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3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

No predictions, but perhaps a rather wetter than average season, given how much drier than average the last three have been. Overdue a warm wet one I think, can't remember the last warm wet one, 2004 possibly? Recent wet summers have been average/cooler than normal, and warmer summers drier or near average rainwise, 2013 and 2014 falling into the latter category.

Long overdue a sunny August.

Wasn't 2005 warm and wet?

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A lovely, fresh 17C here today. Miles better than the heat of yesterday. Roll on autumn proper! 

There aren't many more cringeworthy things in life than local radio discussing the weather! I have to turn it off in the car to avoid crashing out of anger and embarrassment.

i dont live in the UK

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9 hours ago, cheese said:

Wasn't 2005 warm and wet?

I think 2005 had average to slightly below average rainfall. A lot of the rain came in thundery periods although each month had a cool unsettled blip (12th-15th June, 24th-31st July and 22nd-26th August).

As far as I know, each month was above average, but Jume would've been considerably so if the first half wasn't so cool, likewise July if not for the final week, and August had relatively cool nights despite warm days.

Overall a very decent summer which continued into the first half of September.

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Summer forecast from the weather outlook

Quote

 

Overview

Warmer than average with the possibility of several hot periods. Unsettled spells are likely, especially during the first half of the summer.

Temperature

A warmer than average summer is expected. The aggregated Central England Temperature (CET) for June, July and August is forecast to be 1C to 2C above the average. There is considered to be a higher than average chance of extreme heat.

Precipitation

Close to average. Wetter conditions during the first half of the summer are forecast to be offset by drier conditions during the second half.

 

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

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long range  forecasts are nonsense...Its like putting your hand Into a  very  large bowl and picking out 1 ticket from  a billion.. No one  knows what will happen after   7 days never mind 3 months a head..

All I know is once our weather become unstable  the pattern  usually  gets stuck. same with settled periods.. all we can hope for  like any summer is we get our fair share of settled  warm  weather (if you like that, that is).

I personally don't think I could take another  wet   cold summer. we have had  too many of them in the last 10 years!.

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On ‎04‎/‎06‎/‎2017 at 16:56, weatherguru14 said:

so is the summer going downhill now??  any ideas?? :closedeyes:

its not going downhill its already downhill. A taste of 2012 for this week before next week another taste of 2012 and the week after its a classic 2012.   

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No it wouldnt be.

I think people are starting fret a bit.. The weather this weekend gone was rather good. It did shower a little yesterday but there was the plenty of warm sunshine and previous days leading up to yesterday was very nice. its only been today that's been a  right off in recent times.. infact apart from  2/3 day the last 3 weeks have been  very good indeed.

Hopefully come Friday which is suppose to be a decent day.. things will pick up  and  the pressure charts will look a lot more promising by then... I still think 2017 will go down as one of the better summers of the last 10 years.

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18 minutes ago, cheese said:

40C talks nonsense a lot. Ignore him.

He might not be talking nonsense as far as June is concerned - newly updated EC seasonal has a warm but very wet outlook for this month.

SeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170601_m1.png

You'll all be pleased to note that the picture for July and August is for above average temps with a very dry signature. :D

SeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170601_m2.png           SeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170601_m3.png

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1 hour ago, Nouska said:

He might not be talking nonsense as far as June is concerned - newly updated EC seasonal has a warm but very wet outlook for this month.

SeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170601_m1.png

You'll all be pleased to note that the picture for July and August is for above average temps with a very dry signature. :D

SeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170601_m2.png           SeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170601_m3.png

- and of course most of that wet signal for June could be from this coming week alone, in fact the distribution of anomalies matches the event today-tomorrow really quite closely.

I do still see a general settling down trend after this week although the ongoing Arctic mayhem means nerves are wrung tighter than usual for those seeing to anticipate the season ahead with at least some degree of effectiveness.

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3 hours ago, cheese said:

40C talks nonsense a lot. Ignore him.

Take a little sarcasm. But this week is a write off in my opinion and next week isn't looking that special either with HP out to the west bringing in a cool N/NW flow. 

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5 hours ago, Nouska said:

He might not be talking nonsense as far as June is concerned - newly updated EC seasonal has a warm but very wet outlook for this month.

SeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170601_m1.png

You'll all be pleased to note that the picture for July and August is for above average temps with a very dry signature. :D

SeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170601_m2.png           SeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170601_m3.png

I suppose it's possible that he will be proven correct - I just find it silly to write off entire months of seasons based on short-term model output, is all. 

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30mm of rain already here this month. With rain currently falling and more forecast on Thursday it's looking like we may surpass the 1981-2010 average for the entire month by the end of the week!

That'll be more than March and April put together.

Not exactly a good start to summer!

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24 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Ironically it could be the warmest year on record CET-wise, but still not give a hot summer. 2014 had an annual CET of 10.93C but the summer was equal to the 1981-2010 mean.

Still, you know as soon as a 'blowtorch' summer is mentioned its probably going to be poor!

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My thoughts exactly. The sun have just taken the warmer than average outlook and made it into something its not. But who knows? Some models are pointing at a blocked Easterly pattern in July / Aug so it could bring heatwave conditions

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