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1 hour ago, Singularity said:

Not exactly on the way there, but I get what you mean by where it ends up;

bf9789579ddbc5ee8d124f1ebff1638bac612d9f

It does look pretty 'circumstantial' though; the trough-ridge sequence has to be just-so for such a loop to take place.

Yes also look at the 240

IMG_9269.thumb.PNG.9dbcbcc5e3f91387bfb31c1608a1665d.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Worth saying that within 5 days the Euro actually beats the consensus models in verification closely followed by the UKMO and with the GFS a bit behind (the Euro ensemble mean is apparently even better). 

This would strongly suggest a hit. 

In this morning's modelling the Euro actually was a tad north.. but it moved the trough to the north east out faster. That seems to be the important feature here. 

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Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder / lightning, Freezing rain, snow, ice and blizzards!
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL

Looking at the latest Irma recon, winds still at 185mph and pressure 909.1mb?

If this is correct then this storm has now sustained winds of >185mph for over 40 hours absolutely annihilating the previous 18 hour record.

 

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
22 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes also look at the 240

IMG_9269.thumb.PNG.9dbcbcc5e3f91387bfb31c1608a1665d.PNG

The NE quadrant must be strong, Florid has been skewed 90 degrees

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

https://www.windy.com/?2017-09-11-00,22.004,-68.467,5

 

What model are they using to show wind paths?

 

I note that from next Tuesday, there seems to be yet another development coming from the Cape Verde side and spinning up.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
4 minutes ago, chillyblast said:

Looking at the latest Irma recon, winds still at 185mph and pressure 909.1mb?

If this is correct then this storm has now sustained winds of >185mph for over 40 hours absolutely annihilating the previous 18 hour record.

 

Nhc updated at 10am and confirmed the winds had reduced and that the current 155kts might be generous. They have pressure at 920mb, it's probably a little lower. 

Since the 10am update though Irma has suddenly turned nasty.  Cloud tops have cooled conisderablu and t number s have increased dramatically to 7.4. 

The eye itself is clearly no Longer circular and has taken on an uneven shape. The eye wall is pushing under stress which might be a precursor to a collapse or reinforcement only time will tell 

IMG_1200.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
9 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

https://www.windy.com/?2017-09-11-00,22.004,-68.467,5

 

What model are they using to show wind paths?

 

I note that from next Tuesday, there seems to be yet another development coming from the Cape Verde side and spinning up.

Depends on which button you push in the bottom right.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Another near miss for Miami on the GFS 6z, but it's too close to call. And no landfall at Miami just means bigger problems for the Carolinas later on.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
49 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes also look at the 240

IMG_9269.thumb.PNG.9dbcbcc5e3f91387bfb31c1608a1665d.PNG

Off-topic, but Meteociel has a North American chart for the ECM now too:

ECN1-240.GIF?07-12

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

Some footage of the aftermath posted about 90 minutes ago

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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
8 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Another near miss for Miami on the GFS 6z, but it's too close to call. And no landfall at Miami just means bigger problems for the Carolinas later on.

Near Miss from the core maybe but there will still be significant wave damage if the https://www.windy.com/?2017-09-11-00,22.004,-68.467,5 site is to be believed ..wave hieghts of 9m

 

This link shows the impact of storm surge has on the US

 

http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

OK, this is pretty damn pathetic here, and I feel pretty bad for asking, but it seems that I've accidentally managed to get my partner emotionally invested in a tree.

I've read reports that Hector survived, albeit badly damaged. Can anyone confirm?

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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
3 minutes ago, crimsone said:

OK, this is pretty damn pathetic here, and I feel pretty bad for asking, but it seems that I've accidentally managed to get my partner emotionally invested in a tree.

I've read reports that Hector survived, albeit badly damaged. Can anyone confirm?

https://twitter.com/Justice97133?lang=en

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
4 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Cheers. That's much appreciated.

I'll be honest.... never envisaged myself being in the position of having this conversation!

https://twitter.com/hashtag/HectorTheTree?src=hash&lang=en

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

Live from Puerto Rico

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
38 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Live from Puerto Rico

wow that pretty lively considering it's nowhere near the eye, I think the storm went north of here right?

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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives

Interestingly the NHC is going with ECM, the middle ground, although whether there is an element of "politics" in that decision in that by keeping the centre track on hitting Florida it will focus minds on evacuation and preparedness Im not sure

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
11 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Interestingly the NHC is going with ECM, the middle ground, although whether there is an element of "politics" in that decision in that by keeping the centre track on hitting Florida it will focus minds on evacuation and preparedness Im not sure

Probably, as people really don't realise how bad storm surges can be till it's to late. Whether they get the eye or not, storm surge will be a problem.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Recon have just passed through se to nw. Pressure of 920mb and surface winds of 150kt in the nw quad so 155kt max seems about right bang on the nhc prediction. 

It still means hardly any weakening. Just a touch ft his morning. Since then she's is just holding steady 

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

From a recent watching of the Weather Channel (haven't looked myself), there's the potential of interaction with a developing low N-W of Florida, causing it to strike miami, but then recurve back northward, keeping it on land over Florida and up into the US.

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