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Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2017/18

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Hjerkinn at just over 1000 metres in central southern Norway this morning -

Though much of the precipitation likely falls as snow at any time of the year, accumulations are probably small. Bearing in mind how western Norway is one of the wettest places in Europe, it is interesting how strong the rain-shadow is, with this reasonably high altitude location being one the driest places in the country, having a desert-like annual precipitation total of only 222mm on average -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hjerkinn

Edited by Interitus
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Flying over the Alps as I do regularly now, I am happy to report an increased coverage over the higher altitudes this week :-)

20170922_165358.jpg

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7 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

That's a good dumping in 2 days

cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

Much of eastern Siberia is below freezing during the day now.

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59 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Much of eastern Siberia is below freezing during the day now.

Getting there. Just had a look at that old favourite Oymyakon. Looks like the maxima will dip below freezing on Sunday 01 October and stay that way. Similiar story for Yakutsk too. The Siberian cold pool buildeth.

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Expect to see big increases in snow cover in the next week or so. 

 

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On 8/28/2017 at 15:24, CreweCold said:

Unfortunately (and it's nothing but experience talking here), when long range modelling converges on a mild outlook, a mild outlook is what we tend to get. Models tend to do very well modelling zonal driven regimes and there is usually only small margins of error in the output.

If there was large variability between the main long range forecasting tools and the opinions of the pros then you could argue that attempting to forecast the upcoming winter is futile...however there isn't and I think it's a fairly straight forward call this year sadly.

Ha ha ha !! this comment is hilarious, the crystal ball is out early this year I see. A bit of reverse psychology, I like it!!! 

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6 hours ago, John Badrick said:

Ha ha ha !! this comment is hilarious, the crystal ball is out early this year I see. A bit of reverse psychology, I like it!!! 

Yes, all part of the fun at Netweather. 

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On 22/09/2017 at 22:35, frozencanals said:

Flying over the Alps as I do regularly now, I am happy to report an increased coverage over the higher altitudes this week :-)

20170922_165358.jpg

All that snow I saw last week in the Alps had disappeared when I flew over them again yesterday....  :-(

FC

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Annnnnnnd....... I'm Back! A month later than usual, but strapping myself in for the Great British Annual Snow Hunt!  I say it every year, but this year is the one... Another 2010 on its way!

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Here we go... the first day of the all-important october snow advance -

cursnow_asiaeurope-1.thumb.gif.a03628c9896bfd772ddb1b283269c893.gif

and 2010 for comparison-

ims2010274_asiaeurope.thumb.gif.a37b37645675a593b75253316b6896e1.gif

remember, regarding the 'controversial' SAI, a 'good head start' means nothing. its all about the rate of growth, not the actual amount. here's how the end of Oct 2010 looked-

ims2010304_asiaeurope.thumb.gif.eef448ba212cd25b6a2de4e14626695c.gif

so that's the kind of scenario we're aiming for....:good:

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7 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

Well, it doesn't look good if you trust the models in the next 10 days. I hope the models are correct and then we get a cold winter. We can then put this very fragile and tentative theory to bed! 

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Guys, where I can find weekly charts of SAI and SCE growth/change, can you post a link please?

 

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ideally charts that compare against previous years,thanks

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Good covering of snow in the high Tatra mountains (border of Poland and Slovakia).

 

zakopane.jpg

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6 hours ago, jules216 said:

Guys, where I can find weekly charts of SAI and SCE growth/change, can you post a link please?

 

I have this bookmarked, http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2017/ 

But if you want more detail I would advise following Judah Cohen on Twitter and if you message him he does usually reply. Eurasia Snow advance is something he is very keen on when he goes in-depth on his blogs.

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6 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Ohh I say.....that was one hell of a weekend of snow in Siberia

cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

up to 20-40cm of snow forecast across southern Alberta today..woke to a covering of snow in Edmonton this morning.

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6 hours ago, jules216 said:

ideally charts that compare against previous years,thanks

There's a Northern Hem Snow Cover Extent chart here:

https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/snow-cover-extent-northern-hemisphere-climate-data-record-rutgers

rutgers_sne_nhem.png?itok=Nap5fn4Y

Edit: Just noticed it only goes to 2014. Here's the data so that you can plot your own:

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_area.php?ui_set=1&ui_sort=0

I think the SAI is Cohen's own index and I'm not sure if there is public access anywhere. His most recent blog (18th Sep) is here:

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

It's perhaps not worth getting too attached to these things though.

Quote

With a predicted strong negative AO in the coming weeks, snow cover is likely to advance relatively quickly heading into October.  It is very early in the snow season but recent falls have been snowy across Siberia and therefore I do expect another upcoming snowy fall across Siberia.  Though admittedly, recent Siberian snow cover as a predictor of winter temperatures has been mixed.

 

 

Edited by Yarmy

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