Hurricane Irma

[Had Worse]

This is live although you need to refresh your browser to get it started again if it stops. 

He said that he will stop soon as its realy picking up.

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Nhc have updated as per their 10pm. 

The track has been shifted westwards and the official path of the hurricane is now just west of Miami with the eye passing over landfall just shy of cat 5. 

Then straight up Florida. 

A touch more effect over the Bahamas.  

Let's see if the 18z gfs also shows a shift westwards.

[pip22]

 

[Had Worse]

Part 3

 

[Kiwi]

36 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Still no success in contacting  my wifes uncle on Tortola ,as you would expect little or no communication available.

Where is he on Tortola?......we have friends in West End, no news from there either...but news of damage sustained in various areas via facebook video footage here https://www.facebook.com/lerose.charles 

[matt111]

This ones back up again.

 

[crimsone]

Here's some radar. It's kind of awesome.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=21.36%3B-70.60%3B8&l=gust

[chillyblast]

 

[summer blizzard]

NHC are forecasting Irma to make landfall as a weakening category 4.. but that relies on a gradual weakening between now and then. 

Miami likely to take the core.

[MattStoke]

GFS 18z is further west.

18z - 

12z - 

[SMU]

GFS is now pretty much a carbon cooy of the ECM 12z

[Ice Day]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS 18z is further west.

18z - 

12z - 

Yes, looks like ECM is leading the way on this one.  There's no good news with this storm, but this track would be very bad for all of Florida, southern Florida taking a massive hit.

Edited September 7, 2017 by Ice Day

[Had Worse]

The ECM is setting the pace for accuracy, whats the UKMO track?

[summer blizzard]

GFS has Miami taking the northern and eastern eyewall. Catastrophic. 

Interestingly, it also has Irma strengthening upon landfall.

..

What a way for the US to break its 12 year streak.  

[MattStoke]

Pretty much a direct hit for Miami, as far as I can work out. In line with the ECM now - 

[summer blizzard]

1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

The ECM is setting the pace for accuracy, whats the UKMO track?

UKMO has remained a tad west of the Euro largely because it gets a bit closer to Cuba (later turn). In terms of accuracy with Irma at 5 days and within, the Euro (followed by UKMO) have been thrashing the GFS.

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

GFS has Miami taking the northern and eastern eyewall. Catastrophic. 

Interestingly, it also has Irma strengthening upon landfall.

..

What a way for the US to break its 12 year streak.  

Yes, The Weather Channel just reporting that Miami is forecast to receive 140mph winds on Sunday morning.  

[crimsone]

Recon aircraft AF309 now flying into the very southernmost of Irma's outer bands and on the way to investigate. Should get some more data soon.

[summer blizzard]

Just now, Ice Day said:

Yes, The Weather Channel just reporting that Miami is forecast to receive 140mph winds on Sunday morning.  

That's actually based on the NHC forecast which has Irma dropping 20mph between now and Saturday when it finally stops being a category 5 (it then drops a little more).

Given it's large, stable core i'm not so sure that it will be winding down in the next days. 

[chillyblast]

Edit not the place stated in the end!

 

Really picking up on the FB feed now though.

Edited September 7, 2017 by chillyblast

[cheese]

Latest NHC update has Irma as a Cat 4 upon landfall in South Florida. 

Still more shifts to come I'm sure but after Andrew they take no chances. 

Edited September 7, 2017 by cheese

[Allseasons-Si]

The gov.scott on live now

 

[Love Snow]

Great coverage from jeff for updates https://www.pscp.tv/w/bIBqLTFXTEVSZVBZTFJWamJ8MWpNS2dQRVhQbE1HTEUsPRucab1O0x_v5PfYS3Fqpz0YjcqemuLF0K2Kj4To

Edited September 7, 2017 by Love Snow

[chillyblast]

Is this fantasy land?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090712&fh=66&xpos=0&ypos=0

873mb???????

[Ice Day]

12 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

That's actually based on the NHC forecast which has Irma dropping 20mph between now and Saturday when it finally stops being a category 5 (it then drops a little more).

Given it's large, stable core i'm not so sure that it will be winding down in the next days. 

I agree. Just a very amateur forecast, but the SST's to the south of Florida will surely provide an additional boost to Irma as she approaches Florida and the Keys?