Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards

[Another Kent clipper]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 16 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 17 Aug 2017

ISSUED 23:12 UTC Tue 15 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

 

 in fact a low-topped supercell cannot be ruled out which may produce an isolated tornado - this more likely over Republic of Ireland / Northern Ireland.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-08-16

I like it when supercells are not ruled out

[Dangerous55019]

Looks like we've got a thunderstorm breaking just south of Wrexham! 

Loads of people reporting lightning strikes around that area! 

[Chris.R]

Just now, Dangerous55019 said:

Looks like we've got a thunderstorm breaking just south of Wrexham! 

Loads of people reporting lightning strikes around that area! 

 I was going to ask if you'd seen anything. Only had 1 sferic on the radio though so far. 

[Dangerous55019]

2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 I was going to ask if you'd seen anything. Only had 1 sferic on the radio though so far. 

Evening @Chris.R 

I also heard the sferic on the radio, and the sky over there is currently very dark! But nothing is showing up (as yet) on the storm radar.

But loads of people on Facebook have confirmed lightning. 

[karyo]

At long last, I can see lightning and hear thunder! Not over me, just to the southeast of Manchester.

[toggerob]

Just spotted it from out the window here, wasn't expecting that at all as I was closing the curtains and next thing I see a flash thinking to myself someone was outside taking pictures :O was this forecast?

[Had Worse]

Just about to come over Glossop. Lightning Maps not indicating anything but it was a pretty loud rumble

[Summerstorm]

Just heard several big booms of thunder and had a couple of flashes here. 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 17 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Fri 18 Aug 2017

ISSUED 21:48 UTC Wed 16 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Cool air aloft associated with a shortwave moving NE-wards on Thursday will generate several hundred Jkg^-1 CAPE when combined with diurnal heating - however, probably slightly out of sync (too fast) with the diurnal cycle, with a peak in potential around early afternoon over eastern England, and reducing from mid afternoon for most areas except NE Scotland where the pivoting trough will clear slowest. Nonetheless, a few scattered showers are likely, perhaps weakly-electrified, focussed along areas of wind convergence (such as peninsula convergence from SW England - East Anglia) but probably fairly isolated given quite dry profiles.

Lightning potential increases further overnight as the main longwave trough swings eastwards, accompanied by much steeper lapse rates. SLGTs have been issued where an increase in deep convection is expected, with showers becoming numerous, some producing hail and lightning. Gusty winds will also be possible with the most intense cells.

 

SE England also needs monitoring for the potential for an upgrade to SLGT during the late evening hours as the approaching trough induces a wave along the old frontal boundary over France, perhaps allowing some elevated instability to move NE-wards over the English Channel and potentially get close to parts of SE England. Confidence is not high enough for an upgrade at present, but may be added if necessary in any later updates.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-08-17

[karyo]

1 minute ago, Summerstorm said:

Just heard several big booms of thunder and had a couple of flashes here. 

There are cells just south of you, heading northeast.

[Summerstorm]

10 minutes ago, karyo said:

There are cells just south of you, heading northeast.

Yep seen about 6-7 flashes of lightning and had about a dozen rumbles of thunder first storm here this year all be it not very impressive but I'll take it. 

[Dangerous55019]

Just out with the dog before going to bed, and I'm watching a distant thunderstorm between Chester and Wrexham. 

... Just seen a lovely anvil crawler. 

[karyo]

Just now, Summerstorm said:

Yep seen about 6-7 flashes of lightning and had about a dozen rumbles of thunder first storm here this year all be it not very impressive but I'll take it. 

Only a couple here and I am just about happy! lol

1 minute ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Just out with the dog before going to bed, and I'm watching a distant thunderstorm between Chester and Wrexham. 

... Just seen a lovely anvil crawler. 

I wish it was a bit earlier. I have to go to bed soon 

[toggerob]

Hopefully it'll keep sparking-away as it crosses the Peaks, already seen two lightning-flashes unexpectedly tonight but obviously more will be a bonus. 

[karyo]

1 minute ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Hopefully it'll keep sparking-away as it crosses the Peaks, already seen two lightning-flashes unexpectedly tonight but obviously more will be a bonus. 

There is a lot of activity from Chester to Stoke moving northeast.

[Another Kent clipper]

I hope tonight is the night. I'm in south central Manchester with not the best view from my biggest window

[Dangerous55019]

11 minutes ago, karyo said:

Only a couple here and I am just about happy! lol

I wish it was a bit earlier. I have to go to bed soon 

Evening @karyo 

I know exactly what you mean... But by the looks of it storms are breaking out all around this area! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

I can hear thunder coming from somewhere. Lashing it down.

[Cheshire Freeze]

OMG bright flash and boom!!!!

I'm out of NSC!!!

[karyo]

Just now, Dangerous55019 said:

Evening @karyo 

I know exactly what you mean... But by the looks of it storms are breaking out all around this area! 

hi Dangerous,

wow, Wales is the breeding ground!

[cheshire snow]

Just been woken up by the Thunder,and there is a lightning show going on.

C.S. 

[Chris.R]

 Still nothing here, need something to develop further west. Feels very nice outside though. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hahahahaha oh how I've missed this 

[toggerob]

More lightning-flashes to my west now.

[Chris.R]

The faintist of booms then