Hurricane Irma

[chillyblast]

1 hour ago, crimsone said:

Anybody standing on the Keys despite the warnings will be swimming just off the Keys shortly after.

...and anybody "riding this out" in a boat / yacht? (for which there was at least one on CNN)

[Polar Maritime]

Live webcam from Key West, Should make for interesting viewing later.

[chillyblast]

2 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Live webcam from Key West, Should make for interesting viewing later.

Should be interesting viewing for the guy taking a leisurely stroll down the peer too.

[Iceberg]

Deeper convection has now wrapped around the eye closing it off. It should prevent any more pressure release. 

[Barbmac]

Marathon on the Florida Keys, another good webcam to watch once it gets light, it's already raining there:

 

[Barbmac]

Key West seaport cam:

and Two Friends Roof, Key West

 

[crimsone]

So... just to be clear, because I'm still finding it hard to believe and need to hear someone else say it, what are we expecting to see on these cams, surge wise? (If they survive that long)

Because an overwash of the Keys is a bit too terrible to want to believe it.

Edited September 9, 2017 by crimsone

[Mokidugway]

29 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Live webcam from Key West, Should make for interesting viewing later.

Good web cam ,great bars in key west too 

[Had Worse]

34 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Live webcam from Key West, Should make for interesting viewing later.

And when the cock crows three times... or more, You will have betrayed the models and set foot into the gulf

[crimsone]

I still can't believe that people plan to shoot at it...

... or that some people reckon that enough flamethrowers might dissipate it before their very eyes... as though throwing heat at a heat engine is nothing at all like throwing fuel on a fire.

Darwin awards incoming!

Edited September 9, 2017 by crimsone

[Summer Sun]

 

[4wd]

15 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Because an overwash of the Keys is a bit too terrible to want to believe it.

It's nothing new for that to happen, those who build there know the risks.
They know the advantages too and even if it were swept clean would build there again.

[toggerob]

Tornado watch for the feeder-band coming into Miami currently

[Summer Sun]

 

[wellington boot]

I'm going to come out and say what everyone's thinking. Keep it together Irma!

I know this is going to cause destruction, and I sincerely hope people follow instructions and evacuate or otherwise protect themselves, but we've come too far for her to fizzle into Florida as a cat3 or anything less than cat4 minimum. So it's time to get out of Cuba, where they could really do without this, and to head north and put Florida's infrastructure to the test...

[Alpine glow]

1 minute ago, wellington boot said:

I'm going to come out and say what everyone's thinking. Keep it together Irma!

I know this is going to cause destruction, and I sincerely hope people follow instructions and evacuate or otherwise protect themselves, but we've come too far for her to fizzle into Florida as a cat3 or anything less than cat4 minimum. So it's time to get out of Cuba, where they could really do without this, and to head north and put Florida's infrastructure to the test...

All of the above.. with the added caveat of all humans, animals stay safe.  I always have to add that last bit in for my more sensitive friends that see me as a Mistress of Chaos. Come on Irma! 

[Badgers01]

33 minutes ago, crimsone said:

So... just to be clear, because I'm still finding it hard to believe and need to hear someone else say it, what are we expecting to see on these cams, surge wise? (If they survive that long)

Because an overwash of the Keys is a bit too terrible to want to believe it.

there are certainly worse things that could happen , the keys is no stranger to bad weather it is a very resilient community - the building on the ground floor are all open designed to let the water in and out !! - bit like how they build them in parts of cumbria now !!

 

[Mokidugway]

1 hour ago, Barbmac said:

Marathon on the Florida Keys, another good webcam to watch once it gets light, it's already raining there:

 

If only my fishing partner looked like that 

[Daniel*]

22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

That’s what was to be expected still a major hurricane but still weakening so I think it’ll bottom out at category 2 before intensifying as it pulls north. What concerns me with the shift of emphasis going westwards those who have evacuated in the east well it appears they’re dodging a bullet, happy Miami and those to the west are being more caught off guard - who knows Irma could end up in the Gulf..

 

[crimsone]

On CNN just now, Ed Rappaport, Deputy director of the NHC...

Anchor: "Ed, we have been speaking to people who have been saying that they're going to ride it out in the keys, and if you could just speak to those people now, what do you say to them?"

Ed: " Uh. I'm not sure that they'll make it. We're talking about a 5-10 foot storm surge on islands that are only 5 to 10 feet high, and if it was just that, that's a risk as it is... but we have waves on top of that. Perhaps 15 foot waves, [or] even higher, ~along with~ hurricane force winds. It's very risky to be out there at this point and I would advise everyone who is left to get out now while they can."

[Iceberg]

Irma is already clearly intensifying again. 

Now And about an he ago. 

[Singularity]

Interaction with Cuba has taken out the large outer eyewall that was periodically competing with the inner one and causing fluctuations in intensity similar to what EWRCs would bring but more frequently. 

My concern now is that the freed up, tighter inner eye may be able to respond more rapidly to improved oceanic heat input than the old larger eye would have been. That the small eye has managed to stay just offshore increases the probability of this.

If it happens, a relatively small but significant region will be under threat from a cat 4 or 5 landfall impact while the broader storm may have winds more akin to a cat 1 or 2 following the degradation of structure this morning. 

With or without an intense eye, though, the storm surge will still be very extensive and of cat 5 magnitude due to the inertia of water-buildup brought about by Irmas prolonged period spent in a very deep and intense state. So this remains the primary concern as others have been pointing out.

[MattStoke]

In the UK, an inch of rain often leads to localised flooding. 12+ inches expected across Florida, yet all talk seems to be flooding from storm surges and strong winds, and comparatively little talk about flooding from rainfall. I mean, that is a hell of a lot of rain! Surely going to cause damage even across areas not affected by strong winds or storm surge? 

[Captain Shortwave]

Can we please keep discussion to Irma, even if the potential carnage is on a vast and potentially tragic scale. 

Thankyou.

[A.J]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

In the UK, an inch of rain often leads to localised flooding. 12+ inches expected across Florida, yet all talk seems to be flooding from storm surges and strong winds, and comparatively little talk about flooding from rainfall. I mean, that is a hell of a lot of rain! Surely going to cause damage even across areas not affected by strong winds or storm surge? 

good post Matt, it puts things into perspective.....1 inch in 12 hours here is a real soaker, so the thought of 1ft + of rain in a shorter time period and the potential damage caused, is almost unimaginable to me