Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards

[Martin Auld]

Sup, I’m back for another summer of disappointment and the odd rumble of thunder. Seriously though this year better give me something decent ?. Hell of a storm over the Netherlands though

[Jordan S]

4 minutes ago, Martin Auld said:

Sup, I’m back for another summer of disappointment and the odd rumble of thunder. Seriously though this year better give me something decent ?. Hell of a storm over the Netherlands though

Looks like it's nearing the south east ..

[Martin Auld]

4 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Looks like it's nearing the south east ..

Probably won’t make it over the channel though, seems to have died all of a sudden 

[Jordan S]

2 hours ago, Martin Auld said:

Probably won’t make it over the channel though, seems to have died all of a sudden 

Some pretty heavy rain now crossing southern counties which the met office didn't forecast they said "mostly dry un til dawn"

[Jordan S]

4 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Some pretty heavy rain now crossing southern counties which the met office didn't forecast they said "mostly dry un til dawn"

This is what I made earlier showing what I thought would happen tonight.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Rinse and repeat for north Germany and the Netherlands tonight?

* Takes a quick look at the Eurostar website... *

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

If we all urinate in the North Sea will it help them cross later on?

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 11 Apr 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 12 Apr 2018

ISSUED 07:52 UTC Wed 11 Apr 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

... NE ENGLAND ...

Mid-level instability, with some impressive mid-level lapse rates, will move westwards across NE England this morning into S Scotland - but with a lack of any noteworthy forcing, deep convection seems unlikely and so no threat levels have been issued for now.

 

... S / SW ENGLAND ...

Sufficient insolation will help build a few hundred J/kg CAPE this afternoon, which combined with sea breeze convergence may allow a few heavy showers to develop along a W-E line, perhaps lingering into the early evening. Marginal mid-level lapse rates, and quite dry/warm upper levels may tend to limit the true depth of convection, and so while some heavy showers are possible, lightning may be rather isolated.

 

... EAST ANGLIA ...

Once again, thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across western Germany into the Netherlands, which will drift westwards across the North Sea. Weakening is expected, and so very little lightning activity may actually occur over land in England, but given some mid-level instability is still likely have included a LOW threat level for a few isolated lightning strikes as various pulses of showery rain move across/develop over East Anglia this evening and tonight. Overall conditions look a little less-conducive than during last night.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-04-11

[Windblade]

18 hours ago, Mapantz said:

The lack of activity surprises me again. Has anyone else noticed a theme occurring? There's been half a dozen days so far, that have shown convective promise, and it has failed to materialise. I hope this isn't going to be a trend as we move to the Summer.

Agreed. Convective weather have had warnings out most days for a couple of weeks now but absolutely nothing has materialised anywhere near here (been in the forecast zone plenty of days) .I really hope I don't have to wait for summer to see any stormy action, if I see any at all. I don't think the damp/drizzly conditions that have plagued us this past week have helped matters. Still plenty of time to go so trying not to be too dismissive, but just a bit concerned like yourself that seemingly good potential pretty much this whole fortnight has so far amounted to nothing.

Edited April 11, 2018 by Windblade

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 hour ago, Windblade said:

Agreed. Convective weather have had warnings out most days for a couple of weeks now but absolutely nothing has materialised anywhere near here (been in the forecast zone plenty of days) .I really hope I don't have to wait for summer to see any stormy action, if I see any at all. I don't think the damp/drizzly conditions that have plagued us this past week have helped matters. Still plenty of time to go so trying not to be too dismissive, but just a bit concerned like yourself that seemingly good potential pretty much this whole fortnight has so far amounted to nothing.

To me what seems each time is that the excess cloud cover have proved to have not broken quick enough/moved away quick enough. Seems to be a recurring theme to me. CAPE amounts have never looked particularly decent at any point over the last fortnight. It's been a shame because whilst we've had a lack of CAPE, there have been impressive levels of DLS and SRH which if there was any CAPE to tap into, there would be some impressive storms.

Hopefully next week we can develop good amounts of CAPE from strong diurnal heating and higher dewpoints etc and should see more lightning activity.

[Supacell]

I think it is quite normal for this time of the year to have periods of cold, damp and murky weather. The Atlantic traditionally dies down a little and so easterly winds become more common, unfortunately this means winds coming over a very cold North Sea (SST's ~5c) which causes mild air off the continent to cool and condense providing the UK (especially eastern parts) with persistent gloom. I think a slight south of east flow would have given the south some real warmth and thundery possibilities as there is not a lot of sea between the south-east of England and the NE of the continent. Unfortunately the air appears slightly north of east which is the worst possible direction. I remember many years where I have been feeling impatient in the wait for storms in April, this year is no exception. The latter half of April is normally better.

Next week a more southerly flow should help increase sunshine amounts and temperatures significantly, but that does not necessarily mean storms if high pressure is sitting over us.

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Don't mind If I do.

Under high pressure tho

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Even the shetlands get more thunder than Surrey this year so far  

[Hodgheg]

14 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Don't mind If I do.

Under high pressure tho

 

I got excited by this too, precip chart is always a good give away to nothing happening though. 

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2018-04-12 11:13:38
Valid: 12/04/2018 6AM TO 13/04/2018 6AM

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - DAY 1 (THURSDAY 12TH APRIL 2018)

Synopsis

A negatively-tilted upper trough extends SE and E across France, Spain and the western Mediterranean, with an upper level omega-shaped high extending north over NE Europe. Surface low pressure system covers central and western Europe beneath a ridge of high pressure over Scandinavia - with a strong SEly breeze off the North Sea bringing low cloud and cool temperatures to eastern UK, while warm air advection over central and eastern Europe brings increased instability to northern mainland Europe on northern edge of upper trough.

... AN ISOLATED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT ...

* Risk of hail, lightning, gusty winds and localised flooding ...

... DEVON & CORNWALL ...

Sunny spells here this afternoon bringing surface heating of moist airmass combined with sea breeze convergence inland from the Atlantic and Channel coasts may, as per model guidance, trigger some heavy showers with a risk of isolated lightning and also large spot rainfall totals leading to localised flash-flooding. These showers should fade after dark.

... E ENGLAND ...

A shortwave trough in the NWly mid-level flow, visible on WV imagery across Switzerland, NE France and SW Germany this morning moving NW, is forecast by models to trigger a band of thunderstorms across northern France and Low Countries this afternoon/evening, as it brings lift to warm moist surface-heated airmass. Some of these storms could spread NW across SE England, E Anglia, Lincs and NE England tonight, though there is a good deal of uncertainty over the extent of, if any, lighting activity, if strong enough mid-level instability can move across the North Sea. However, any strong elevated, perhaps electrified, convection making it to E England may pose of a risk of hail, gusty winds and localised flooding. Will not go higher higher than an isolated risk of thunderstorms for now.

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

[Super_Uwe]

Clouds beginning to bubble up in the distance. Potentially some fun and games down this part of the world later on, but we will see.

Apologies for the rubbish picture but it is hazy and I have a rubbish phone camera! Think possibly somewhere between Ivybridge and Tavistock? That's my guess anyway 

[Allseasons-Si]

A couple of sferics in Cornwall,two cells have developed in that area.

[Allseasons-Si]

A couple more sferics over Dartmoor National Park,they look like potent cells there now

as for later on i am keeping an eye on developements NE France through Belgium and into NW Germany.

http://beta.meteoradar.co.uk/satellite-rainradar#

Edited April 12, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[LightningLover]

NE France is starting to look interesting!

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

NE France is starting to look interesting!

Yes,you bet me to it,i was just about to comment on that

[Mokidugway]

Quite convective sky's this morning ,it's coming 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

It’s been grey across Surrey Hills, Thames valley and up into north London all day (I know this because I’ve had to drive everywhere) but my question is:

• will this affect our chances later?

[Allseasons-Si]

For the SE folk,initiation nr Brussels,Belgium now from the red circle,and the black circle where some more cells are getting going.

Edited April 12, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Super_Uwe]

Well it looks like parts of Dartmoor have got an absolute drenching over the past hour or two! Be interesting to hear from anyone who was stuck under some of those potent showers.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Absolute stormgasm charts on the GFS 12z!

These are the charts I live for aha, could be some very active buggers should any form!

Edited April 12, 2018 by Ben Sainsbury