Hurricane Irma

[crimsone]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

I agree. Just a very amateur forecast, but the SST's to the south of Florida will surely provide an additional boost to Irma as she approaches Florida and the Keys?

Vertical shear may be a factor.

[SMU]

18 minutes ago, chillyblast said:

Is this fantasy land?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090712&fh=66&xpos=0&ypos=0

873mb???????

Thats the NHC experimental model- certainly in with a shout with that value ---

The ave seems to be kicking around 900MB on landfall !

[chillyblast]

This just came up looks pretty bad now:

 

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, crimsone said:

Vertical shear may be a factor.

It would but I given what I've seen I don't believe shear is an issue until Irma get up towards northern Florida

[crimsone]

Oh god, please no.

[Allseasons-Si]

Jeff piotrowski just now is saying that he is staying for this hurricane

[Richard Fisher]

Not sure whether this has been posted on previous pages but ongoing live coverage of Irma here

http://wsvn.com/on-air-live-stream/

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Oh god, please no.

30 foot waves?

That doesn't mean size of surge directly, I don't think/hope.

[chillyblast]

All FB streams down now, just the YouTube stream left.

I think the SS was more like 40-45?

 

Edited September 7, 2017 by chillyblast

[LightningLover]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

30 foot waves?

That doesn't mean size of surge directly, I don't think/hope.

[crimsone]

Here's what it says about "significant wave height" rather than "swell wave height".

I don't know how accurate this modelled radar is, but by damn, I'm hoping it's off by a country mile.

 

Edited September 7, 2017 by crimsone

[Kawaii]

 

[Had Worse]

 

[Nick F]

12z ECMWF ensembles suggest there's no dodging a bullet for Florida 

 

[Hurricane Debby]

1 hour ago, Had Worse said:

Part 3

 

Total hats off to this guy xxxx

[Mapantz]

I  have been keeping an eye on these hurricanes via mobile, when I can. I have just caught up reading through this thread, and I want to say a thank you to all of you posting updates and charts.

[Nick F]

Jose now a major hurricane, upgraded to cat. 3 with 120mph winds, unfortunately it looks like it could affect Antigua and Barbuda on Saturday, before swinging away NW then N towards Bermuda, by which time it may have weakened a fair bit. 

[Hurricane Debby]

9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I  have been keeping an eye on these hurricanes via mobile, when I can. I have just caught up reading through this thread, and I want to say a thank you to all of you posting updates and charts.

Ditto xxx

[crimsone]

Recon just getting to the CDO now. Info from the SE eye coming "soon".

[Gael_Force]

49 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Here's what it says about "significant wave height" rather than "swell wave height".

I don't know how accurate this modelled radar is, but by damn, I'm hoping it's off by a country mile.

 

I think it is based on the GFS model. The ECM has the same figures.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/bahamas/sign-wave-height-direction-ft/20170908-0000z.html

[crimsone]

Just now, Gael_Force said:

I think it is based on the GFS model. The ECM has the same figures.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/bahamas/sign-wave-height-direction-ft/20170908-0000z.html

Indeed.

Seems sufficient to overwash one or two of these islands with quite some force.

[crimsone]

Location of the eye (117mph winds found on the way in):

 

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, crimsone said:

Location of the eye (117mph winds found on the way in):

 

that's weakened a lot, which is a good thing, or am I misunderstanding.

[chillyblast]

still looks absolutely immense.

[crimsone]

... aaaand 158 mph wind found in the NW corner on the way back out.