Hurricane Irma

[Iceberg]

Land interaction with dr is limiting convection in the nw quad. The eye and convective angryness is managing to stop that being a problem at present but it's probably preventing an erc. 

As Irma starts to move away conditions for Irma should improve particularly over the next 6-12 hrs and beyond until Cuba then becomes a factor. 

[Gael_Force]

31 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Interestingly the NHC is going with ECM, the middle ground, although whether there is an element of "politics" in that decision in that by keeping the centre track on hitting Florida it will focus minds on evacuation and preparedness Im not sure

I'm not surprised ... there will be some very clenched buttocks with the latest ECM showing this!

[Had Worse]

https://www.periscope.tv/weCoach/1gqxvOXYrpwKB

 

Live now from Florida. Canaveral.  Hes hoping to broadcast as much as possible.

 

This is the pre hurricane shoot.

[crimsone]

FWIW, the storm surge over the Turks and Caicos should be higher than previously seen in the leeward islands. Much bigger. Florida still feels miles away when you consider the impact of that.

[Iceberg]

I am hoping that we can start to have some accurate forecasts ft Florida maybe in 24 hrs. 

We can start to find out which quads are likely to hit which areas possible storm surges etc. 

[Fiona Robertson]

1 hour ago, FetchCB said:

https://twitter.com/Justice97133?lang=en

Thank you so much for that. I've been worried sick about Hector!

[knocker]

[chillyblast]

Still producing 172.6mph winds, what is the potential for this to increase again if ERC becomes a factor? allegedly ERC will occur time and time again on its path so it could just be a blip? at the same time its maintained 185 for so long it had to weaken at some point!

Is there any possibility of a merge between the storm close to Mexico and this one?

[FetchCB]

9 minutes ago, knocker said:

Am I reading that right 165 kt - 190mph ? with a central pressure of 899mb!!

only 20mb above Wilma in 2005

[knocker]

1 minute ago, FetchCB said:

Am I reading that right 165 kt - 190mph ? with a central pressure of 899mb!!

only 20mb above Wilma in 2005

Don't forget the wind is for 900mb

[crimsone]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Don't forget the wind is for 900mb

to be fair, at 898mb in the center, 900mb is basically surface level.

[Polar Bear]

Whilst beautiful on the Ventusky site, you cant help but feel shock and sadness of what Irma is doing on the ground....

Clearly you can see Jose hot on the tails of Irma....but what is out there behind Jose?...seems to be a low developing or something and I suspect most of you are already on this, but am not up to speed...

[knocker]

10 minutes ago, crimsone said:

to be fair, at 898mb in the center, 900mb is basically surface level.

A good point and I'm not actually sure how to interpret that or even what it represents as the 10 meter chart only shows 126kts

[tornado tams]

15 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

Whilst beautiful on the Ventusky site, you cant help but feel shock and sadness of what Irma is doing on the ground....

Clearly you can see Jose hot on the tails of Irma....but what is out there behind Jose?...seems to be a low developing or something and I suspect most of you are already on this, but am not up to speed...

I know a few of trump's properties are in the line of fire with Irma , I'd like her to leave them be just for Jose.

[MattTarrant]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

A good point and I'm not actually sure how to interpret that or even what it represents as the 10 meter chart only shows 126kts

I assume 900mb is a fixed point based on altitude change from an average pressure at sea level. Conversion tables should be used to convert to height. Otherwise we would always be trying to calculate what that chart is showing for every different type of low pressure system. 

[Polar Bear]

interesting piece here about the model predictions.. " Predicting Irma’s Path Is Giving Supercomputers a Challenge" and it seems the ECMWF comes out positively and "Britain’s UKMET system is known for accuracy derived, like the European system, from high-powered 4D modelling"

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/hurricane-irma/predicting-irma-s-path-giving-supercomputers-challenge-n798961

 

 

 

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

I assume 900mb is a fixed point based on altitude change from an average pressure at sea level. Conversion tables should be used to convert to height. Otherwise we would always be trying to calculate what that chart is showing for every different type of low pressure system. 

Yes I thought that but then why not have a 900m level?

Edited September 7, 2017 by knocker

[Polar Bear]

9 minutes ago, tornado tams said:

I know a few of trump's properties are in the line of fire with Irma , I'd like her to leave them be just for Jose.

good point because otherwise his properties "would have the biggest destruction, by the biggest hurricane, which is thousands time bigger than the biggest hurricane ever, in the world, ever" ...

 

[MattTarrant]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Yes I thought that but then why not have a 900m level?

Because that would be logically sensible... 

[tornado tams]

8 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

good point because otherwise his properties "would have the biggest destruction, by the biggest hurricane, which is thousands time bigger than the biggest hurricane ever, in the world, ever" ...

 

also the being buggered by a Mexican

[Dancerwithwings]

Anybody wondering the time line for the arrival of where and when IRMA will land, Probabilities of course.

 

 

Edited September 7, 2017 by Dancerwithwings

[joggs]

Learner here.What does erc mean?.

Also I understand warmer waters and cooler clouds fuel it and moving over land weakens it.

What other basics come into play.Thanks for any replies and patience. 

[FetchCB]

44 minutes ago, knocker said:

A good point and I'm not actually sure how to interpret that or even what it represents as the 10 meter chart only shows 126kts

Although its "only"  126 knots, based on this research back in 2000 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutwindprofile.shtml

and the fact that there are a number of buildings in Miami that are 200m high the tops of the building will be experiencing 180mph winds - Cat5

Ominously this article states that building regs are built to 175mph

http://www.miami.com/miami-news/should-you-ride-out-a-hurricane-in-a-high-rise-170895/

"

The cooling tower atop high-rises is the thing that keeps the AC running throughout the building. In the case of a hurricane, the unit’s breakers will be shut off for safety, so get ready to sweat.

At least you don’t have to worry about the tower getting blown off the roof. According to Jose Carmero, building director for the City of Miami, cooling towers are built to sustain winds of 175 mph, just like the rest of the building.

“They are secure,” Carmero says. “I’d only worry about them if we had a storm that had 200 mph winds. In that case, I’m not so sure.”

 

 

 

[FetchCB]

5 minutes ago, joggs said:

Learner here.What does erc mean?.

Also I understand warmer waters and cooler clouds fuel it and moving over land weakens it.

What other basics come into play.Thanks for any replies and patience. 

Eyewall Replacement Cycle

[cowdog]

Interesting the UKMET's run shows that even though it takes it over Cuba it doesn't really lose any power and if anything gains it even more so than the GFS, as appears to get 2 bursts of rapid intensification - once when its right on the coast of Cuba and then on the bit between Cuba and Florida. It could end up being a more damaging storm by following that path, which seems slightly bizarre given the 150 mile + detour over land.