Hurricane Irma

[crimsone]

3 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

The first outer bands are wetting St Barth

 

I don't expect that camera to be operational come 7am Weds (BST), if that Island is where I think it is.

I'm not convinced those houses will look the same after, either.

 

[Had Worse]

4 minutes ago, crimsone said:

I don't expect that camera to be operational come 7am Weds (BST), if that Island is where I think it is.

I'm not convinced those houses will look the same after, either.

 

https://goo.gl/maps/oYgMTH3AJfB2

[Had Worse]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 050848
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

The cloud pattern on satellite is spectacular with a clear eye
surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. An Air Force plane
was in the eye of the hurricane a few hours ago and measured
surface winds of 126 kt with the SFMR. Since the plane left, the
cloud pattern has become even more impressive and objective
T-numbers have been oscillating around 7.0 on the Dvorak scale.
Based on the average of these estimates, the initial intensity
is adjusted upward to 130 kt.

The hurricane will be moving through an environment of low vertical
wind shear, a moist mid-level atmosphere, and increasing upper-ocean
heat content, and this is ideal for some additional intensification.
However, given that the SHIPS models do not show any significant
change in the intensity, the NHC forecast keeps Irma a powerful
hurricane through five days.

Recon and satellite fixes indicate that Irma is moving toward the
west or 270 degrees at 12 kt. The hurricane is moving around the
periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge, which in fact is quite
strong at this time. This persistent pattern should keep Irma on a
general westward track for the next 24 hours, with a west-northwest
track thereafter. The guidance envelope and many of the ensemble
members of the GFS and the ECMWF models have shifted slightly
westward since the previous run. The NHC forecast also shifted
slightly westward, and it is on top of the multi-model consensus.
The confidence in the forecast beyond 3 days is lower, since the
guidance spreads out more.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track,
especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors
are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands as a
dangerous major hurricane, accompanied by life-threatening wind,
storm surge, and rainfall impacts.  Hurricane warnings are in effect
for portions of the Leeward Islands.  Preparations should be rushed
to completion, as tropical-storm force winds are expected to first
arrive in the hurricane warning area later today.

2. Irma is also expected to affect the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane later this
week.  Hurricane warnings have been issued for these areas, and
tropical-storm-force winds could arrive in these areas by early
Wednesday.

3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the
Bahamas, and Cuba as a dangerous major hurricane later this week.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and
listen to advice given by officials.

4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in
the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this
weekend.  Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct
impacts Irma might have on the continental United States.  However,
everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 16.6N  57.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
12H  05/1800Z 17.0N  58.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
24H  06/0600Z 17.7N  61.5W  130 KT 150 MPH
36H  06/1800Z 18.6N  64.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
48H  07/0600Z 19.6N  67.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
72H  08/0600Z 21.2N  72.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
96H  09/0600Z 22.4N  77.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 24.0N  81.0W  115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
 

[Methuselah]

One thing's for sure: Irma will play havoc with Donald Trump's golf swing!

[crimsone]

11 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

https://goo.gl/maps/oYgMTH3AJfB2

Might just about escape the very worst of it then. Maybe.

Doesn't look good.

(Times = AST = BST-5)

Edited September 5, 2017 by crimsone

[toggerob]

Models changing overnight taking Irma even more westerly across FL, the jog to the north as the Hurricane leaves Cuba and passes across Key West is particularly concerning given how fragile the islands are to even CAT1/2 Hurricanes. NOAA predicting that the first tropical-strength winds from Irma will be arriving in southern FL around Friday Midday.

[Iceberg]

Cat 5 alert !!!!

recon have found 160+ kt flight winds and 150kt surface. 

If accepted this would make her the strongest cane for 10 years and a cat 5. 

Edited September 5, 2017 by Iceberg

[Had Worse]

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E+HURRICANE&lat=16&mapcolor=white&lon=-40&zoom=4&palette=ir7.pal&type=Animation&width=1000&height=1200

 

Is it me or does the eye take a step south on the latest frame?

[Iceberg]

She looks to be going through an erc as well which will spread those winds out and possibly help the pressure to get down to 900-910. 

[crimsone]

1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E+HURRICANE&lat=16&mapcolor=white&lon=-40&zoom=4&palette=ir7.pal&type=Animation&width=1000&height=1200

 

Is it me or does the eye take a step south on the latest frame?

I fancied it took a step north just beforehand.

Just a wobble, I think. They happen.

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, crimsone said:

I fancied it took a step north just beforehand.

Just a wobble, I think. They happen.

The view is changing on the St Bart you tube link. The sun to the East is slowly being obscured by Irma's vale

[MattTarrant]

3 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

She looks to be going through an erc as well which will spread those winds out and possibly help the pressure to get down to 900-910. 

Just extraordinary structure to Irma on the satellite. Is there a better weather phenomenon to look at than hurricanes of this power? 

[Zephyr]

CAT 5 from latest recon  NE eyewall

 

 

Edited September 5, 2017 by Zephyr

[Had Worse]

Oh boy, this will be devastating to the islands.

What with Harvey and potentially Irma, the Mexico wall fund pot will be empty.

[Iceberg]

Just heard that nhc will be making her a cat 5 in the next 30 mins. 

Its hard to express how massive and unusual this is. Not to mention how dangerous. 

Also worth saying that the models have consistantly underestimated her. 

[Had Worse]

St Barts web cam on youtube has the approaching vale that is blocking out the sun to the East.

Edited September 5, 2017 by Had Worse

[Iceberg]

Recon have officially confirms 171kts just shy of 200mph winds at flight level. 

[Had Worse]

Flight level being arounf 6500 ft?

[crimsone]

4 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Just heard that nhc will be making her a cat 5 in the next 30 mins. 

Its hard to express how massive and unusual this is. Not to mention how dangerous. 

Also worth saying that the models have consistantly underestimated her. 

... despite GFS registering her has hyper-intense?

[Iceberg]

Here's the official statement from nhc

NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane
Irma has intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum
winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts.  A special advisory
will be issued at 800 AM AST (1200 UTC) in lieu of the scheduled
intermediate advisory for Irma.

irma now has the same strength as Katrina as her strongest. 

[Had Worse]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 051147
TCUAT1

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
745 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...HURRICANE IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE...

NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane
Irma has intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum
winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts.  A special advisory
will be issued at 800 AM AST (1200 UTC) in lieu of the scheduled
intermediate advisory for Irma.


SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 57.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Landsea
 

[Iceberg]

2 minutes ago, crimsone said:

... despite GFS registering her has hyper-intense?

Yes. None of the models tropical or global, had Irma as a cat 5 this side of the leewards. 

[Love Snow]

Jesus the strongest hurricane ever?

[Iceberg]

4 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Flight level being arounf 6500 ft?

Normally 15k ft. 

[crimsone]

Just now, Iceberg said:

Yes. None of the models tropical or global, had Irma as a cat 5 this side of the leewards. 

Fair point.

Well...

... bloody hell.