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2 hours ago, 40*C said:

I still have positive thoughts for this summer. June/July very anti-cyclonic and dry with the odd hot spell and plume, August becoming autumnal as always the case with August these days.

I've got a feeling you could be on the money here. My only reservation is July being more of a typical month.

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A lovely, fresh 17C here today. Miles better than the heat of yesterday. Roll on autumn proper! 

There aren't many more cringeworthy things in life than local radio discussing the weather! I have to turn it off in the car to avoid crashing out of anger and embarrassment.

i dont live in the UK

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The problem  I don't like to think off., if the blocking high remains to north of the UK.. and the Atlantic  stats to stir.only direction the weather fronts will head is straight to the UK..we need to shift the blocking high  before the summer starts.:clap:

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17 hours ago, reef said:

We've just had one of the warmest Marches on record and both March and April were warmer, sunnier and drier than average. We also had areas reaching the low-mid 20s in the first week of April. I'm not sure what you expect in the UK in spring, which is after all the second coldest season on average. Despite that, its going to be anything but 'cold and cloudy' regardless of what May brings.

Yep. The post you quoted is a great example why you shouldn't trust human perception. Or at least amateur perception with lack of statistics. What people experience compared to what they 'think' is normal under controlled conditions is almost always wrong unless the conditions have been exceptional and sustained. We've all heard how old people remember the cold winters and hot summers of the past but when you look back the numbers don't really substantiate the claims. 

Edited by Optimus Prime
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You shouldn't  trust human perception??? so when you read  13c  feels like 7c???  that  comment from sites like the met office should be ignored.. because feeling  is a human  perception.. and should be ignored.

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I saw the forestry commission putting there 'extreme fire risk' signs out today for the NYM national park. Must be getting pretty dry up there with summer approaching and this current dry easterly really not helping the situation. Humidity inside has been even into the 30's the last 2 months! Not noticed it that low before consistently.

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I did predict drought conditions this summer as we are well overdue a long dry summer,that I thought was scuppered with lots of rain in feb and march but maybe now we could see the start of some prolonged dry periods.Long droughts here have been 1976,1983,1984,1989,1995 and 1996 but the last 20 years have seen little ,certainly nothing like the summers listed .

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2 hours ago, Summer 1976 said:

I saw the forestry commission putting there 'extreme fire risk' signs out today for the NYM national park. Must be getting pretty dry up there with summer approaching and this current dry easterly really not helping the situation. Humidity inside has been even into the 30's the last 2 months! Not noticed it that low before consistently.

 

County Durham and Darlington fire service have dealt with a number of grass fires in the past week extremely dry here

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8 hours ago, weatherguru14 said:

You shouldn't  trust human perception??? so when you read  13c  feels like 7c???  that  comment from sites like the met office should be ignored.. because feeling  is a human  perception.. and should be ignored.

'Feels Like' is a derived measurement from temperature, humidity and wind, and so a scientific formula is created from this.

My Davis station calculates something called the THSW Index - It uses the temperature, humidity, solar reading and wind speed, to give  an idea of how it actually feels out in the open - similar to a feels like calculation. Just a few weeks ago, the max temp hit 18°C, and the THSW index was in the mid 20's, and that's exactly how it felt while I was outside. It shouldn't be ignored.

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Oh indeed I remember   the weekend of mothers day.. It felt very warm  that weekend at the end of March..This afternoon wasn't that bad.. This morning first thing  was like  February and same this evening..The wind child  at the moment for the bulk of the uk  is ridiculous  but it gets classed as "cool"/

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11 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

Oh indeed I remember   the weekend of mothers day.. It felt very warm  that weekend at the end of March..This afternoon wasn't that bad.. This morning first thing  was like  February and same this evening..The wind child  at the moment for the bulk of the uk  is ridiculous  but it gets classed as "cool"/

No wind chill in effect down here, as the temp is currently above 12°C dance3.gif

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Do I see hints of May 2012 in this bbc forecast for the end of May:

 

Monday 15 May—Sunday 28 May

An uncertain end to the month, but warmer perhaps?

An elevated level of uncertainty is an inherent feature of medium to long range weather forecasting, but even taking account for this fact, the level of uncertainty in the forecast of the end of May is relatively high at time of writing.

The array of computer models that we utilise to make our forecasts are returning an unusually wide range of possible solutions for the end of the climatological spring. However, common themes of slightly warmer and drier than average conditions are at least two factors that the different models broadly agree on for the last weeks of May.

At this time of year, it is often the case that the jet stream takes on a broader, and wider meander in the vicinity of the skies above Europe, which often leads to the development of slow moving anticyclones, or 'blocking highs'. In such conditions, the impact on the UK weather can, at times, lead to very slow moving changes. It is therefore inferred that a blocking high will likely be the cause of the prolonged drier or warmer spell in our current forecast.

 

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This dry spell will come to a end,starting to feel this summer will be cool and wet,not every bodies cup of tea by far but would be perfect for me!:)

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if we don't lose the blocking high over Scandinavia, we will remain on the wrong of the jet stream and if winds up more active.. the weather fronts will get stuck in run over the UK. I don't care if it rains a little more as long as  weather fronts push  northwards and we get nice days after the rain pushes north..But stuck in westerly regime with  jet stuck over us. I don't like that at all. so we do need to  shift the high over Scandinavia that's been  there for several weeks now.

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4 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

am  i right in saying  the summer of 2006 included a  very warm September?? I do remember  june/july being very good.. august was a  bit disappointing..

Yes the warmest in the record(1910) but only around 15th sunniest(England) That was a unusually warm Autumn really.

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9 hours ago, markyo said:

This dry spell will come to a end,starting to feel this summer will be cool and wet,not every bodies cup of tea by far but would be perfect for me!:)

I think a warm, possibly wet summer may be on the cards. When you get systems throwing fronts up from the SW at this time of year they can carry ABUNDANT moisture. 

We're seeing signs in the modelling that this may be a pattern to come. 

I'll also add, it remains a distinct possibility within the larger set up that we see mean troughing centred far enough west that we actually have a hot summer with repeated SE'lys. 

Edited by CreweCold
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I think a warm, possibly wet summer may be on the cards. When you get systems throwing fronts up from the SW at this time of year they can carry ABUNDANT moisture. 

We're seeing signs in the modelling that this may be a pattern to come. 

I tend to agree with that prognosis, Crewe...I do, however, have an inkling that any plumes that do affect the UK might be even hotter than last year; as winter and spring have been so dry?

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I tend to agree with that prognosis, Crewe...I do, however, have an inkling that any plumes that do affect the UK might be even hotter than last year; as winter and spring have been so dry?

Quite possibly. I'm of the opinion that there will be a couple of periods of hot weather this summer. At this juncture,  however, I just cannot see it being that dry. 

Hopefully we get a couple of decent MCS events! 

Edited by CreweCold
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17 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I think a warm, possibly wet summer may be on the cards. When you get systems throwing fronts up from the SW at this time of year they can carry ABUNDANT moisture. 

We're seeing signs in the modelling that this may be a pattern to come. 

I'll also add, it remains a distinct possibility within the larger set up that we see mean troughing centred far enough west that we actually have a hot summer with repeated SE'lys. 

What's a little worrying from recent modelling is how high pressure is extending vertically west of Greenland. Hopefully not a pattern to come with low NW Europe heights.

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1 hour ago, Summer 1976 said:

What's a little worrying from recent modelling is how high pressure is extending vertically west of Greenland. Hopefully not a pattern to come with low NW Europe heights.

It could be...

We've been in a predominantly dry pattern since at least early autumn last year. History shows us that these patterns rarely last more than 12 months at most. Which means we are likely to see a switch at some point in the near future. Pinning this likely transition down is tricky though.

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I cant chat in the  models.. but the chars are summer like related  so will chat here.. I see the GFS as gone mad this evening. mid 20s in C  by day 10.. the chances of that happening are nigh on zilch.. It will be gone on the next  run.

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For the first time in perhaps a decade, I’m looking forward to the summer weather with a sense of optimism.  It has seemed that since 2007, for some reason, the dice have been rather loaded against prolonged hot spells in summer in the UK – that’s not to say there haven’t been any (July 2013 springs to mind) – it’s just that they have been less frequent than previously. 

This year, the Met Office contingency planners forecasts have been suggesting warmer than average, the long range models that I have looked at also suggesting high pressure more likely.  In fact, high pressure close to the UK seems to have been a factor in the weather for much of many months now, and while Sod’s law would suggest this will change in the run up to summer but there’s nothing scientific about Sods law!  So my money’s on a hotter than average one, and if that transpires I think I’m about 60%  hot, humid and thundery, 40% hot and dry.  Time will, as ever, tell. 

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