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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 hour ago, Cleeve Hill said:

Here in Antigua supermarkets were so busy yesterday and extra water bottles batteries etc on sale. Petrol stations also very busy (not just fuel but people filling containers of diesel for generators). The first thing to go here will be electricity so quite a lot of locals will have generators. 

Government has the utility company working 24 hours lopping trees over power lines (something they should do all year round , not 72 hours before a storm) , but that's Antigua for you.

the storm is looking more likely to effect us now than a couple of days ago and the longer it takes the south of west direction the greater the risk for the northern leeward islands, Antigua, st Kitts in the main. We all want the storm to start the recurve sooner rather than later.

if it does hit I fear for the local people, many of whom live in wooden homes that are not secured to the land, often just built on concrete blocks. Many properties are uninsured.  There is a lot of poverty here and the economy could not withstand this. The island is dependent upon tourism with the main season running Nov - April so there is little money around at present and any significant damage now would impact on the 17/18 season. 

Anyway fingers crossed it turns north soon. Hurricane shutters going up today ! 

Sounds terrible! I hope Irma tracks further north. 

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire

She seems to be recovering again now I guess it was down to taking in some drier air ?

 

rbtop_lalo-animated.gif

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
3 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

She seems to be recovering again now I guess it was down to taking in some drier air ?

 

rbtop_lalo-animated.gif

Just wondering if this is what an eye wall replacement looks like in this view. Has there been one?

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Posted
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold , snow . Hot sunny
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire

I have a friend going to the Dominican Republic north of punta Cana on the north coast . Seems to be trending further south west every run . Worrying 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

The consistency between runs and gfs and ecm had been notable for Irma recently. Gfs 12z is again following the script of a passage through the Bahamas before then turning north. 

The uncertainty as mentioned on here was always the trough, how quickly it lifted and deeply is dug. 

The models are pretty much now agreeing on this. A small offshoot of instability is left between the high in the Atlantic and the us continental high. 

Of interest to Irma is a finger ridge of high pressure shown below that pushes Irma more westerly over the Bahamas. This now pretty much occurs in the reliable timeframe. 

From this it's natural for Irma to then move northwards in the weakness upto the carolinas. 

Confidence on the track is increasing now. 

IMG_1139.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
51 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Just wondering if this is what an eye wall replacement looks like in this view. Has there been one?

I think shes been through a couple already but not 100%...

 

GFS has her down to 884mb at +150 surely has to be over doing these figures. 

gfs_mslp_wind_watl_26.png

 

Recon at 7pm tonight will be interesting 

Edited by Zephyr
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Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire

Looks like its going to make landfall at North Myrtle Beach at 910mb but there is still a lot of chopping and changing to come over the next week or so

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Posted
  • Location: Cliffe, NrRochester Kent
  • Location: Cliffe, NrRochester Kent

Will this interfere with the devestation Havey has caused. ?

Edited by Honey
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
16 minutes ago, Honey said:

Will this interfere with the devestation Havey has caused. ?

If it goes on the right path, possibly! But i'm not too sure how likely that is.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
25 minutes ago, Honey said:

Will this interfere with the devestation Havey has caused. ?

Unless there's a significant model shift, it's not likely.

It will likely stretch the resources of FEMA though if it makes landfall...

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

GEFS are strongly supportive of a hit on that south east coast and average cat 4. 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Euro has moved towards the UKMO in being further south within 6 days.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Interesting that the ecm has gone back to a pattern of a couple of days ago. It splits the main trough creating a cut off upper low in the north east which moves east and shifts the blocking HP to the north just as Irma approaches southern Florida. Thus at T168 it establishes a channel north and then NE up which Irma can travel and she duly obliges by tracking up the coast without hitting land. (Well brushes)

ecm_z500_anom_conus_9.thumb.png.6d1f7040c169ac60b7cae1b08f37b73d.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening , Looks like Irma will give some problems all the way from the Bahamas/Florida up to New York State . Yes a strong Hurricane given the gfs output , but the gfs smashes the hurricane into land and it dissolved very quickly as it get sucked up into the westerly jet....A long way off as this projection to hit land is a week away ,so lots of changes to come , but certainly interesting viewing , but Irma looks like a wind and stormsurge maker rather than rainfall problems unlike Harvey:hi:

irma.png

irmax.png

irmaxx.png

mindblown6.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and
Nevis.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Watch for
the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for St.
Martin and Saint Barthelemy.
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