Hurricane Irma

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Iceberg said:

Normally 15k ft. 

I was reading the table posted above, third column from left "Acrft Geo Height"

 

[crimsone]

1 minute ago, Love Snow said:

Jesus the strongest hurricane ever?

No... that's still Wilma in 2005, at 882 mb
Or Allen, in 1980, with 190 mph sustained winds...

... depending on which way you want top look at strength.

Still - Irma definitely has potential at this point.

[cowdog]

170 mph surface winds means already and with it to go near lots of heat sources means this probably has a good shot of getting over 200 mph on the surface.

This has the potential to be the storm people have feared about.

[Had Worse]

If it gets into the Gulf, it will have a super fuel supply

[Iceberg]

1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

I was reading the table posted above, third column from left "Acrft Geo Height"

 

Yes. Sorry I was reading from the mission guide which actually says Sfc to 15000. Trying to do too much. 

Some flights are at 45000 for upper air sounding but obviously not this one

[cowdog]

Officially now a Category 5, and NOAA are saying 175 mph sustained winds.

[Had Worse]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/051159.shtml?

[Zephyr]

Force 13 live stream is up if anyone is interested,

 

[toggerob]

Just mentioning on F13 chat that Haiyan reached 195mph, Irma is now 175mph and the warmest waters are still west towards FL.

[Cleeve Hill]

In Antigua, so far we've had some showers from the outer rain bands, but right now it is sunny and the usual 33c. Businesses are largely closed and the roads quiet for a working Tuesday. queues at the cash points (in the event of the electric dropping out). 

Antigua is 17.07 degrees north and Irma has dropped from 16.7 to 16.6 overnight and if it starts to move WNW which if forecast this would be a direct hit. Still Cat 4 but we can see it becoming Cat 5 soon. 

We are hoping it will turn sooner rather than later and miss to the North. The Hurricane force winds are only 45 miles from the centre with strongest winds in its North side, so we could get lucky but then again......  

[Barking_Mad]

30 minutes ago, crimsone said:

No... that's still Wilma in 2005, at 882 mb
Or Allen, in 1980, with 190 mph sustained winds...

... depending on which way you want top look at strength.

Still - Irma definitely has potential at this point.

Yeah. A gust from Rita touched 235mph apparently. Camille had sustained winds of 200mph at one point and a single gust of 235mph So strong it broke the instrument measuring it. 

Edited September 5, 2017 by Barking_Mad

[Iceberg]

Lots of recon ATM. Currently in the nw quad which should be weaker an amazing display of flight winds really quite expansive. 

[Ice Day]

13 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Just mentioning on F13 chat that Haiyan reached 195mph, Irma is now 175mph and the warmest waters are still west towards FL.

Yes, this is really concerning and the fear is if it makes the gulf the super warm waters could intensify it further. Just supposition on my part but not looking good. 

[Cleeve Hill]

The last Cat 4 to hit Antigua was Lenny in 1995 causing EC $315M damage. 

[crimsone]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Yes, this is really concerning and the fear is if it makes the gulf the super warm waters could intensify it further. Just supposition on my part but not looking good. 

Not really seeing much by the way of "super" warm waters in the Gulf at the moment. There's a couple of small patches here and there with 30-32 degree SSTs (including one just south of Florida), but the charts currently say it's mostly in the 28-30 degree range.

http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp4.htm

[Had Worse]

5 minutes ago, Cleeve Hill said:

The last Cat 4 to hit Antigua was Lenny in 1995 causing EC $315M damage. 

I won a holiday to go there on the radio in 1995 and we ended up going to St Lucia due to the devastation.

[Ice Day]

3 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Not really seeing much by the way of "super" warm waters in the Gulf at the moment. There's a couple of small patches here and there with 30-32 degree SSTs (including one just south of Florida), but the charts currently say it's mostly in the 28-30 degree range.

http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp4.htm

Which is a slight relief although SST'S at 28-30 would certainly be enough to maintain storm strength. 

[Iceberg]

Cat 5 winds in the nw quad as well as the ne which in itself it quite unusual. 145kt surface....nw quad....speechless. 

Irma needs to start turning north of west NOW otherwise the strongest winds will be in the islands. 

Edited September 5, 2017 by Iceberg

[Had Worse]

5 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Not really seeing much by the way of "super" warm waters in the Gulf at the moment. There's a couple of small patches here and there with 30-32 degree SSTs (including one just south of Florida), but the charts currently say it's mostly in the 28-30 degree range.

http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp4.htm

The green to the East of Florida would suite Irma, subject to shear

[Iceberg]

The 30-31 between Florida and Cuba will be more than enough to go sub 900. Particularly given her relative speed.  IMO 

[Martin R Gibbons]

Hello, my godson is on holiday in the Dominican Republic,north east coast.Looks like he will be on it's southern flank hope Irma doesn't track any further south

[crimsone]

1 minute ago, Iceberg said:

The 30-31 between Florida and Cuba will be more than enough to go sub 900. Particularly given her relative speed.  IMO 

Possibly... though I suspect land interactions will be a weakening factor, and that pocket of higher SSTs will merely maintain her instead.

Time shall tell... foreboding, deadly, deadly time.

[Summer Sun]

Beeb saying 210mph wind gusts with sustained speeds of 175mph with a storm surge of 11ft

[Dancerwithwings]

I was wondering if a CAT 6 was possible... Does the (Saffir-Simpson Scale) need adjusting ?

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/category-6-hurricane-saffir-simpson-wind-scale

[Iceberg]

Current proximity to the islands. 

Eye is not in the best of shape ATM so further strengthening likely.