Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards

[ChezWeather]

Derbyshire, Notts, Yorkshire and Lincs all mentioned in Convective Weathers forecast, chance of Elevated thunderstorms early hours 

[LightningLover]

17 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Well, this is weird. Winds were forecast to be southeasterly, but its actually a southwesterly that on radar is blowing what looks like a developing squall line my way. I'm also in convective weathers risk zone and have a 52% of a storm tomorrow between 10am and 1pm according to netweathers 7 day forecast so theres a chance I'm still in the running. 

I also see Ireland took a pounding about an hour ago! I'll have to visit one summer. They seem to had had a lot of storms this year.  

Storm forecast showing some very good potential on Sunday!

Why is this image so small...

Edited August 22, 2017 by LightningLover
annoying image being annnoying

[TJS1998Tom]

11 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Derbyshire, Notts, Yorkshire and Lincs all mentioned in Convective Weathers forecast, chance of Elevated thunderstorms early hours 

Hopefully, not so sure though for me anyways

[Windblade]

25 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Storm forecast showing some very good potential on Sunday!

Why is this image so small...

Nice. 

The image is small as you've got the white bitmap surrounding the data. Take it into paint and drag the grey borders on the bottom and the right to the edge of the data, then save. Then re-upload (if you want to!). That will fix the issue. Hope this helps.  

Edited August 22, 2017 by Windblade

[Another Kent clipper]

Daft non-expert question: given the cloud in Manchester here, would it be possible to get on local high ground and see evidence of the craziness that's happening in Ireland right now?

[LightningLover]

3 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Nice.  The image is small as you've got the white bitmap surrounding the data. Take it into paint and drag the grey borders on the bottom and the right to the edge of the data, then save. Then re-upload (if you want to!). That will fix the issue. Hope this helps.  

Cheers! here we go, i made it readable:

 

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, Another Kent clipper said:

Daft non-expert question: given the cloud in Manchester here, would it be possible to get on local high ground and see evidence of the craziness that's happening in Ireland right now?

Himalayan size peak in the Pennines,then yes 

[Windblade]

Squall line is travelling very fast and developing nicely (getting heavier). Just about to cross the southwestern m25 border and headed straight for me. Would love to see what it actually looks like at this stage. Now all we need is a little energon, and a lot of luck. 

Edited August 22, 2017 by Windblade

[Windblade]

2 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Cheers! here we go, i made it readable:

 

No problem my friend. The more you decrease the white bitmap borders, the bigger the data will look until it gets to the original size.

[A.J]

1 minute ago, Windblade said:

Squall line is travelling very fast and developing nicely(getting heavier). Just about the cross the southwestern m25 border and headed straight for me. Would love to see what it actually looks like at this stage. Now all we need is a little energon, and a lot of luck. 

It's not a squall line to be fair, just a fragmented line of elevated convection, most of which isn't reaching the ground......fairly meagre mixed layer cape values infer a little instability but nothing to write home about....Instability for southern areas will increase overnight and as a CF approached from the west (currently over Ireland) it's certainly possible some destabilization may occur for southern  counties, but it's more likely to happen further north

[TJS1998Tom]

2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

It's not a squall line to be fair, just a fragmented line of elevated convection, most of which isn't reaching the ground......fairly meagre mixed layer cape values infer a little instability but nothing to write home about....Instability for southern areas will increase overnight and as a CF approached from the west (currently over Ireland) it's certainly possible some destabilization may occur for southern  counties, but it's more likely to happen further north

How do you reckon Lincoln is looking? As I doubt any precipitation apart from any light showers will do much for us

[Windblade]

4 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

It's not a squall line to be fair, just a fragmented line of elevated convection, most of which isn't reaching the ground......fairly meagre mixed layer cape values infer a little instability but nothing to write home about....Instability for southern areas will increase overnight and as a CF approached from the west (currently over Ireland) it's certainly possible some destabilization may occur for southern  counties, but it's more likely to happen further north

Seems to be growing at an alarming rate. We now have red colours appearing. Looks like a squall line to me?

Edit - on reflection perhaps you're right. It just looked for a while to be building rapidly. I'm going to keep an eye on it. I'm in the low risk zone so not ruling anything out.

 

Edited August 22, 2017 by Windblade

[A.J]

Just now, TJS1998Tom said:

How do you reckon Lincoln is looking? As I doubt any precipitation apart from any light showers will do much for us

it's worth having a look at Nick Finnis's convective forecast as well as staplehurst's over at convective weather....overnight elevated storms are a definite possibility there 

[A.J]

1 minute ago, Windblade said:

Seems to be growing at an alarming rate. We now have red colours appearing. Looks like a squall line to me?

no, it's not a squall line.....squall lines are narrow bands of high winds and/or storms normally triggered by forcing....there are no high winds associated by this fragmented band of elevated convection....observing here an hour ago, it gave convective rainfall here an hour or so ago with not a breath of wind.....and to be fair, it's not growing at an alarming rate, it's just transferring slowly ENE and filling in slightly with light to moderate ppn, a lot of which again is probably not reaching the ground 

compare an hour ago

and most recent

[Andy Bown]

Just posted in regional thread about mid level convection. 5 minutes later we have a downpour from the very edge of some towering AltCas and there are a few red cells on the radar. Could be worth keeping an eye on for areas further NE.

[A.J]

but keep the faith Windblade, never say never! 

[Windblade]

11 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

no, it's not a squall line.....squall lines are narrow bands of high winds and/or storms normally triggered by forcing....there are no high winds associated by this fragmented band of elevated convection....observing here an hour ago, it gave convective rainfall here an hour or so ago with not a breath of wind.....and to be fair, it's not growing at an alarming rate, it's just transferring slowly ENE and filling in slightly with light to moderate ppn, a lot of which again is probably not reaching the ground 

compare an hour ago

and most recent

Fair enough. Just to clarify, I'm talking about the line furthest to the south (not the larger one above it). Seems to getting heavier. I am zoomed in as far as you can go on netweathers radar which may be exaggerating the image somewhat, combined with my wishful thinking I'm probably seeing stuff that isn't there!

Edited August 22, 2017 by Windblade

[LightningLover]

Sferic south of IOW!

 

[MP-R]

Can see this tower growing to my east.

[TJS1998Tom]

Hmm, still not 100% sure for us. It's been cloudy all day but tonight we've had the sun coming out a bit and behind us looks a little brighter

[booferking]

Great storm here for the past 3 hrs lights in the house have been flickering on and off regularly roads are flooded outside.   STATUS ORANGE WARNING   from met.ie was spot on.

[WillinGlossop]

23c very humid overcast breeze picking up.... was 25/26c in Manchester earlier.... very humid... drizzly looking clouds over the hills.... murky.....  making paella and tortilla.... maybe some Spanish plume thundery stuff later....

[LightningLover]

Currently having a light, convective shower. still a lot of blue sky visible, too.

[A.J]

what's more interesting now is a line of elevated showers breaking out over wilts/dorset/hants.....looking promising on radar and indeed from my back garden looking SE, one of which already has an anvil

[A.J]

re-post to resize photos....looking SE at some decent Ac Cas turkey towers forming

 

and from other directions, a mixture of Ac, Ac Cas, and cirrocumulus, all good signs of some mid-level instability