atlantic hurricane season Hurricane Harvey

[SMU]

Nice loop- 

 

The last frame is showing a perfect circular structure- indications thats its well on the way to CAT 3 status ( cat 4/5 still not out the picture )- just depends on time & that warm eddy

Edited August 25, 2017 by Steve Murr

[Iceberg]

The hurricane has been steady for several hours now as the core digests a breakdown approx 967mb. Doppler confirms this and now also confirms that the eye has re tighten ed with some vigorous instability in the eye wall. 

There is still some dry air near the eye and It could well breach the eye wall again. Any further strengthening will depend purely on the intervals of the eye wall. 

[Gray-Wolf]

I just wonder how much rain Texas will harvest from it? There is a chance it may stall once on land and that would leave it drawing a lot of moisture off the gulf to drop on Texas?

Well worth keeping an eye on esp. once the sun is up over there!!!

Then we'll be looking out for reporters braving the landfall!

[karyo]

Both GFS and ECM this morning show that once Harvey makes landfall, will move back to the Gulf and restrengthen. Then make a second landfall somewhere between east Texas and Lousianna. So the likelihood of this storm to keep making the headlines for many days to come. The ECM was the first to show this scenario.

The UKMO doesn't agree with this and only shows one landfall.

Also, the chances of a second hurricane forming close to the east coast seem to have increased today.

[summer blizzard]

Harvey had an eyewall replacement cycle overnight which is why the eyewall is still open to the south west but closing quickly and looks very strong. 

967mb, 105mph. 

With about 24 hours over water we should see this get close to a category 4. 

[Iceberg]

I am not convinced of an erc. Nhc mentioned dry air in the last update and this continues to effect the eye. Radar still indicates it's close to the eye wall and it looks like a mid level dry layer keeps feeding in. 

The eye itself is small and more susceptible.  

More strengthening can still occur and probably will but could stop at any moment if the eye weakens again. 

[Iceberg]

Recon have just entered the eye again pressure now 955mb and winds unconfirmed of 98kts. 

Quite a fall......and probably due to the eye contraction. 

Edited August 25, 2017 by Iceberg

[summer blizzard]

23 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

I am not convinced of an erc. Nhc mentioned dry air in the last update and this continues to effect the eye. Radar still indicates it's close to the eye wall and it looks like a mid level dry layer keeps feeding in. 

The eye itself is small and more susceptible.  

More strengthening can still occur and probably will but could stop at any moment if the eye weakens again. 

Recon found an inner and outer eyewall about 4 hours ago, it's just sorted itself out relatively quick. 

[Iceberg]

The concentric eye walls were certainly interesting but I don't think the inner wall collapsed, outer wall strengthening, then contraction and 12mb fall in pressure is likely in just a few hours. 

I think it's more likely that the inner wall fixed itself mixed out the dry air and then contracted, partly as we can still see the dry slots presumedly associated with the outer eye still on radar. 

Whatever happened Harvey is still strengthening and seems to have entered another ri cycle for now with winds responding to just shy of cat 3. 

Further passes should confirm the rate of drop and will be very crucial to cat 4 or above status 

[Iceberg]

Recon just completed a second pass and pressure has dropped to 950mb so a fall of 4-5mb in an hr. 

to state the obvious, if the eye stays stable then a cat 4 is certainly on the cards and almost definite. 

[Iceberg]

Harvey is plodding along nicely. 

Outer bands lasting the Texas coast. 

Very intense cdo. 

The eye is becoming almost pin hole now. 

Pressure from recon shows considerable well spread winds...unfortunately. 

Recon just about to enter eye again and might be sub 950mb

[Gael_Force]

I think your radar image is one for a gif presentation ... perfect 'Catherine wheel'!

[Iceberg]

Recon just confirms 947mb pressure so still falling massively. 

Winds in the ne quad being sampled but a large hurricane strength field here which is more bad news for places like Victoria. 

90+kt ft winds will extensive. 

Just shy of a major still but 95% certain now. 

[Iceberg]

Just to add pressure for a cat 4 tends to be 930-945mb. 

Rainfall is current more extensive than expected. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Well if it wobbles inland and then staggers backward into the Gulf again there will be a steady conveyor of moisture feeding into its N/O / Florida flank that could last for days?

N/O had an issue with its pumps not coping with the rainfall intensity a few weeks back. Are they in for similar again?

EDIT: Some reports of fuel running out in corpus Christie so some folk might be in a pretty bad position if they get stranded there?

Did the Mayor there also tell the state that they did not need folk ordering them about???

Well tonight will be a long one!!!

Edited August 25, 2017 by Gray-Wolf

[Iceberg]

Parts of that area of Texas are still due to have rainfall from Harvey for nearly 7 days according to the latest gfs. Factor in a few extra days for rivers to fully rise and some families will be affected for the next 10 days. 

[SenlacJack]

Galveston seawall webcam here :

http://www.galveston.com/seawallvideocam/

Looking pretty rough there already.

[knocker]

 

[Gray-Wolf]

And I guess the news crews will be reminding us that trump is still without a head of NOAA and Fema..........

[mwm991]

My stomach is sick to the thought of what these people are going to go through. I was in Baton Rouge last year for their record flooding and even that will pale into what a hurricane can produce. God forbid it comes back out to the gulf and back up to Louisiana.

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Iceberg said:

Just to add pressure for a cat 4 tends to be 930-945mb. 

Rainfall is current more extensive than expected. 

Blimy that is bad news as the forecast totals were bad enough already.

[alexisj9]

44 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

And I guess the news crews will be reminding us that trump is still without a head of NOAA and Fema..........

Really needs to be sorted asap if posible.

[Summer Sun]

Some largely populated cities could be in for as much as 30inches / 2.5ft of rain in the coming days it doesn't look like a hurricane which moves through relatively quickly

[Summer Sun]

 

[Iceberg]

harvey is concentric again and is trying for an erc the smaller eye is quite ragged now and te much larger one in good shape. 

Harvey might just reform the inner wall. Whatever happens it will be very noticeable from land Doppler.