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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards


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3 hours ago, LB1994 said:

Hi all, 

Long time reader and occasional poster about 4/5 years ago. Decided to sign back up and contribute to the discussions and reports for this storm season. 

I moved back to North Hertfordshire after 3 years in Brighton while at uni last August, was quite lucky with some overnight storms while I was there, in particular the night of 19/20 July last year. Hoping to get more home grown storms in this location as I seemed go miss out on the coast. 

Feels good to be back glued to the convective storm discussion thread. Tonight is looking interesting for the south east, but I feel I may be too far north for anything passing through. 

Thank you to all that contribute to forecasts etc 

Liam

 

Welcome friend. Exciting time to join back up. Storms making their way across the channel!

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My contribution to this evening.

What a fantastic night we had in central southern England, and many other places too! I've never seen storms of that intensity or frequency in April before! Anyway I thought I would share so

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1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Think he meant the member supercell 

:rofl:

for the OP.....if ever we need a homer simpson emoji!.... :doh:doh!

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The sky here has gone from clear blue to very unstable and dark looking in the past hour. Temp is around 22c. Cmon nightime storms...I'm waiting for you! :yahoo:

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1 minute ago, StormUpdate said:

thunderstruck. Should be seeing storms before 9pm in the sw storms have already hit. looks like 6pm will be the start of most of it

 

Welcome friend.

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Yep, second channel storm landfall imminent for the sw. It's all starting to kick off. Meanwhile over on lightningmaps those two northern france storms are absolutely insane! Constant lightning barrage (and those are only the ones the radar is picking up). :shok:

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1 minute ago, Windblade said:

Yep, second channel storm landfall imminent for the sw. It's all starting to kick off. Meanwhile over on lightningmaps those two northern france storms are absolutely insane! Constant lightning barrage (and those are only the ones the radar is picking up). :shok:

hopefully hits isle of white area! recon it will?

 

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Remember a fantastic thunderstorm last year on the 18th July we were under that mesoscale system that had developed over the channell and pushed into reading Aylesbury Wycombe places like that would be great if that happens again ☺️

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Clearly I have not made myself well enough known on this forum, I shall try harder :rofl:

As the rain moves away having barely dampened the ground, the skies have a much more thundery look to them as opposed to before the rain. A shower just north of Skipton may explode into life if forecasts are correct, keep an eye on that one.

 

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3 minutes ago, StormUpdate said:

hopefully hits isle of white area! recon it will?

 

Unlikely, steering flow will be NNE, for you/me we need something forming to the north west of the CI

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What this is showing is that the storms are not dying over the channel so sea temps are warm enough to sustain them on their journey over. This bodes well for the southeast later. :)

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1 minute ago, Windblade said:

What this is showing is that the storms are not dying over the channel so sea temps are warm enough to sustain them on their journey over. This bodes well for the southeast later. :)

Elevated storms so not routed in the boundary layer hence sea level temperatures can be ignored. 

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2 minutes ago, Windblade said:

What this is showing is that the storms are not dying over the channel so sea temps are warm enough to sustain them on their journey over. This bodes well for the southeast later. :)

No this shows storms are not surface based.

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the activity in the channel was flagged in the convective weather update , what was also suggested is that they may fizzle before reaching the M4 corridor just a case of watching

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