Hurricane Irma

[Barking_Mad]

Tampa Bay storm surge risk. From 2016. 

"With a Category 3 hurricane or stronger, "you could very well see 25 feet of water where we are right now in downtown Tampa," said Brian LaMarre, meteorologist-in-charge of the National Weather Service for the Tampa Bay area."

 

http://www.tampabay.com/news/storm-surge-perils-455000-homes-in-tampa-bay-report-says/2279809

Edited September 9, 2017 by Barking_Mad
Added quote

[Iceberg]

24 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm sorry I'm not following that. This seems to agree with the ecm

This is the current position and this is the higher res ec the centre is clearly over land on the ec and quite a bit faster. 

[Man With Beard]

29 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Those Cuban islands are heavily touristed, loads of hotels.  

Massive damage a certainty.

Shows how tough it is to predict these hurricanes. Cuba had been a little forgotten, now it's getting the full Monty while some on the east side of Florida might end up wondering what the fuss was about. 

[bluearmy]

Based on GMT timings, the ecm 00z run had the eye running up the coast rather then the islands and then coming inland over Cuba this just post noon before heading back out to sea around midnight. the difference between this occurring on the model run and the eye staying just offshore must surely be notable re the strength of the system as it begins to encounter the  very warm SST in the Florida straits. GFS op held if just off the coast which looks closer to where we currently sit. Small margins.

[Iceberg]

Sorry needed to throw the kids of the laptop, but this might help, ec with red dot where the current position is.

[Man With Beard]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Based on GMT timings, the ecm 00z run had the eye running up the coast rather then the islands and then coming inland over Cuba this just post noon before heading back out to sea around midnight. the difference between this occurring on the model run and the eye staying just offshore must surely be notable re the strength of the system as it begins to encounter the  very warm SST in the Florida straits. GFS op held if just off the coast which looks closer to where we currently sit. Small margins.

So the question is ... if it's already cat 5, and it doesn't make a proper landfall on Cuba ... just how much stronger could this thing get?

[Iceberg]

Irma has sped up a lot in the last 15-20 mins but is now almost north of any islands. 

[knocker]

And the HWRF has it here and then

Edited September 9, 2017 by knocker

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

And the HWRF has it here and then

That's noted knocks but given the visit to the north shores of Cuba wasn't well predicted only yesterday , assuming that the tampa landfall would have been the same on the ec op without the traverse of Cuban mainland is a step to take.

those at the NHC must be pretty concerned to have this chucked into their bin this late on - watching the weather channel it seems that the storm surge is getting a lot more attention than the winds - the storm surge being nigh on guaranteed to be a story around the Florida coastline whaereas presicting the winds away from the keys seems precarious 

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That's noted knocks but given the visit to the north shores of Cuba wasn't well predicted only yesterday , assuming that the tampa landfall would have been the same on the ec op without the traverse of Cuban mainland is a step to take.

those at the NHC must be pretty concerned to have this chucked into their bin this late on - watching the weather channel it seems that the storm surge is getting a lot more attention than the winds - the storm surge being nigh on guaranteed to be a story around the Florida coastline whaereas presicting the winds away from the keys seems precarious 

Indeed blue I quite agree. I mentioned the storm surge being a major concern two or three days ago given the coastal terrain and the storm surge map for Florida.

http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1

[crimsone]

9 minutes ago, knocker said:

Indeed blue I quite agree. I mentioned the storm surge being a major concern two or three days ago given the coastal terrain and the storm surge map for Florida.

http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1

Anybody standing on the Keys despite the warnings will be swimming just off the Keys shortly after.

[Iceberg]

As expected she is weakening probably a cat 3 now. The eye is also filling out. 

This is expected though !

[Iceberg]

It could be just a wobble but Irma has taken another turn northwards, partially in response to the decaying eye which is trying to cling on and tighten.  Bands are moving east to west though under the eye as this happens. 

Due to the wobble she is now north of the islands. 

 

[crimsone]

Is it just me, or has she almost opened her eye to the outside world here? (0900z)

Edited September 9, 2017 by crimsone

[karyo]

The 6z GFS has a slight shift further west than the previous run.

[Had Worse]

Looks that way. I would need a zoom function to confirm

[knocker]

[Iceberg]

The eye is very exposed however the convection is just starting to expand again to the east. 

06z a carbon copy of the 0z pretty much. A touch slower. 

[Iceberg]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

So 65-75 kts north Miami and about 85ish for the south?

gusts 10-20% higher ?

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

So 65-75 kts north Miami and about 85ish for the south?

gusts 10-20% higher ?

It's always difficult to quantify gusts I feel but some must be well over 100kts.

[The PIT]

Shear is also expected to come into play later so how much affect this will have is uncertain at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised if the track also was adjusted further west again but that all depends on how the high to the north behaves as well as the trough.

[pip22]

Irma is now a Cat 4 storm.

[The PIT]

Jose is interesting as well this is looking like it will a circle in a few days and if this tracks further westward may come into play for the east coast of the states.

[Iceberg]

Just a small amount of movement away from mainland and the core is starting to recover on the west side. 

[Iceberg]

Recon have just gone thru 935ish