Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards

[Thunderstruck]

Well, here we are again. New season, new name (formerly Jcweather) and ready for some fun later. Hopefully anyway. It’s certainly nice and sunny here which will be helping with surface heating. Let’s hope we’re not disappointed, but I’m quite prepared to be...

[Mike Poole]

HIRLAM 6z has precipitation in Wales, NW 8pm, then overnight passing through central regions 1am.  

Moving NE from here later. Must admit I was expecting the overnight risk to be further east than this (i.e. missing me!). I'm interested in this model after it performed pretty well with the convective snow last month.  Cumulative precipitation over next 24 hours:

Edited April 21, 2018 by Mike Poole

[MP-R]

I can now confirm severe cloud and small rain drops and overall naffness here in North Somerset.

[A.J]

this mid-level cloud/crud drifting northwards over the west country will probably have a big inhibiting effect on potential SB convection further north unless it breaks up

[Windblade]

16 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Unfortunately the other parameters aren't quite there for supercell development. But nevertheless with such large CAPE values (for this time of the year anyway) there will be some prolific lightning.

Sounds good man.

The past few days although it's been really hot I've felt fine and able to cope as it's been a dry heat with very little moisture around (evident by the completely clear skies we've had). However, this morning feels completely different. I havn't seen any charts yet but humidity seems very high and although temps are a few degrees lower than the same time yesterday I already feel really, really hot and sticky. Today feels like theres so much more energy in the air and I can't help but get my hopes up now for some long lasting and powerful elevated stuff tonight. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Taken 5 mins ago, but some scattered convection breaking loose in Solihull.

 

[Windblade]

15 hours ago, Harry said:

My first time on in 2018! Hello all.

Agreed @John Hodgson I too saw some lovely mid level convection, some localised Ac fields and late evening some more pronounced convection. Definitely felt more humid today (I think so anyway).

Hopeful for tomorrow - got my fingers crossed! As often is the case I suspect it’ll be a now casting scenario rather than anything concrete. Am down in Dymchurch this weekend so hopeful for some clippers

Hey Harry. Nice to see you back friend. Hope your winter was a good one!

Not looking bad for the southeast tonight and you should have a spectacular view from Dymchurch (a very special place for me due to childhood memories so I know it extremely well). Have a good time mate.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Strikes in the channel oh yes

[TropicThunder]

All very cloudy and disappointing here, although still feeling quite humid.

[TJS1998Tom]

17 hours ago, Windblade said:

Possible supercell?

how big could storms get for Middlesbrough area at a guess would you say? 

[Harry]

16 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Hey Harry. Nice to see you back friend. Hope your winter was a good one!

Not looking bad for the southeast tonight and you should have a spectacular view from Dymchurch (a very special place for me due to childhood memories so I know it extremely well). Have a good time mate.

Cheers mate, hope you did too!

Heat is really beginning to crank up here now, humidity has lept up (or so it feels) despite a gentle breeze.

Chances for the SE look reasonable to me. Models keen to show precip outbreaks but coverage and timing varies wildly; anywhere between 18z and 01z and anywhere between one or two discrete cells to broader outbreaks.

Edited April 21, 2018 by Harry

[Windblade]

1 minute ago, TJS1998Tom said:

how big could storms get for Middlesbrough area at a guess would you say? 

Hard to say really as it depends on several factors although one of the forecasts (I think it might have been netweathers own?) did mention there was a small chance of a supercell.

[Windblade]

2 minutes ago, Harry said:

Cheers mate, hope you did too!

Heat is really beginning to crank up here now, humidity has lept up (or so it feels) despite a gentle breeze.

Chances for the SE look reasonable to me. Models keen to show precip outbreaks but coverage and timing varies wildly; anywhere between 18z and 01z and anywhere between one or two discrete cells to broader outbreaks.

Yeah, I spent most of it in hybernation, lol! Agreed on the humidity, feels like it's been cranked up to 11! I think you're perfectly placed for a good light show over the channel tonight. Just have a good feeling about this one.

[LB1994]

Hi all, 

Long time reader and occasional poster about 4/5 years ago. Decided to sign back up and contribute to the discussions and reports for this storm season. 

I moved back to North Hertfordshire after 3 years in Brighton while at uni last August, was quite lucky with some overnight storms while I was there, in particular the night of 19/20 July last year. Hoping to get more home grown storms in this location as I seemed go miss out on the coast. 

Feels good to be back glued to the convective storm discussion thread. Tonight is looking interesting for the south east, but I feel I may be too far north for anything passing through. 

Thank you to all that contribute to forecasts etc 

Liam

 

[Chris.R]

Wall-to-wall sun here and warming up quickly. Currently 19.6°C after a low of 5.7°C. 

[Wilxy]

Lots of mid level instability here guessing this is what will cause the storms later to the north!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Lots of mid level instability here guessing this is what will cause the storms later to the north!

Reminds me of the sky on the night of one of the big storms in 2015 (I think) - the one where Poole got pasted!

I was up near Luton and the sky was just this lovely thick blanket of instability and then it all went BANG!

[Gordon Webb]

looks like this cloud and rain from the channel is refusing to die a death and moving into parts of the midlands which surely isn't great news for those who wanted clear blue skies

[A.J]

12 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Reminds me of the sky on the night of one of the big storms in 2015 (I think) - the one where Poole got pasted!

I was up near Luton and the sky was just this lovely thick blanket of instability and then it all went BANG!

hopefully we might see something tonight FB?......you're in a better position for a direct hit, hopefully I might get a distant light show if it's relatively clear

[A.J]

thundery looking skies here, lots of thick Ac Cas and other assorted mid level cloud, but alas nothing exciting being generated

[Mapantz]

Nothing particularly exciting here. Low dewpoints. I'd rather have the sun back.

[Selliso]

Temp around 20 degrees in Trefriw, North Wales. First hint of cloud...

[Supacell]

Latest NMM not so promising for my neck of the woods. I therefore have the familiar conundrum of whether to stay put or head out. If I do head out I have the gamble of going north to catch storms that may fire across N Wales and push across NW England and into N England or head southeast for possible elevated storms later on.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, Supacell said:

Latest NMM not so promising for my neck of the woods. I therefore have the familiar conundrum of whether to stay put or head out. If I do head out I have the gamble of going north to catch storms that may fire across N Wales and push across NW England and into N England or head southeast for possible elevated storms later on.

If you ask me head southeast towards London ?

i’m getting The feeling we are really well placed for later but i’m still nervous about it

?

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

16 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

hopefully we might see something tonight FB?......you're in a better position for a direct hit, hopefully I might get a distant light show if it's relatively clear

I really really hope so... best case it spreads out and we get nice wide series of storms coming up so everyone has a bit of the action...