Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards

[TJS1998Tom]

Just now, Windblade said:

Not showing on lightningmaps either now but definitely heard it, and another faint peel as I'm writing this.

Hmm, with me being in a risk area later from a post earlier in the page. Hopefully I'll see some sort of lightning 

[Windblade]

1 minute ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Hmm, with me being in a risk area later from a post earlier in the page. Hopefully I'll see some sort of lightning 

Hope so. Would be nice if I got to see some fork lightning this season.

[TJS1998Tom]

1 minute ago, Windblade said:

Hope so. Would be nice if I got to see some fork lightning this season.

Yeah, I've seen one. But I havent had a proper storm directly over me in the past two years, when we used to get some brilliant storms years beforehand

[Windblade]

Strike now showing on lightningmaps in Maidstone (outside forecasted zone). This is what I mean, data/charts/predictions are all great tools but sometimes you just have to go with your instincts, as unexpected stuff happens all the time with storms!

Edited August 22, 2017 by Windblade

[toggerob]

Any expectation on timings for the NW tonight? I got work in the morning so if there's a possibility something might pop up around here i'd rather be awake and alert for it, Manchester Airport just forecasting a 900ft cloud-base with drizzle for overnight.

[Windblade]

5 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Yeah, I've seen one. But I havent had a proper storm directly over me in the past two years, when we used to get some brilliant storms years beforehand

It's been like that here too but no one seems to have a definitive answer as to why. Still, this season's been much better than 2016 which was the worst year for storms for my area in my entire life.

Edited August 22, 2017 by Windblade

[TJS1998Tom]

Just now, Windblade said:

It's been like that here too but no one seems to have a definitive answer as to why. Still, this seasons been much better than 2016 which is the worst year for storms for my area in my life.

2016 was awful for us. At least this year has been an improvement even if its still not as much as I'd like. Hopefully it will be worth the wait one day. Still got some time left for a good one

[mike5900]

thunder here in sherborne

[LightningLover]

just had a elevated moderate shower.

[karyo]

Some really sharp showers developed just to the east of me.

[TJS1998Tom]

Is anything likely to come out from this or just rain?

[Windblade]

12 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

2016 was awful for us. At least this year has been an improvement even if its still not as much as I'd like. Hopefully it will be worth the wait one day. Still got some time left for a good one

Yes, I've seen some pulse storms this year, but they were all one or two flash and rumble affairs at the most. Caught some constant blue strobe flashes (but no thunder or rain) coming from a suspected distant nightime supercell over london which lasted two hours and later at 2am the same night got a direct hit mcs of our own, and seen a funnel cloud. Also missed two direct hit storms right over my house in the past two weeks which is really frustrating. That's pretty much my season so far. However, all the lightning I have seen has been IC. Not a single fork so far which I'm now deserate to see.

2016 I had one pulse storm with maybe one or two flashes and a night time mcs storm with green IC lightning I saw coming in late spring. Haven't seen a single fork for two years now. 

Edited August 22, 2017 by Windblade

[LightningLover]

more sferics to my north, if i was looking i might of seen them! (considering they are elevated) 

[TJS1998Tom]

Quite a few sferics are starting to appear down South now, guessing the majority are elevated so they wont be picked up. Would you say the rain near Nottingham is worth keeping an eye on?

[Windblade]

Just heard distant thunder again. Sounded like it came from the west somewhere. Those cells behind the shower I had earlier are approaching from that direction so I think one/some of them have electrified.

Edited August 22, 2017 by Windblade

[TJS1998Tom]

Hmm, seems to be intensifying a little near Nottingham

[Windblade]

4 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Quite a few sferics are starting to appear down South now, guessing the majority are elevated so they wont be picked up. Would you say the rain near Nottingham is worth keeping an eye on?

Ah, that's why some strikes are not on radar. I was starting to wonder if there was an issue!

[Nick F]

Nice to see reports of thunder and lightning in the SE of England, albeit isolated atm,  was not depicted on my forecast map, I had SW and central S England under general thunderstorm area. But not entirely surprised that mid-level destabilisation of warm moist plume is occurring given highest CAPE has been indicated toward S England but the general consensus from various quarters that the energy will be capped. Goes to show that models are still not great at simulating mid-level convection.

[Windblade]

Well, I'm going to bed shortly so I'll bid you all goodnight. Leaving the window a jar so if anything does come over I hopefully get woken. To echo what another user said (sorry, can't remember name) wake me at thunder o'clock. 

Goodnight all and good luck tonight.

[TJS1998Tom]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Nice to see reports of thunder and lightning in the SE of England, albeit isolated atm,  was not depicted on my forecast map, I had SW and central S England under general thunderstorm area. But not entirely surprised that mid-level destabilisation of warm moist plume is occurring given highest CAPE has been indicated toward S England but the general consensus from various quarters that the energy will be capped. Goes to show that models are still not great at simulating mid-level convection.

Do you think much will come off from this cell near Nottingham if it continues moving this direction?

[LightningLover]

The breeze has picked up, but there is a very thin layer of fog, and it is so humid...

lightning detected towards brighton!

[Thunderstruck]

Heavy rain here now, possible distant thunder heard a minute ago...

[LightningLover]

i swear i just heard very distant thunder...

[sunnijim]

Thunder and lightning just cracking off to my South. (Saltdean,Nr Brighton ) unexpected surprise,although the skies should have held a clue earlier this evening.

[Harry]

Bright flashes visible from here from the S coast cells