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Matthew.

Summer 2017 Discussion

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Posted (edited)

Whilst undergoing a warm first half of Spring our thoughts may turn to Summers prospects. I would love to see another May-August of 1989- Sunny and Warm.

Edited by reef
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My guess, a lot of low pressure, wet at times and cool, May to Sept period coming in at slightly below average temp wise

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I'm so glad we're guessing, as I haven't got a clue as to what'll transpire. But, having said that, I do have a certain preference: lots of dry, warm-hot weather with a good smattering of thunderstorms will do fine; the last two years' two-day-long bursts of intolerable heat & humidity can be too much for an old fart...

So, whatever you do, weather gods, make it consistent, eh?:D

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The Met O site suggests above average temperatures June-August with at or below normal rainfall!

link

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

By the 30 September we will know the answer

Above average T and below average rainfall would suit me personally but make for a lot of watering in the garden.

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Looking at the trends and how the spring is panning out..it will be either a warm/hot dry summer or cool and wet..i don't think it will be average in any way...over here it has average written all over it!

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Posted (edited)

Quite simple really, the closer to ENSO neutral we stay the higher the likelihood of a hot, dry summer with HP lingering around to our immediate S and E. The further away from ENSO neutral we go, the more chance of seeing some 'weather'. It's no coincidence that this benign spell of weather (stretching from autumn last year) has coincided with a weak ENSO.

Either way, I think the greatest potential for a hot spell is towards early summer with us descending into an earlier autumn this year.

EDIT: updated today, the Metoffice GLOSEA model looks to show slightly wetter than average conditions throughout the summer months

2cat_20170401_prec_months35_global_deter

Edited by CreweCold
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hot and sunny with three months of gross humidity.

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Speaking from a totally personal and IMBY perspective, I'd gladly take a re-run of summer 2015. :good:
It was pleasantly sunny here, and when it did go hot and humid, it went bang big time :D
But realistically speaking, as long as there is lots of usable weather, so the barbecue can get used, an with plenty of spiky storms in the mix, then I'll be happy :rolleyes:
One thing is for certain, I do not want a re-run of summer last year... As that really was a totally miserable gloom-fest :nonono:

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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Quite simple really, the closer to ENSO neutral we stay the higher the likelihood of a hot, dry summer with HP lingering around to our immediate S and E. The further away from ENSO neutral we go, the more chance of seeing some 'weather'. It's no coincidence that this benign spell of weather (stretching from autumn last year) has coincided with a weak ENSO.

Either way, I think the greatest potential for a hot spell is towards early summer with us descending into an earlier autumn this year.

EDIT: updated today, the Metoffice GLOSEA model looks to show slightly wetter than average conditions throughout the summer months

2cat_20170401_prec_months35_global_deter

An early autumn you say? :yahoo:
Sorry, I'll calm down now... Evening CreweCold :)
I wonder if the slightly wetter than average conditions shown are because of thunderstorms?

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1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

hot and sunny with three months of gross humidity.

Evening Lassie23 :)
Yeah... But think of the storm potential :bomb::D 

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

I wonder if the slightly wetter than average conditions shown are because of thunderstorms?

Hard to tell from the pressure anomaly

2cat_20170401_mslp_months35_global_deter

Possibly a slight bias towards continent meets Atlantic? 

I'll just add, I feel like this is first time in many summers that there is the potential for a 1995 scenario, maybe even a '76. This is, of course, not saying it's likely.

Edited by CreweCold
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33 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Evening Lassie23 :)
Yeah... But think of the storm potential :bomb::D 

evening D

You would think, but I only had five storms despite endless humidity last summer:doh:

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I predict something like 2006 or 2013, I cant see another June being any worse than last year and another summer being any worse than the last three 2014/5/6.

 

 

 

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Another warm, cloudy and humid benign summer with no weather extremes, that's how boring our climate has become.

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2 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Another warm, cloudy and humid benign summer with no weather extremes, that's how boring our climate has become.

suit me, hope it's right!

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June was pretty good last year..I think people get blinded sometimes.. from my recollection the first 2 weeks were fine and we had a good  4/5 days near the end of June..

It was vey wet  for around 10 days  in the middle though.. July wasn't that good..But August and September were also good..2016 wasn't a classic summer.But it wasn't as bad as summers previously..  We had a lot of summer   days last year..

I have no idea what 2017 will bring. My only positive is that we are having a north-westerly in April rather then June or July.. to me north-westerly  ruin summers.. we are on the wrong side of the Atlantic the colder side..Hopefully we will get more of south westerly this summer. Not always the driest. But at least its a warmer direction so in the sun it feels warm.

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10 years ago since that washout summer and the start of the run of mediocre/awful summers up to and including 2012 at least around here. That has gone quick. The exceptionally warm period from May 2006 to April 2007 ended with the washout crash of the May to July 2007. April 2011 to March 2012 was very warm despite that cool summer within it and that ended with the washout crash of April to August 2012.

Omen? Another washout crash coming?

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Just my own feeling but I can't see a washout period over summer. I think the mid-latitude blocking pattern will keep its hand in interchanging with the Atlantic. I'm thinking a really sunny June must come along sooner or later. Since 1976 we seem to lost the 40, 57, 75 very sunny Junes.

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I'm going with June the best month of summer this year, maybe something special. August the most unsettled.

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6 minutes ago, Summer 1976 said:

I'm going with June the best month of summer this year, maybe something special. August the most unsettled.

other way round I think, June looks like being slow to warm up, often is lately

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On 4/14/2017 at 03:39, Summer 1976 said:

Just my own feeling but I can't see a washout period over summer. I think the mid-latitude blocking pattern will keep its hand in interchanging with the Atlantic. I'm thinking a really sunny June must come along sooner or later. Since 1976 we seem to lost the 40, 57, 75 very sunny Junes.

what about June 2005??

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I see it all clearly now: Northern blocking taking us well into May, quite a cool period coming up. In essence repeating the pattern of Nov 16. Now as we move towards June the Northern blocking collapses and voila for June we have a spectacular month of mid-latitude blocking equaling a Flaming June:crazy: and a very reasonable July although less sure of the latter:D

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Posted (edited)

CFS sees June as potentially quite plumetastic 

glbz700MonInd2.gif

In sync with the GLOSEA model RE LP to west and HP to east

Edited by CreweCold
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weather experts warning that there is little sign of rain to come

 

so a summer like  2007 then? :sorry: 

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