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Matthew.

The link between 16+CET June's and Cold and Snowy late December

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So getting straight into the subject we have 4 past Decembers since 1940 followed by Hadley CETs of 16+ (1940, 1970, 1976, 2003) In all cases the last third of December includes a cold snowy spell. Note all years where data is available have an easterly QBO. In 2003 Cumbria recorded a temperature of -11c and the other years also recorded very low temperatures at some point. Will 2017 follow suit?

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Something I noted a few years ago, that Junes with a CET of 16.0 or more, many have been followed by chilly Decembers or hardly any mild Decembers. 

I think the December CET average of such Junes is about 3.0C

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December 1970 saw  a light dusting of snow on Christmas Day in the Wirral and that's all we had.  It was Spring 1970 that saw frequent cold shots with snow up to March.  In fact Winter 1969/70 was cold and snowy from Christmas onwards.

This isn't from dry statistics, these were personal observations.

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Those of us who are a bit skeptical as to this sort of thing there are other examples- years ending in 6 have warmer June's, strong El Niño events have cooler following Aprils, very warm septembers tendency to be followed by a milder winter. 

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Perhaps one of those statistical quirks.. we shall see. December 2003 was very average in the north, milder in the south. There was a bit of snow and cold weather in the last 10 days, but nothing special. Here in Cumbria we had a couple of inches on the 22 I think, which quickly thawed, it turned milder over christmas, before a frosty cold period descended 28th lasting through into the New Year, with further snow on the 2nd Jan.

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Well, it will be 7 years since the last cold December so a good chance I would say. 

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IMO, the problem with these 'links' (really correlations at the very best) is, without any evidence that A leads to B, one may as well suggest that NASA resumes its moon-landings; I'm reasonably sure that UK winters were statistically colder in decades containing frequenter Apollo missions?:D

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:D yes there odd correlations. I'm guessing certain patterns in one period somehow affects another later down the line. We will have to wait and see but it does seem reasonable to conclude a cold snowy spell of some description is due. Even if December came out average, it could be maybe be mild for a while then have 1 major outbreak? What evidence doesn't suggest is anything like 2010 though because that was historically cold. In a normal lifetime I think that sort of month is singular.

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What was the CET of both June '95 and June 2010? Both years had a warm second half of June and of course both had a very cold late December.

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

IMO, the problem with these 'links' (really correlations at the very best) is, without any evidence that A leads to B, one may as well suggest that NASA resumes its moon-landings; I'm reasonably sure that UK winters were statistically colder in decades containing frequenter Apollo missions?:D

The problem with this reasoning though is that it's totally inconceivable that NASA's Moon landings were affecting the weather; on the other hand, I don't see it as inconceivable that weather events at one time of year can in some way be linked to weather events further down the line. You sometimes see in physical systems that one state has a very high probability of evolving into another state at a later time, and it seems entirely plausible to me that these "links" may well be consequences/manifestations of this. If very warm Junes are a manifestation of a particular teleconnective/climatic state, then it may be that this state has a very high chance of evolving into another teleconnective/climatic state six months later which is conducive of wintry weather in our part of the world.

Edited by Relativistic
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9 minutes ago, Philipsfd said:

What was the CET of both June '95 and June 2010? Both years had a warm second half of June and of course both had a very cold late December.

1995: 14.3C

2010: 15.2C

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1 hour ago, Relativistic said:

The problem with this reasoning though is that it's totally inconceivable that NASA's Moon landings were affecting the weather; on the other hand, I don't see it as inconceivable that weather events at one time of year can in some way be linked to weather events further down the line. You sometimes see in physical systems that one state has a very high probability of evolving into another state at a later time, and it seems entirely plausible to me that these "links" may well be consequences/manifestations of this. If very warm Junes are a manifestation of a particular teleconnective/climatic state, then it may be that this state has a very high chance of evolving into another teleconnective/climatic state six months later which is conducive of wintry weather in our part of the world.

Which is precisely why I used it...conceivability (when not backed-up with so much as a shred of evidence) is little more than conjecture - even when it does hint at what we all want to hear?

Maybe the anomalous amount of spent rocket fuel was what caused the 1960s' winters to be cold...? Though technically 'conceivable', I agree that it is almost certainly nonsense. But, can the same not - based on the (lack of) evidence - also be said of so-called lunar and solar effects...after all, 1947 not only gave us the snowiest winter in living memory, it also saw a wonderful summer - all at the peak of the sunspot cycle?

As far as teleconnections are concerned, however; I think that all we need do is find them and verify them...:good:

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3 hours ago, Relativistic said:

 If very warm Junes are a manifestation of a particular teleconnective/climatic state, then it may be that this state has a very high chance of evolving into another teleconnective/climatic state six months later which is conducive of wintry weather in our part of the world.

Agree. Strong ENSO events leading to mild, unsettled November, Decembers then cool March, Aprils. I'll look at the ENSO events of the Junes and see if there's a link. All years start at neutral then by December end up in the 3 different categories so Maybe other stronger drivers are present.

Edited by Matthew.
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Personally i don't buy much of a link between months in this manner. 2006 for example saw a 15.9C June (far better than many June's to have breached 16C) and yet produced one of only two snowless December's in that decade.

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9 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Which is precisely why I used it...conceivability (when not backed-up with so much as a shred of evidence) is little more than conjecture - even when it does hint at what we all want to hear?

Maybe the anomalous amount of spent rocket fuel was what caused the 1960s' winters to be cold...? Though technically 'conceivable', I agree that it is almost certainly nonsense. But, can the same not - based on the (lack of) evidence - also be said of so-called lunar and solar effects...after all, 1947 not only gave us the snowiest winter in living memory, it also saw a wonderful summer - all at the peak of the sunspot cycle?

As far as teleconnections are concerned, however; I think that all we need do is find them and verify them...:good:

Having studied a variety of physical systems, my intuition tells me not to be so sceptical (it's good to be sceptical, but a level of open-mindedness is also needed). I'd like to make clear though that when I say it's plausible I don't mean it's likely, necessarily, just that there could be some kind of connection (unlike the Moon landing hypothesis!). I haven't carried out a full-blown analysis (and neither have you I suspect), but if the data show some kind of correlation, then to me this "link" isn't to be discarded (I fancy having a look at some point, could well find that such a link is weak at best). Goldbach's conjecture holds up to all numbers less than 4*10^18, still 0% of all even integers, but most mathematicians don't simply discard it!

As to your last point, I actually wish I'd referred to the climatic state as whole, and not simply teleconnective states. Unfortunately, I think our picture of the climate is so far from being complete that such a test would be meaningless (because there is so much we're not accounting for). This is where analogue forecasting fails, IMO.

Edited by Relativistic
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Not sure the links can be as precise as to determine a cold, snowy spell for the UK in the last third of December, but certainly links between June temperatures and winter NAO have been investigated eg. Summer snow extent heralding of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation

Quote

Abstract

[1] Winter climate over the North Atlantic and European sector is modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We find that the summer extent of snow cover over northern North America and northern Eurasia is linked significantly (p < 0.01) to the upcoming winter NAO state. Summers with high/low snow extent precede winters of low/high NAO index phase. We suggest the linkage arises from the summer snow-associated formation of anomalous longitudinal differences in surface air temperature with the subpolar North Atlantic. Our findings indicate the seasonal predictability of North Atlantic winter climate may be higher and extend to longer leads than thought previously.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2002GL016832/full

Clearly the conditions leading to these situations would probably also influence June CET to some degree.

Edited by Interitus
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I can't see this December being anything other than predominantly mild and wet.

At four month range we have the GLOSEA and CFS virtually identical in their prognosis

glbz700MonInd4.gif

glbz700MonInd5.gif

2cat_20170801_mslp_months46_global_deter

The prognosis is about as grim as you can get for winter prospects.

Put that together with what GP has noted about the likely early winter set up for the N hemisphere, it's a bleak picture.

IF we get a colder than average (CET) and snowy December I'll pick one random person who has commented in this thread and paypal them a tenner. If that doesn't tempt a cold December then I don't know what will!

Edited by CreweCold

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6 hours ago, Interitus said:

Not sure the links can be as precise as to determine a cold, snowy spell for the UK in the last third of December, but certainly links between June temperatures and winter NAO have been investigated eg. Summer snow extent heralding of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2002GL016832/full

Clearly the conditions leading to these situations would probably also influence June CET to some degree.

Thanks this is a very interesting point. I read something similar before but forgot all about this. Further to SummerBlizzard even if you take the high 15's also there is a lot of interest in cool Decembers as WeatherHistory alluded to but yes 2006 stands out more on its own away from the general signal.

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On 14/08/2017 at 02:14, CreweCold said:

I can't see this December being anything other than predominantly mild and wet.

At four month range we have the GLOSEA and CFS virtually identical in their prognosis

glbz700MonInd4.gif

glbz700MonInd5.gif

2cat_20170801_mslp_months46_global_deter

The prognosis is about as grim as you can get for winter prospects.

Put that together with what GP has noted about the likely early winter set up for the N hemisphere, it's a bleak picture.

IF we get a colder than average (CET) and snowy December I'll pick one random person who has commented in this thread and paypal them a tenner. If that doesn't tempt a cold December then I don't know what will!

:rofl: There’s some interesting Synoptics turning up:good:

Edited by Matthew.

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1 hour ago, Matthew. said:

:rofl: There’s some interesting Synoptics turning up:good:

I never understood Crewe Cold's fascination with CFS.

Complete Fantasy Scenarios.

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