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Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2017/18


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you used to be able to run a sequence for the last 30 days on the US National Ice Centre section the NOAA Website, but it's gone. So I've created a GIF of the last 7 days. I'll do one next week f

Absolutely love this thread. Certainly my favorite of the year. And for posterity, here is what we should be aiming for....

Well, it's that time of the year again, where we can all start turning our backs from summer, and start looking north and east towards the encroaching snows of Siberia.   Lets hope that this

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On 28/10/2017 at 08:00, bluearmy said:

Could be anecdotal but these charts show better coverage over the Canadian Arctic than last year aswell ? 

We could do with a clever bod showing beginning and end October comparisons for the last couple years and notable ones from the past decade too. 

 

 

Something like this?  This is just the previous 5 days from today for the last 3 years.  Also looked at 2009 and 2010 as well just for fun.  Can't say that this is in anyway meaningful.  I leave you to draw your own conclusions!

snow and ice comparison.pdf

Edited by Colin Hacker
good taste
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I have done a quick comparison between now and 2010.

cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

ims2010302_asiaeurope.gif

 

The ice looks around the same in total, the snow had spread a little further west in 2010 though.

If we compare to last year however, the ice difference is immense. I remember that big blob in 2016, I was so excited by it!!

ims2016303_asiaeurope.gif

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The same old doughnut every Autumn. Thing is this time last year the snow cover was pretty similar but the winter in the UK was rubbish, actually if anything there was more snow last year a bit further west into the Baltics, Ukraine & Belarus not far off this time last year, see below. I don't think the Eurasian snow cover has A LOT of bearing on our little island a long way west yet people get excited about it every Autumn.

image.thumb.png.98f6959fb5230352f4162b10b9df0aa3.png

 

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32 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

The same old doughnut every Autumn. Thing is this time last year the snow cover was pretty similar but the winter in the UK was rubbish, actually if anything there was more snow last year a bit further west into the Baltics, Ukraine & Belarus not far off this time last year, see below. I don't think the Eurasian snow cover has A LOT of bearing on our little island a long way west yet people get excited about it every Autumn.

image.thumb.png.98f6959fb5230352f4162b10b9df0aa3.png

 

The Snow Advance Index has very little bearing on whether we get Winter snow here.

ENSO, QBO  and solar energy are far more relevant. 

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The ice is far more vital in my eyes. Constant ice growth is symptomatic of deep and lasting cold in the north. The snow, especially at this time of year, is transient at best in many areas.

Hence my happiness with this year, far closer to the nigh mythical 2010 than it has been for a few years.

No the snow and ice isn't evidence of a cold winter here, but it's part of the puzzle, and to me, the most fun bit.

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18 minutes ago, throwoff said:

The ice is far more vital in my eyes. Constant ice growth is symptomatic of deep and lasting cold in the north. The snow, especially at this time of year, is transient at best in many areas.

Hence my happiness with this year, far closer to the nigh mythical 2010 than it has been for a few years.

No the snow and ice isn't evidence of a cold winter here, but it's part of the puzzle, and to me, the most fun bit.

I totally agree with you. In order to get the best possible chance of colder incursions especially from the north,  ice concentration needs to be greater than it has been for the last few years 

 

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Ohhh, I dunno. Generally speaking and I really do mean generally, you are more likely to see blocking conditions with an easterly QBO and a low solar point (which we have this year). However, that little pesky La Nina isn't really ideal and although the easterly QBO and solar should keep the jet more subdued, the La Nina does favour the Atlantic into western Europe and at times a little beyond. You can't hand on heart say that recent observed conditions and near to medium term model output is unusual with the present ENSO conditions.

Ice and snow cover help with a negative AO, but it doesn't override more important aspects, such as the ENSO state, QBO, etc. During the seasons, the amplitude of the MJO comes into play as well. Having the snow cover also helps with the potency of an easterly if it comes. So, don't think of the snow cover as a driver, more of a little extra help when the appropriate conditions come around.

I'm really not qualified to make forecasts, but I think going for an about average winter for the UK (which is no bad thing!) would be the form horse and that will come from changeable and unsettled conditions. I don't think it is going to be mild. Some prolonged cold (more than a week or so), could happen, but I think this would come from polar blocking, if it comes at all.

Things would have looked quite promising indeed if the current ENSO state was more weak El Nino. That combined with the current QBO and solar would have increased the chances a lot and also helped big ups he chances of the benefits of a SSW, which are also less likely to yield what coldies desire with a weak La Nina.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Is there any evidence that backs this Ross?

I'm sure that October 2010 and 2012 had decent falls in Scandinavia, but that's all the evidence I have.

I got this idea from members here discussing it, and also from Gavin's winter updates over the past few years. It's of course not the one thing that needs to materialise for us to have a cold winter, but I guess it tells us that the Atlantic is less zonal than it should be if there's snow there, or at least a more negative tilt to the jet towards NW Europe. 

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5 hours ago, jvenge said:

Things would have looked quite promising indeed if the current ENSO state was more weak El Nino. That combined with the current QBO and solar would have increased the chances a lot and also helped big ups he chances of the benefits of a SSW, which are also less likely to yield what coldies desire with a weak La Nina.

 

Whilst the current ENSO state is neutral, the latest NOAA report yesterday still predicts a higher probability of weak La Nina for Winter 2017/2018.....

---

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch
ENSO-Neutral conditions are present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
La Niña conditions are favored (~55%-65%) during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18.*

See link......

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

If La Nina is achieved, plus the eQBO phase and lower solar output, I would be surprised if we don't get at least one decent snowy cold spell this Winter.

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10 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

I guess this isn't good news for anyone wanting the cold to spread here? Someone on here might know more than me.

http://www.severe-weather.eu/news/extreme-warming-in-the-arctic-over-the-next-10-days/

 

 

This is good news I think as it means higher pressure over the poles which in turn could bring colder weather further south for us

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33 minutes ago, Willsy said:

This is good news I think as it means higher pressure over the poles which in turn could bring colder weather further south for us

This same thing happened in the last few winters with record warmth in the Arctic and we didn't benefit at all. If we get northerlies, they will be watered down (filled with warm sectors). We need the ice cover to grow not slow down/stall.

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3 hours ago, Bradowl said:

I guess this isn't good news for anyone wanting the cold to spread here? Someone on here might know more than me.

http://www.severe-weather.eu/news/extreme-warming-in-the-arctic-over-the-next-10-days/

 

 

Lets see how this actually turns out. I wouldn't be surprised if that site was doing the opposite of a daily express. Plucked on run out of several rather than looking at the trends.

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4 hours ago, karyo said:

This same thing happened in the last few winters with record warmth in the Arctic and we didn't benefit at all. If we get northerlies, they will be watered down (filled with warm sectors). We need the ice cover to grow not slow down/stall.

Agreed, the so called northerlies we got last winter were best described feeble. 

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