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September 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 14C -1.6C below normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

14.7 to the 9th

0.2 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4 below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________________

Current high this month 15.1 to the 5th

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

14.5c here to the 9th, bang on the 1981-2010 up to this point in the month.

5 day forecast continues to show below average temps.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

14.5 to the 10th

Bang in the 61 to 90 average

0.5 below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________________

Current high this month 15.1 to the 5th

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Latest GFS is a chilly one, with the CET dropping towards the mid 13s in a weeks time, about 1C below the 81-10 average.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 13.8C -1.7C below normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
18 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Latest GFS is a chilly one, with the CET dropping towards the mid 13s in a weeks time, about 1C below the 81-10 average.

Interesting, if that pans out then a below average September could be in the offing. Only two thirds of the way through the month in a week's time but still, the potential is there. (NB feel free to mercilessly mock me for using the dreaded p word)

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

14.2c here, 0.3c below the 1981-2010 average.

No sign of anything but below average temps in the 5 day forecast.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

14.4 to the 11th

0.1 below the 61 to 90 average

0.6 below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________________

Current high this month 15.1 to the 5th

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

This year's beginning to remind me of 1992

If we get a few nice days at the end of this month, I think my October guess is going to involve thinking it will be a tad chilly!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 13.6C  -1.8C below normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
7 hours ago, Timmytour said:

This year's beginning to remind me of 1992

If we get a few nice days at the end of this month, I think my October guess is going to involve thinking it will be a tad chilly!

1950 is an interesting comparison also.  I'm not old enough to remember, but the data shows a warm June and notably wet September.  The August CET also identical to 2017 and overall spring and summer rainfall totals are very similar (June appears to have been more anticyclonic despite the similar CET value).

October 1950 was warmer than 1992 but was much drier after the wet start to Autumn, but like 1992 it then turned wetter into November.  Both 1992 and 1950 featured a colder December than we've been used to recently (1.2C in 1950 and 3.6C in 1992).

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

14.3 to the 12th

0.1 below the 61 to 90 average

0.7 below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________________

Current high this month 15.1 to the 5th

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A notably chilly few days ahead will knock the CET downwards into the 13's by the end of the weekend. Long time since we had such a cool first half to September.. Some chilly nights also on the cards, single digits for many, lower in the countryside.

There is still alot of the month to go though, and whether we return a below average month is difficult to predict. A warm up of sorts early-mid next week is being forecasted, and near or slightly above average temps could then see the rest of the month out. I am not seeing a major warm up though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

No change sunny Sheffield still 13.6C  -1.7C below normal. Expecting a change tomorrow due to today's low maximum

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

A first half of September (1st to 15th) at or below 14.0 seems cool by recent standards but long-term the average is 14.2 and it's only recently that sub-14 became unusual. 

2013 and 2015 finished 13.8 and 13.0, but one then has to go back to 2001 (13.9) and before that, to 1992-94 when the first half averaged 12.7, 13.5 and 13.1.

For anything colder than 1992 (12.7) we then need to go back to 1986 (11.2) which was colder than every first half except for 10.7 (1807), 11.1 (1931) and the 11.2 (1908) which tied 1986. 

Others that were sub-12 include 1816, 1925 and 1952 (11.4), 1860 (11.5), 1850 (11.6), 1836 (11.8), 1873 and 1894 (11.9) while 1965 and some earlier years finished on 12.0. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

A first half of September (1st to 15th) at or below 14.0 seems cool by recent standards but long-term the average is 14.2 and it's only recently that sub-14 became unusual. 

2013 and 2015 finished 13.8 and 13.0, but one then has to go back to 2001 (13.9) and before that, to 1992-94 when the first half averaged 12.7, 13.5 and 13.1.

For anything colder than 1992 (12.7) we then need to go back to 1986 (11.2) which was colder than every first half except for 10.7 (1807), 11.1 (1931) and the 11.2 (1908) which tied 1986. 

Others that were sub-12 include 1816, 1925 and 1952 (11.4), 1860 (11.5), 1850 (11.6), 1836 (11.8), 1873 and 1894 (11.9) while 1965 and some earlier years finished on 12.0. 

Thanks for the stats, I think the current mean is being skewed by relatively average minima, maxima certainly a fair bit below the early-mid Sept average. I wonder how many of the years mentioned brought low means thanks to low mins - possibly more anticylonic conditions. I don't recall 2013 and 2015 bringing the woeful maxes we have seen so far this month, indeed it feels much more akin to the likes of 92-94 era in that respect which were predominantly wet atlantic affairs, with winds often between north and west.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
15 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Thanks for the stats, I think the current mean is being skewed by relatively average minima, maxima certainly a fair bit below the early-mid Sept average. I wonder how many of the years mentioned brought low means thanks to low mins - possibly more anticylonic conditions. I don't recall 2013 and 2015 bringing the woeful maxes we have seen so far this month, indeed it feels much more akin to the likes of 92-94 era in that respect which were predominantly wet atlantic affairs, with winds often between north and west.

It certainly does look like we could see an appreciably below average month (at least 1C below the 1981-2010 average) if we see a pattern like this in the final third of the month. 

Personally i love it. After many mild and dull September's we finally have one which feels like proper Autumn. Cool and windy, reminding you of winter to come. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

14.2 to the 13th

0.1 below the 61 to 90 average

0.7 below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________________

Current high this month 15.1 to the 5th

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

I'm surprised the CET hasn't dropped more than by just 0.1C since yesterday. Is it for just England or the whole of the UK ?

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
29 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

I'm surprised the CET hasn't dropped more than by just 0.1C since yesterday. Is it for just England or the whole of the UK ?

The daily value was about 13.9, so a 0.1 drop seems about right.

Central England Temperature.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 13.4C -1.9C below normal.  Looking like tomorrow will be the low point with the GFS showing a small recovery. I wouldn't be surprised if we were only just below average by the end of the month. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
6 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

I'm surprised the CET hasn't dropped more than by just 0.1C since yesterday. Is it for just England or the whole of the UK ?

Just for England it's the mean central England temperature. I guess MCET doesn't have the same ring to it. Scotland and Ireland have their own version. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

So if you're wondering how often September gets warmer in the second half, that turns out to be 14% of the time in the 245 years for which we have daily data (35 out of 245). Normally the second half is 1.6 deg colder than the first half.

The most recent year with an increase from first half to second half is 1992 when the increase was 1.4 deg. 2011 came close by cooling only 0.1 deg. 

The largest increases (and the only ones larger than 1992) were 3.3 deg (1908), 2.1 deg (1976), 1.8 deg (1903), 1.7 deg (1814), 1.6 deg (1985) and 1.5 deg (1970), 1850 and 1938 tied with 1992 at 1.4 deg. The top ten is rounded out with 1.2 deg in 1956.

We also encountered 1908 when talking about the unusually cold weather in late April and there also it was an extreme case. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Interesting Roger will this September do it. Recently when we had a cold start to a month the 2nd half has offset it so I wonder.

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