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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

They've just reached the eye. Or at least, what they thought was the eye before making a bit of a course correction. If last night is anything to go by, that'll be about 30 mins until a vortex message, but that was USAF and this mission is NOAA, so we'll see.

Meanwhile, as a second hurricane hunter is launched and makes its way into Irma, a third is currently entering into Jose, while to the west of the imge, a fourth Hurricane Hunter is entering Katia. DAMN that's a busy day for the recon teams!

 

Screen Shot 2017-09-08 at 12.13.07.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 hour ago, Nick F said:

NHC forecast discussion mentioning that Irma is undergoing an eyewall replacement. With it continuing to move over warm waters of 30C and weak shear, likely it only slightly weaken and will maintain as cat 4 before Florida landfall, risk it could strengthen again, hopefully not for the sake of northern Cuba, SE Bahamas and ultimately Florida in its path.

Some interesting facts about Irma tweeted yesterday:

 

I posted this earlier today

https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/09/Hurricane-Irma-Records.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

USAF just reaching the eye. 

On sat it seems to be clearing out a bit. Still fractionally open. But later today I can see some rapid intensification. 

We need to keep an eye on the pressure now. 

IMG_1225.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

USAF just reaching the eye. 

On sat it seems to be clearing out a bit. Still fractionally open. But later today I can see some rapid intensification. 

We need to keep an eye on the pressure now. 

IMG_1225.PNG

Indeed, Iceberg - an eye must be kept on Irma's centre!:D

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

When you're Mission 19 into Irma (11L), but you just figure you'll fly around it instead and hope nobody notices...

Screen Shot 2017-09-08 at 13.07.33.png

Mission 20, however, seems to have decided not to go back to base after all, and is taking a quick jaunt over Providenciales, where winds between 63 and 75 MpH are still blowing.

Edited by crimsone
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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

The UK military does a wonderful job not just in times of conflict, but in times of peace too.

 

 

Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
1 hour ago, wellington boot said:

Can you imagine Irma's intensity over 90C water?!

Such a  storm system has almost certainly happened in the past, the hypothetical beast called a hypercane with 500+ mph winds and surface pressure sub 700mb..... massive undersea volcanic effect or asteroid impact would be the cause  

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
18 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

The UK military does a wonderful job not just in times of conflict, but in times of peace too.

 

 

Shame that the British Government doesn't do an equally wonderful job of making sure preparations are well in place beforehand...

... if they did, the military and various aid workers and supplies could have been there yesterday.

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
2 hours ago, Polar Bear said:

wow... frightening ...can I use this photo on my FB post? No worries if not...

course you can. :)

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11 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Such a  storm system has almost certainly happened in the past, the hypothetical beast called a hypercane with 500+ mph winds and surface pressure sub 700mb..... massive undersea volcanic effect or asteroid impact would be the cause  

Dreadful thought almost self sustaining indefinitely  :shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
14 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Such a  storm system has almost certainly happened in the past, the hypothetical beast called a hypercane with 500+ mph winds and surface pressure sub 700mb..... massive undersea volcanic effect or asteroid impact would be the cause  

That's true aj, but so could large areas of 35C+ SSTs (which, I suspect, have also occurred in the past) be a cause?

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's true aj, but so could large areas of 35C+ SSTs (which, I suspect, have also occurred in the past) be a cause?

from research I've done in the past, such a hypothetical system was based on supercomputer simulations ran with local SST's raised to 50C, resulting in hypercane formation.....cloud tops in the eye wall would be progged to reach 20 miles up into the lower strat!...........worth a read up on Prof Kerry Emanuel MIT who is a a hurricane and climatology specialist who designed the simulations... https://emanuel.mit.edu/   and a link to his paper on hurricane/hypercane physics.. https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~aos718/basic dynamics/mpi.emanuel.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury
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Posted
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting weather
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
4 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

 

The guy above is suggesting that a breeze would kill numerous in the 1700's if I am reading that correctly,

Errr.... I think he was referring to cholera epidemics etc, caused by diarrhoea ("loose stools") wiping out thousands of people, not referring to light breezes that might knock your stool (or chair) over causing problems.......

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Posted
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting weather
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
45 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Such a  storm system has almost certainly happened in the past, the hypothetical beast called a hypercane with 500+ mph winds and surface pressure sub 700mb..... massive undersea volcanic effect or asteroid impact would be the cause  

I was wondering about the evolution of life with respect to massive hurricanes etc, and wondering if it was a selection pressure (if they were frequent enough) driving adaptations in body shape or possibly always caused catastrophic removal of populations.? Might there have been some species who were able to thrive in areas where winds were exceptionally high, that we might not have noticed in the fossil record? Or did life only emerge out of the oceans once the most massive cyclonic weather events had died back closer to what we see today? The ocean stays pretty constant, much safer that being up on land.

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
15 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

I was wondering about the evolution of life with respect to massive hurricanes etc, and wondering if it was a selection pressure (if they were frequent enough) driving adaptations in body shape or possibly always caused catastrophic removal of populations.? Might there have been some species who were able to thrive in areas where winds were exceptionally high, that we might not have noticed in the fossil record? Or did life only emerge out of the oceans once the most massive cyclonic weather events had died back closer to what we see today? The ocean stays pretty constant, much safer that being up on land.

Speaking as someone with a degree in the biological sciences, hell only knows... but they DO redistribute heat from the tropics to the poles, which is a pretty essential factor in the fact that the earth is habitable.

Edited by crimsone
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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
000
URNT12 KWBC 081349
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL112017
A. 08/13:20:45Z
B. 21 deg 47 min N
  074 deg 55 min W
C. NA
D. 104 kt
E. 232 deg 15 nm
F. 333 deg 124 kt
G. 234 deg 19 nm
H. 928 mb
I. 15 C / 2468 m
J. 20 C / 2454 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C40
N. 12345 / NA
O. 0.1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 2011A IRMA OB 21
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 150 KT 035 / 25 NM 13:27:02Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 000 / 00 KTS
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12 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Speaking as someone with a degree in the biological sciences, hell only knows... but they DO redistribute heat from the tropics to the poles, which is a pretty essential factor in the fact that the earth is habitable.

It's a shame we have heat flux ,our summers might be warmer :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow.
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
5 minutes ago, crimsone said:

000
URNT12 KWBC 081349
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL112017
A. 08/13:20:45Z
B. 21 deg 47 min N
  074 deg 55 min W
C. NA
D. 104 kt
E. 232 deg 15 nm
F. 333 deg 124 kt
G. 234 deg 19 nm
H. 928 mb
I. 15 C / 2468 m
J. 20 C / 2454 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C40
N. 12345 / NA
O. 0.1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 2011A IRMA OB 21
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 150 KT 035 / 25 NM 13:27:02Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 000 / 00 KTS

So, still 170mph winds.....

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
12 minutes ago, Barking_Mad said:

So, still 170mph winds.....

Are you sure? I'm not seeing those in the data. The highest I can find presently is 130.4 at the surface.

(There was a 172.6 mph wind at flight level, but it was contained within a suspect set of observations)

Edited by crimsone
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Posted
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but Rain!
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
12 minutes ago, Barking_Mad said:

So, still 170mph winds.....

 

edit: yeah max surface there is 124knts, I believe.

Edited by cowdog
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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
Just now, cowdog said:

Thats an increase it had dropped to 145kts.

It does appear that an absolutely massive new eye is forming. which would tie into the increasing speeds.

According to the latest VDM, it has a 40 mile wide closed eye.

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