Hurricane Irma

[summer blizzard]

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The Tropical Storm force windfield has pretty much doubled over 24 hours.

[Iceberg]

Well recon are in now. Currently in the sw quad right on the edge. Nothing as yet to report. 

[knocker]

 

[knocker]

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Latest GFS. Catastrophic about sums it up. These runs are getting scarier by the hour. 

[Iceberg]

Just for clarity that's an 894mb cat 5 hitting Miami and then travelling as a cat 4/5 all up the Florida east coast. 

[Stozzy]

Do you think my mate should be worried ? North coast of Dominican ?

[Had Worse]

I think he should be anxiously watching the forecast and make plans

[Darren Bown]

Arrived in Florida yesterday. No one seems tocbe talking about Irma currently, but certinaly watching quite anxiously ATM.

[Zephyr]

Latest GFS runs Irma in to Florida with land fall at Miami beach at +174 central pressure 884mb also the ECM seems to be stuck on +72 at the moment so no updates from the Euros currently.

 

[karyo]

The ECM is out up to 144 hours now. It also takes Irma on a more southerly track than earlier runs.

At 168 hours she hits southeast Florida as she starts to shift north.

And then to the Carolinas.

Edited September 4, 2017 by karyo

[SMU]

Model consensus this morning has moved the track further west - with the cone still extending into the eastern Gulf- However prime location at the moment is Southern Florida as the storm lifts northwards

ECM @ 144 is just south of Florida - expecting a hit around 168

UKMO is further south @144 with a possibility of the storm getting past into the Gulf-

The early fish forecasts look to be waining now-

S

[crimsone]

This intense Florida hit scenario was predicted by navgem about a day before any other model.

I wonder what navgem saw that GFS didn't?

[crimsone]

Interestingly, HWRF is going all out there, and suggesting a landfall on Cuba.

 

[Iceberg]

Ec has a Cuba hit as well and a travel up land. 

The hit in Miami is worrying. 

Also for DR its getting closer. 

Finally yet another Carolina hit   

As expected the ec fish scenario is not followed 

[karyo]

13 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Interestingly, HWRF is going all out there, and suggesting a landfall on Cuba.

 

This southern shift in the track is the worst scenario in my view. Cuba and Haiti will really struggle for years to come if they get hit. At least the states can recover quickly in comparison.

[Iceberg]

Irma looks good this morning. 

Recon is about to enter. 

[crimsone]

14 minutes ago, karyo said:

This southern shift in the track is the worst scenario in my view. Cuba and Haiti will really struggle for years to come if they get hit. At least the states can recover quickly in comparison.

The one saving grace of a Cuban landfall is that Cuba is actually a pretty mountainous little island, and they stand a good chance of ripping up Irma, reducing her strength.

Not especially good news for Cuba or Haiti, admittedly, but compared with a direct hit on the southern tip of Florida before heading right up past the panhandle...

... Wherever this thing goes, it's going to be a problem for someone. The worst cases for this storm somewhat remind me of the horror of realising what Katrina might be about to do. Not comparing the two here... just pointing out that there comes a point, when following the North Atlantic Hurricane season, where you have to be prepared to let your fascination with hurricanes mingle with the certainty of watching the oncoming cause of death for a lot of people.

Edited September 4, 2017 by crimsone

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, crimsone said:

The one saving grace of a Cuban landfall is that Cuba is actually a pretty mountainous little island, and they stand a good chance of ripping up Irma, reducing her strength.

Not especially good news for Cuba or Haiti, admittedly, but compared with a direct hit on the southern tip of Florida before heading right up past the panhandle...

... Wherever this thing goes, it's going to be a problem for someone. The worst cases for this storm somewhat remind me of the horror of realising what Katrina might be about to do. Not comparing the two here... just pointing out that there comes a point, when following the North Atlantic Hurricane season, where you have to be prepared to let your fascination with hurricanes mingle with the certainty of watching the oncoming cause of death for a lot of people.

The mountains can provide some shelter from the wind but they catch a lot of rain and landslides can occur so not necessarily a good thing. Floridians can evacuate days before the storm and they can get money from the government afterwards. Many of them are wealthy anyway.

[Zephyr]

Worrying for the Caribbean to be fair.  

 

 

[crimsone]

17 minutes ago, karyo said:

The mountains can provide some shelter from the wind but they catch a lot of rain and landslides can occur so not necessarily a good thing. Floridians can evacuate days before the storm and they can get money from the government afterwards. Many of them are wealthy anyway.

True enough, though according to some of the models you'd be talking about evacuating pretty much the whole State of Florida, which quite frankly is never going to happen.

My view was more in respect of what would happen if Irma managed to skip past the north of Cuba and were able to get through unscathed, however. On the broad scale of the HWRF prediction, high pressure building up over the US would look to stall it a little and pull it northwards, painting a landfall target (at this range) anywhere between, potentially, Houston and New Orleans - unlikely, perhaps, but stranger things have happened. If that were the outlook, I'd possibly be somewhat thankful for those Cuban mountains.

As it is, if it just comes close to Cuba before making for the Panhandle, with a stroke of luck we get the best of all worlds - reduced strength, minimal issues in Cuba, and a weakened hurricane in Florida. Alas, there's a good number of islands between Irma and Cuba though.

On the other hand, if it crosses Cuba, that could be morbidly interesting. Not just for Cuba, but for wherever it goes after. Looking at the models, I don't really see many welcome outcomes for this storm.

Edited September 4, 2017 by crimsone

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, crimsone said:

True enough, though according to some of the models you'd be talking about evacuating pretty much the whole State of Florida, which quite frankly is never going to happen.

My view was more in respect of what would happen if Irma managed to skip past the north of Cuba and were able to get through unscathed, however. On the broad scale of the HWRF prediction, high pressure building up over the US would look to stall it a little and pull it northwards, painting a landfall target (at this range) anywhere between, potentially, Houston and New Orleans - unlikely, perhaps, but stranger things have happned. If that were the outlook, I'd possibly be somewhat thankful for those Cuban mountains.

On the other hand, if it crosses Cuba, that could be morbidly interesting. Not just for Cuba, but for wherever it goes after. Looking at the models, I don't really see many welcome outcomes for this storm.

Yes, there has been a shift south and west so the Caribbean could come back on the menu so to speak. It is an evolving situation for sure.

[crimsone]

Speaking of threading the needle north of Cuba... there's HMON.

(small video added for archival purposes. Model presentation links go out of date pretty quickly, after all)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hmontc2.cgi?time=2017090400-irma11l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Irma HMON 0409.mov

[Iceberg]

Pressure down to 949mb in that run with 117kt ft winds. Significant strengthening. 

[Iceberg]

Vortex confirms a closed eye. Pressure 10mb less than the nhc estimate only an hr ago. 

Flight winds of 117kts easily allows for a 100k storm.

there was also a large section of sub 960 winds with all this in mind. Some intensification to sub 940mb is easily on the cards prior the leewards as is a move to a cat 4.