defences but through the ground below ( water table?). If so 'inundation' is a threat as that is the expansion of a body of water? Excessive rainfall has to flood below ground before it then emerges at the surface?

[crimsone]

So, apparently it's increasingly looking like Fort Myers gets the hit... not that that matters entirely. Hurricane force winds still expand across half the width of the peninsula, and that's without the possibility of tornadoes on the feeders... or hurricane force gusts extending over the whole of the peninsula.

Edited September 9, 2017 by crimsone

[suffolkboy_]

4 minutes ago, crimsone said:

So, apparently it's increasingly looking like Fort Myers gets the hit... not that that matters entirely. Hurricane force winds still expand across half the width of the peninsula, and that's without the possibility of tornadoes on the feeders... or hurricane force gusts extending over the whole of the peninsula.

 

West of Ft Myers is Sanibel and Captiva islands.....I have visited there every year for many years (last there in March). It's like no other place in the US, no big franchises, bikes have priority over cars, and over half of it is nature reserve. Much of it is only just above sea level. I fear that its going to be almost wiped off the map.

[Had Worse]

7 minutes ago, suffolkboy_ said:

 

West of Ft Myers is Sanibel and Captiva islands.....I have visited there every year for many years (last there in March). It's like no other place in the US, no big franchises, bikes have priority over cars, and over half of it is nature reserve. Much of it is only just above sea level. I fear that its going to be almost wiped off the map.

https://www.islandinnsanibel.com/sanibel-island-beach-cam/?utm_source=SanCapChamber&utm_campaign=SanCapChamber&utm_medium=referral

https://sanibel-captiva.org/sanibel-island-webcams/

https://www.pinkshell.com/resort/webcam?utm_source=SanCapChamber&utm_campaign=SanCapChamber&utm_medium=referral.

Fort Myers the last link posted lookls strangely flat, is it because of the off shore wind flattening the waves?

Edited September 9, 2017 by Had Worse

[crimsone]

Just on the off-chance that anyone in Florida is looking, and because it gives us on the forum a clearer idea of it, these are the evacuation zones in effect.

http://floridadisaster.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=c788060028cb43809a25744ead39c0d6

[in the vale]

I spent a fortnight on Captiva a few years ago, just across the road from the Mucky Duck. Magical spot, I will be watching the Mucky Duck webcam (if available)with great sadness if the track and intensity continues as forecast.

[Had Worse]

14 minutes ago, in the vale said:

I spent a fortnight on Captiva a few years ago, just across the road from the Mucky Duck. Magical spot, I will be watching the Mucky Duck webcam (if available)with great sadness if the track and intensity continues as forecast.

I think Mucky Duck is broken, I checked a few minutes ago.

Edited September 9, 2017 by Polar Maritime
There's no getting round it.

[crimsone]

So, apparently it takes 2 weeks to take these cranes down... hence, they didn't. #Miami

 

[Iceberg]

Florida radar shows the still quite well organised Irma. 

[toggerob]

A bit of a messy overlay, but just a quick size-comparison as to how large Irma currently is if the center was over the Isle of Man.

 

 

[pip22]

One weather forecaster says Irma has 8 hrs to restenghen itself crossing the strait between Florida and Cuba.

Edited September 9, 2017 by pip22

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, pip22 said:

One weather forecaster says Irma has 8 hrs to restenghen itself crossing the strait between Florida and Cuba.

That's more than enough time unfortunately. How much has she weakened by, what cat is she now?

 

[crimsone]

There's something deeply foreboding about watching the terminator cross over Irma as day breaks.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=9646&y=10630&z=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=16&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Pixel]

6 minutes ago, crimsone said:

There's something deeply foreboding about watching the terminator cross over Irma as day breaks.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=9646&y=10630&z=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=16&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Seriously the best graphical representation I have ever seen... Thank you. It puts the scale of these hurricanes into perspective

[The PIT]

26 minutes ago, crimsone said:

So, apparently it takes 2 weeks to take these cranes down... hence, they didn't. #Miami

 

Well there's a good chance Imra will do it very rapidly. Looks beautiful from space doesn't it.

[crimsone]

They just got tornado warning sirens as I was watching The Weather Channel. 8 mile nw of Homestead airport, moving west at 50 mph. Dangerous storm near Shark Valley.

[crimsone]

000
WFUS52 KMFL 091323
TORMFL
FLC086-087-091415-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0017.170909T1323Z-170909T1415Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
923 AM EDT SAT SEP 9 2017

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Mainland Monroe County in southwestern Florida...
  West central Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 1015 AM EDT

* At 923 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 8 miles northwest of Homestead General Airport, moving
  west at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. 

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely. 

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Shark Valley Obs Tower around 935 AM EDT. 
  Big Cypress National Preserve around 950 AM EDT. 
  Loop Road Ee Center around 955 AM EDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building and avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2564 8054 2555 8056 2551 8105 2577 8102
TIME...MOT...LOC 1323Z 098DEG 43KT 2561 8060 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

Gregoria

[Havaturkali]

 

 

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, crimsone said:

They just got tornado warning sirens as I was watching The Weather Channel. 8 mile nw of Homestead airport, moving west at 50 mph. Dangerous storm near Shark Valley.

 Sounds terrofying. 

[pip22]

26 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

That's more than enough time unfortunately. How much has she weakened by, what cat is she now?

 

Its Cat 4 right now. Probably upto 130mph right now, earlier when it hits Cuba it was 155mph. But if it reaches Florida I think it could restrenghen to Cat 5 again with 150+ mph.

Edited September 9, 2017 by pip22

[alexisj9]

If its still cat 4 i'd expect so wayer is quite warm, not sure what the shear is, may keep it down. Lets see what happens.

[phil nw.]

The latest NAM run shows the approach of Irma towards Florida coast 

18hrs today

Into Sunday and by the evening latest projections show it moving north through the state,looks to have deepened on it's short hop from Cuba.

and finally 06hrs Monday

link.https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090906&fh=1

With that track and and still with  plenty of vigour it will cause widespread disruption/damage,a very concerning 2/3 days ahead.

[crimsone]

1 minute ago, phil nw. said:

The latest NAM run shows the approach of Irma towards Florida coast 

18hrs today

Into Sunday and by the evening latest projections show it moving north through the state,looks to have deepened on it's short hop from Cuba.

and finally 06hrs Monday

link.https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090906&fh=1

With that track and and still with  plenty of vigour it will cause widespread disruption/damage,a very concerning 2/3 days ahead.

That's some mighty RI in that model!