September 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield down to 13.4C -1.9C below normal.  Looking like tomorrow will be the low point with the GFS showing a small recovery. I wouldn't be surprised if we were only just below average by the end of the month. 

Mmmm not too sure on that, nightime minima Friday and Saturday look low, along with maxima, so I suspect the low point will be Sunday. Next week not looking especially mild either, average temps at best, making a milder than normal month increasingly unlikely now.

[NorthYorksWeather]

13.9c here to the 13th, 0.4c below the 1981-2010 average.

Looking at the models it would suggest around Mon/Tues will be the low point here, we shall see.

[Styx]

A cold start to the new season here too. Half way thru September we have a mean anomaly of -1.7c below the 1981-10 average or -1.5c below the 1961-90 average. The Hobart average min is 5.0c to the 15th, and the average max is 14.0c. I don't expect it to be as cold as this at the end of the month, but its a reasonably big gap already to notch up the third 'cold' month in a row. This is a really nice break from what looks like the new norm, recent years have seen month after month of warmth, creating a lot of problems. 

[Summer Sun]

14.1 to the 14th

0.2 below the 61 to 90 average

0.7 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 15.1 to the 5th

[The PIT]

No change for Sunny Sheffield 13.3C -1.9C below normal.

[The PIT]

21 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Mmmm not too sure on that, nightime minima Friday and Saturday look low, along with maxima, so I suspect the low point will be Sunday. Next week not looking especially mild either, average temps at best, making a milder than normal month increasingly unlikely now.

Latest GFS reversing the warmer temperatures. If we manage to to get to the 22nd still well below and models not showing any warmer weather then there's extremely high chance of sunny Sheffield recording our second well below average month. 2013 was the last time that happened here. GFS at the moment throwing up a warm end but thats well into gaga land.

Edited September 15, 2017 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

13.9 to the 15th

0.3 below the 61 to 90 average

0.8 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 15.1 to the 5th

[NorthYorksWeather]

13.6c here to the 15th, 0.6c below the 1981-2010 average.

Further drops look to continue in the coming days.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 13.2C  -1.9C below normal.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 13.1C -1.9C below normal.

[Summer Sun]

13.8 to the 16th

0.4 below the 61 to 90 average

0.9 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 15.1 to the 5th

[Roger J Smith]

Based on 06z GFS would estimate holding near 13.6 to Monday 18th then rest of the month averages about 15 with some days as warm as 18 indicated, all of that would produce an end result of 14.2 C. This is probably an after-adjustment estimate too. 

[NorthYorksWeather]

A drop to 13.4c here overnight, 0.8c below the 1981-2010 average.

A couple more drops likely before milder conditions arrive midweek.

[Summer Sun]

13.6 to the 17th

0.5 below the 61 to 90 average

1.0 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 15.1 to the 5th

•  

[NorthYorksWeather]

13.1c here to the 18th, 0.9c below the 1981-2010 average.

This may well be the low point for the month, looking at the models its possible we could end up back at average or potentially above by the end of the month.

[Summer Sun]

13.6 to the 18th

0.5 below the 61 to 90 average

1.0 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 15.1 to the 5th

Edited September 19, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Sunny76]

On 15/09/2017 at 06:37, Styx said:

A cold start to the new season here too. Half way thru September we have a mean anomaly of -1.7c below the 1981-10 average or -1.5c below the 1961-90 average. The Hobart average min is 5.0c to the 15th, and the average max is 14.0c. I don't expect it to be as cold as this at the end of the month, but its a reasonably big gap already to notch up the third 'cold' month in a row. This is a really nice break from what looks like the new norm, recent years have seen month after month of warmth, creating a lot of problems. 

What kind of problems? 

 

Some people, (not including myself though)prefer milder temps. 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 13.1C -1.7C below normal

[Yarmy]

2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

What kind of problems? 

 

Some people, (not including myself though)prefer milder temps. 

 

He's in Tasmania, so drought amongst other things.

[Sunny76]

I think a colder than average run will happen eventually. 

[summer blizzard]

Sadly it would appear that we will be screwed out of a below average month with a second half that will come in warmer than the first. 

GFS a tad more progressive in kicking the high away but both the Euro and GFS would see the adjusted figure somewhere near 14.5C.

[Don]

15 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Sadly it would appear that we will be screwed out of a below average month with a second half that will come in warmer than the first. 

GFS a tad more progressive in kicking the high away but both the Euro and GFS would see the adjusted figure somewhere near 14.5C.

At least the monthly CET would finish close to my 14.6C guess!  However, that would be a great shame, particularly after such a more seasonal first half than we've been used to in recent years.

[Marcus71]

23 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Sadly it would appear that we will be screwed out of a below average month with a second half that will come in warmer than the first. 

GFS a tad more progressive in kicking the high away but both the Euro and GFS would see the adjusted figure somewhere near 14.5C.

My calculations could well be wrong, but to get to 14.5 the rest of the month would need to average about 16C, not taking into account adjustments. I think that looks fairly unlikely - the nights look like getting warmer but no real increase in daytime temps. I think it will end somewhere around 14C if the slight warm-up comes to pass.

[Summer Sun]

13.5 to the 19th

0.6 below the 61 to 90 average

1.0 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 15.1 to the 5th

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Sadly it would appear that we will be screwed out of a below average month with a second half that will come in warmer than the first. 

GFS a tad more progressive in kicking the high away but both the Euro and GFS would see the adjusted figure somewhere near 14.5C.

It depends on your perspective though- many will be delighted about this turnaround. Not too often that the 2nd half of a cooling month like September ends up warmer than the first. It could well happen this time though.

The first 20 days of the month have been for the most part miserable in these parts- rainy, windy and cold. There is plenty more time for cold, miserable autumnal weather so it's nice to have to chance to enjoy some relative warmth while it's still possible.