Summer 2017 Discussion

[Matthew.]

32 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

weather experts warning that there is little sign of rain to come

 

so a summer like  2007 then?  

Reminds me of 2012 aswell

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Too much negativity!!! A lot of the models are pointing towards warm and dry conditions.

[Matthew.]

31 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Too much negativity!!! A lot of the models are pointing towards warm and dry conditions.

Yes completely agree! If we do have a flaming June then there could be serious issues with water shortage in some parts of the country in just over a couple of months time.

 

Edited April 20, 2017 by Summer 1976

[Walsall Wood Snow]

On 11/04/2017 at 20:53, CreweCold said:

Hard to tell from the pressure anomaly

Possibly a slight bias towards continent meets Atlantic? 

I'll just add, I feel like this is first time in many summers that there is the potential for a 1995 scenario, maybe even a '76. This is, of course, not saying it's likely.

Well potential is better than no potential I suppose, but I wonder if that could be said in April any year? It's been a pretty long time since we've had a particularly hot and sunny Summer. I'd say 2006 was the last one of any real note which is 11 years ago now, so surely we're overdue one. Though I'm not entirely sure I want this, as the night's especially are a pain to sleep through. It does make the days both relaxed and alive at the same time though and people quite like it generally. It would be good to get a picture book major season for once as well after the general blandness of the last few years.

[weatherguru14]

I would happily  accept a summer like 2013.. what a July that was.We do  get warm spells in most summers.. It just always depends on how much  summer weather we get.. Hopefully the sun will shine  in 2017  

[Matthew.]

July 2006 was the sunniest and warmest on record and July 2013 was the 2nd sunniest on record for England back to 1929 and 4th warmest back to 1910. These were exceptional months.

[weatherguru14]

thanks for the information how did July 2014 come in  the stats? that was a very good July as well..

[Matthew.]

July 2014: 9th sunniest(1929) and 9th warmest(1910) for England.

Edited April 21, 2017 by Summer 1976

[Weather Boy]

On ‎13‎/‎04‎/‎2017 at 22:03, weatherguru14 said:

June was pretty good last year..I think people get blinded sometimes.. from my recollection the first 2 weeks were fine and we had a good  4/5 days near the end of June..

It was vey wet  for around 10 days  in the middle though.. July wasn't that good..But August and September were also good..2016 wasn't a classic summer.But it wasn't as bad as summers previously..  We had a lot of summer   days last year..

I have no idea what 2017 will bring. My only positive is that we are having a north-westerly in April rather then June or July.. to me north-westerly  ruin summers.. we are on the wrong side of the Atlantic the colder side..Hopefully we will get more of south westerly this summer. Not always the driest. But at least its a warmer direction so in the sun it feels warm.

I think that it strongly depends on your location.  Slightly surprised at the comment from Manchester that June was poor, as UK wide, the month was warm and dry and the NW fared best.  Unusually, it was fine in Scotland, the north and west, whereas my location for example had about double average rainfall, in common with much of the south.  That was the last wetter than average month that we have had and I note just 2.1 mm over the last four weeks!

Back to the topic, I think that it was Paul Hudson (maybe not, but definitely a professional) who observed that fine warm April often seems to precede a poor summer, the classic example being 2007.  However, this year, aside from the couple of warm days two weeks ago, temps have been no great shakes, despite it being dry and settled.  In any case, I am not sure how scientific that approach is, even if you do put April into that category.

In summary, like the rest of us, I don't know!

[Matthew.]

Looking through the records June 2010 is a good one from very recent times. I would take that with open arms. Ridges regularly pushing towards the vicinity of the Uk

[weatherguru14]

2009 June was also good.. and  June 2006..June 2013 was good in my location..It would be great if we got a warm May.. Cant really recall the last time we had  an outstanding May..

One thing I do remember  was the start of May 1995. am sure  it was 1995..It was very warm.

[cheese]

Summer 2009 and summer 2010 were pretty average temp-wise. Rather cloudy though.

[Matthew.]

2 hours ago, weatherguru14 said:

2009 June was also good.. and  June 2006..June 2013 was good in my location..It would be great if we got a warm May.. Cant really recall the last time we had  an outstanding May..

One thing I do remember  was the start of May 1995. am sure  it was 1995..It was very warm.

May 1989 and 92 were outstanding -very sunny and warm. In fact May 89' had similar sunshine hours to August 1995

[Dangerous55019]

On 17/04/2017 at 08:43, Summer 1976 said:

I'm going with June the best month of summer this year, maybe something special. August the most unsettled.

Evening Summer 1976 
I have to be honest, I'm sort of thinking the same as well 

[weatherguru14]

I see as per usual in ever year since  year dot. the warm up spells in the forecast get pushed back and back and back. like  for next week as an example...I often get annoyed this time of year.. At the inaccuracy of the models. which in all honesty just go for warm weather only to take it away..

[Summer of 95]

Dry warm April-bad summer:

1987, 2007, 2011, 2015

Dry warm April, mixed summer

1997

Dry warm April, good summer

????????

This April has been vaguely like April 1995, which was warm and sunny in the first half and turned much colder in the last week. The warmth then was longer lasting but less intense than 2017, but overall they were quite similar. March was totally different though with that snowfall at the start followed by just about everything.

Are we going to lose the "June is crap when the year ends in 7" thing this year????

[weatherguru14]

April as been warm?? apart from the couple of days at the start of the month there's been a cold wind blowing..The  over all average of the month will be diluted by the  25c reached in parts in the first week..It as been  dry there is no doubt that though.

April 2017 as not been warm at all.

[Matthew.]

4 hours ago, weatherguru14 said:

I see as per usual in ever year since  year dot. the warm up spells in the forecast get pushed back and back and back. like  for next week as an example...I often get annoyed this time of year.. At the inaccuracy of the models. which in all honesty just go for warm weather only to take it away..

Yes I know what you mean. I only look up to +144 seriously with Ukmo and ECM Models. After that just for fun. Usually with this method I don't get my expectations dropped too often.

[Matthew.]

3 hours ago, Summer of 95 said:

Dry warm April-bad summer:

1987, 2007, 2011, 2015

Dry warm April, mixed summer

1997

Dry warm April, good summer

????????

This April has been vaguely like April 1995, which was warm and sunny in the first half and turned much colder in the last week. The warmth then was longer lasting but less intense than 2017, but overall they were quite similar. March was totally different though with that snowfall at the start followed by just about everything.

Are we going to lose the "June is crap when the year ends in 7" thing this year????

I noticed an interesting example the other day of the very sunny April of 1984 which was followed by a very reasonable summer with near average temperatures but above average sunshine By the way June 1957 was the sunniest June on record + warm for England

Edited April 26, 2017 by Summer 1976

[Optimus Prime]

Correlating one month as a means of forecasting many months ahead has been proven to be nonsense. There really is no point.

[Matthew.]

Here's the top 10 Sunniest(Since 1929); Warmest June's(Since 1910) for England

1. 1957   1. 1976

2. 1940   2. 1940                                         

3. 1975   3. 1950

4. 1960   4. 2003

5. 1969   5. 1970

6. 1976   6. 2006

7. 1949   7. 1960

8. 1970   8. 1992

9. 1996   9. 2005

10.1950 10. 2004

[cheeky_monkey]

22 hours ago, Summer 1976 said:

Here's the top 10 Sunniest(Since 1929); Warmest June's(Since 1910) for England

1. 1957   1. 1976

2. 1940   2. 1940                                         

3. 1975   3. 1950

4. 1960   4. 2003

5. 1969   5. 1970

6. 1976   6. 2006

7. 1949   7. 1960

8. 1970   8. 1992

9. 1996   9. 2005

10.1950 10. 2004

June 1992...who would have thunk it...i dont even remember this month but according to the met office it was indeed a warm one and at the time was provisionally the second warmest June on record..somehow it managed this with average sunshine at just 105%?

[Weather-history]

Just for England and Wales, the top 20 driest Aprils ranked in order and the following summers.

1938: Average summer
1817: Cool wet summer
1912: Wet summer, a very cold August
2007: A very wet June/July
1957: A wet August
1893: A warm summer
1785: Average summer
1984: A very good summer

2011: a cool summer
1854: A cool dry summer
1974: A cool wet summer
1842: Warm June but cool July
1783: A hot July 
1954: A cool, wet summer
1844: A cool July, August
1980: A cool wet summer
1976: Hottest on record
1855: A wettish summer
1852: A very hot July
1870: A very dry summer
 

Edited April 27, 2017 by Weather-history
.

[Weather-history]

Philip Eden's article from 10 years ago

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1556805/Its-all-Aprils-fault.html

[Summer of 95]

2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

June 1992...who would have thunk it...i dont even remember this month but according to the met office it was indeed a warm one and at the time was provisionally the second warmest June on record..somehow it managed this with average sunshine at just 105%?

I remember it as being very dull and wet until about the 10th, then mostly sunny and warm until the end when the hot spell ended with a big storm. Quite a memorable month, I think it was reported at the time as the warmest June since 1976. It followed a May which had more or less the same weather pattern (dull and wet start, then hot and sunny, ending with storms). 

May and June 1992 were a decent pair of months, however the July and especially August were awful.