atlantic hurricane season Hurricane Harvey

[summer blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Hurricane Andrew said:

The eye starting to show maybe ?

Eyes often don't show on visible when a storm is rapidly intensifying so no guarantee but there is a closed 16 mile eye. 

[Iceberg]

Harvey is still powering up, visual shows towers still building around the centre.

NHC now agree with RI and show a major making landfall, with 12 inchs of rain, widespread and winds of over 120mph.

Path looks to be stable, with a hit between Corpus and Houston. Victoria being the biggest town inland. However 12z GFS is rather scary considering it doesn't have the ultra high res but still brings a sub 940mb cat 4 hitting much closer to corpus.

IMHO a cat 3 to 5 looks to be pretty certain, with the cone being corpus to Houston.

[Iceberg]

Just to add to that as I am watching the GFS 12z trickle out to T60. It actually stalls Harvey considerably a few miles north of Corpus, which would be very bad news indeed.

[toggerob]

Thanks for the updates everyone as I had no clue that Harvey was intensifying this fast. The NHC are plotting Harvey as a major 'Cane making it's way onshore by Friday with a 7ft storm-surge.

[Gael_Force]

Yes, bad surge figures for the Gulf coast.

and, as usual, amazing on Goes16. Just look at those hot towers bubbling up!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

 

Edited August 24, 2017 by Gael_Force

[Iceberg]

Still awaiting the noaa recon flight which should be recording interesting info in around 1 hrs time.

GFS 12z goes for 100hrs of very intense rain and hurricane to tropical storm winds for the texas GOM coast. accumulations in places look to easily be over 2-3m during that timeframe.

Dvorak continues to show the rapid intensification of Harvey.

[Iceberg]

Close up vis shows the towers and deep cloud around the eye, sure indicator of further strengthening.

[knocker]

The 12z gfs

[Sainsbo]

77kt surface winds measured on the latest recon, we're at Cat. 1

 

 

Edited August 24, 2017 by Sainsbo

[toggerob]

Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE WITH 80-MPH WINDS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Harvey has intensified to a hurricane, with maximum sustained
winds of 80 mph (130 km/h).

A Special Advisory will be issued by 1 PM CDT (1800 UTC) in lieu
of the intermediate advisory to update the intensity forecast.

[Iceberg]

Yep, Official NHC has issued an emergency update

...HARVEY STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE WITH 80-MPH WINDS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Harvey has intensified to a hurricane, with maximum sustained
winds of 80 mph (130 km/h).

Last pass found sub 980mb pressure, just at 979.6mb.

Even without further strengthening this is going to be a cat 2, but a cat 4 pressure reading tonight is possible

[toggerob]

The map only goes up to 6ft, but it shows the effect of what such a sea-level rise would have around Corpus Christi/Houston.

https://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slr

[Paul]

Not sure I'd fancy seeing this coming my way, knowing it's just the beginning...

 

[Iceberg]

Ecm 12z has an interesting solution. 

It stalls and then travels just off the coast still intensifying and then making landfall near Galveston as a major. 

I am not sure it has a good handle on the strength for the first 24 hrs or so 

[Gael_Force]

Just beautiful .... even though it will bring misery for many. 

The high resolution loop is so detailed, showing the typical 'nautilus' appearance.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

[toggerob]

Windyty has Harvey as barely making it inland past Corpus Christi, bouncing back off the coast into the Gulf, then re intensifying to make landfall again around Baton Rogue before dissipating.

[Gray-Wolf]

Well those 30C SST's run pretty deep so who knows what we might wake up to?

No head of NOAA and no head of FEMA , nice one trumplethinskin!!!

[summer blizzard]

Thread title needs updating. 

Now at 85mph, NHC forecasting 125mph at peak. 

[Nick F]

30 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Windyty has Harvey as barely making it inland past Corpus Christi, bouncing back off the coast into the Gulf, then re intensifying to make landfall again around Baton Rogue before dissipating.

little steering flow to keep it moving inland, even if it is currently moving NW at 10-15mph overland it will have little impetus to keep that track, a look at the 50 EPS perturbations suggests many keeping Harvey hugging the Texas shoreline over 4-5 day period, quite a few taking the storm NE towards LA, the mean keeping Harvey just offshore of the central part of the Texas coast up to day 4.

Edited August 24, 2017 by Nick F

[summer blizzard]

976mb (dropping about 1mb an hour). Two outflow channels on the east side, half of one on the east. 

Edited August 24, 2017 by summer blizzard

[Nick F]

Upto 35 inches of rainfall and 6-12ft storm surge  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/242045.shtml

Quote

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the
same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country over through central and southwest Louisiana, with
accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause
devastating and life-threatening flooding.

Quote

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft

 

[summer blizzard]

The earlier recon mission was scrubbed due to a technical error so it's been a few hours since the last however one is now en route and probably at a fantastic time considering the lightening strikes in the core (typically occurs during rapid intensification). 

[summer blizzard]

972mb and still not in the center. 

[summer blizzard]

970mb so a 6mb drop in about 4 hours. Can't wait up for the winds sadly.

Harvey has seen the fastest 24 hour deepening since Hurricane Karl of 2010. 

[knocker]

Edited August 25, 2017 by knocker